Thursday, July 31, 2008

Howie Mandell Would Be Proud...

...Because there have been more big deals this month involving big names, All-Stars, and future Hall of Famers than I can remember taking place in such a short period of time.

Consider this.

As of tomorrow, C. C. Sabathia, Rich Harden, Xavier Nady, Mark Teixeira, Ivan Rodriguez, Ken Griffey Jr., Jason Bay, and Manny Ramirez will all be wearing different uniforms than they were wearing on July 1st. And that's not including less exciting players like Joe Blanton, Damaso Marte, Casey Kotchman, Casey Blake, Kyle Farnsworth, Arthur Rhodes, Craig Hansen, and Andy LaRoche.

What else is interesting is that after all the chatter surrounding closer/set-up types like Huston Street, Brian Fuentes, and George Sherill, they're all staying put.

One last thought. With the Red Sox, Yankees, White Sox, Angels, Phillies, Marlins and Dodgers all making deadline moves, you wonder what will happen to contending teams that decided to stand pat, like Tampa, Minnesota, New York, St. Louis, and Arizona. Just because you make a trade doesn't mean you're automatically going to start winning. But if teams like the Rays, Mets, Cards and D-Backs fade in the season's final two months, they might wish they had made a move, come October.

Saturday, July 26, 2008

Things Just Got Interesting

Wow, talk about story lines in the AL East.

The Rays snapped their 7-game road losing streak in Kansas City and now lead the Sox by a full game...the Sox got David Ortiz back after a nearly two-month absense but still got shut out by the Yankees 1-0...and during the game the Yankees pulled off a 6-player trade acquiring Xavier Nady (a much-needed righty bat) and Damaso Marte (a much-needed lefty reliever) from Pittsburgh.

Oh, by the way...the Rays, Sox, and Bombers are now separated by just 3 games. Tampa and New York each have 60 games remaining and Boston has 58.

Now the question is, which team (or teams if Minnesota, Texas, Detroit, Oakland, or Toronto get hot...they're all within 7.5 of the Wild Card) will be on the outside looking in come October? Does Tampa have enough experience and offense to finish strong? Will Boston's bullpen hold up and will its lineup wake up? And can New York recover from its litany of injuries and continue to ride Moose and Joba to a 14th straight playoff appearance?

I think most people were expecting August and September to be a dogfight in the AL East, but I don't think too many were expecting a third pooch in the ring.

Tuesday, July 22, 2008

A Manny Ramirez Fact Very Few People Know

So, apparently one of my friends picked the music Manny Ramirez has played when he comes to the plate during home games.

Impossible you say? Think again.

For the seven of you who are loyal Basebloger readers, you'll recall my trip to Fenway a month ago. During that post, I mentioned how I thought it was odd that out of every song on the planet, Manny strides to the plate to "Zombie" by the Cranberries. I assumed it would be some Latin song, or perhaps a rap song, but not a 1995 chart-topper by an Irish alt-rock band. Well, now I know why.

The story begins with a guy by the name of Scott Rosier. He works in sales for the Baltimore Orioles, and I know him through fantasy baseball. Despite how he looks in this Mustache Day 2008 picture (courtesy of "It's Not Wrong") he is neither a professional wrestler, police officer, or serial killer.

So apparently Scott was pretty chummy with the guy who is in charge of music at Camden Yards. One night they were out at a bar when Scott suggested to the guy that he play "Zombie" whenever the opposing team's pitching coach visited the mound (playing off the "in your head" lyrics). The guy loved the idea and the story goes, he immediately put it to practice while the Red Sox were in town.

Prepare yourself, because this is where the story gets fantastic.

It's the middle innings. Manny's in left, and his pitcher is in a jam, so the Sox pitching coach heads to the mound when the song comes over the PA system. Apparently (although not surprisingly, given Manny's penchant for becoming distracted at crucial points in a baseball game) he was simply mesmerized by what he heard...so much so that the next day, he actually went into the O's clubhouse, tracked down the team's music guy and asked what the song was because he absolutely loved it (and he communicated all this in Spanglish, mind you). Well, the guy ended up burning Manny a CD of "Zombie" which he proceeded to take back to Fenway and it's been his "now batting" music ever since.

That, my friends, is a story.

Monday, July 14, 2008

It's In The Books

The first half is officially over and things are starting to return to normal. Chipper Jones is no longer flirting with .400 and the Tampa Bay Rays are no longer in first place in the AL East. Still, a lot can happen in the final 65-or-so games of the '08 season and many of the major awards races are still really close. But at this point, these guys have the upper hand...

AL MVP - Josh Hamilton (.310, 21 homeruns, 95 RBI)
I had to count some dangling chads on this one, because Hamilton and teammate Ian Kinsler are separated by an even smaller margin than Dubbya and Al Gore were in 2000. Both hitters are to thank for a surprisingly good Texas team, which enters the break above .500. Both have been incredible run producers, and both have been good in the clutch. I'm giving the edge to Hamilton though because in my opinion it's inherently harder to drive in runs than to score runs. Good pitchers bear down with men on base and in scoring position and bad pitchers pitch around the middle of the order. But no pitcher has been able to contain Hamilton, who enters the break on pace to drive in 162 runs this season. Only 11 players in major league history have driven in more in a single season and with the exception of Manny Ramirez in 1999, all of them played before 1938. That's how prolific Hamilton's been. That's why he's my mid-season MVP. Also receiving votes: Kinsler, Carlos Quentin, Grady Sizemore

NL MVP - Hanley Ramirez (.311, 23 homeruns, 80 runs, 23 steals)
What doesn't this guy do well? The answer is...not much. He's one of just two players at the break with 20+ homeruns and 20+ steals (a man named Grady is the other). He has more bombs, steals, and runs scored than Lance Berkman (and is on a competitive team) and has a higher average, more runs, and more steals than Chase Utley. At the beginning of the season, I was guilty of thinking that without Miguel Cabrera, Ramirez's numbers would drop off a bit. I won't make that mistake again. Also receiving votes: Berkman, Utley, Albert Pujols

AL Cy Young - Justin Duchscherer (10-5, 1.82 ERA, 0.87 WHIP)
Perhaps this is my Oakland bias shining through here. Or perhaps it's the fact that I like pitchers who don't allow baserunners. JD's WHIP is silly. A starter allowing 6 baserunners for every seven innings pitched is absolutely unheard of these days. And if you want further proof that he's been the best of the best, look at his game log. His "worst" outing of the year is either his May 18 start in Atlanta (3 earned over 5) or his May 1 start in LA (6 runs, but only one earned over 5, in a win against the Angels). Who cares if he doesn't get many strikeouts? His stuff is dirty. Also receiving votes: Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay, Mariano Rivera

NL Cy Young - Edinson Volquez (12-3, 2.29 ERA, 126 K's)
Talk about your classic case of "boy, that trade sure benefitted both teams," Volquez has been to the Reds what Josh Hamilton has been for the Rangers. He's leading the league in ERA, he's second in wins, and he's tied for third in K's. And you thought we'd be saying that about Johan Santana this time of year? Also receiving votes: Tim Lincecum, Dan Haren, Cole Hamels, Brandon Webb

AL ROY - Evan Longoria (.275, 16 homeruns, 53 RBI)
As good as advertised, if not better. He's become Delmon Young before Delmon Young has become Delmon Young. Plus he runs a little bit (6 steals), plays a magnificent third base, and was selected to the All-Star game after just 300 big league at-bats. Not bad. Also receiving votes: Jacoby Ellsbury, David Murphy

NL ROY - Geovanny Soto (.288, 16 homeruns, 56 RBI)
So Evan Longoria is an All-Star, huh? That's nice. Soto is an All-Star starter! He's far and away the cream of the NL newbie crop, and he's leading all rookies in OPS on a first-place team. The one chink in his armor? He's only thrown out 15 of 58 base stealers- third worst for qualifying NL catchers. As long as he keeps raking, I'm sure the Cubbies will deal with it. Also receiving votes: Kosuke Fukodome, Jair Jurrjens

AL LVP - Paul Konerko (.217, 9 homeruns, 34 RBI)
Yes, he's missed about 25 games. But the White Sox have missed his big bat in the other 68 he's actually played in. I was about to write that PK is a guy who's been a lock for 35 and 100+ batted in for the last few years, but that's actually not true. His homerun total will likely drop for a 4th straight year this season, his average- for a third straight year, and his RBI total- for a second straight year. These are surprising trends for a guy who turned just 32 in spring training. Also receiving votes: Robinson Cano. Edgar Renteria, Chone Figgins

NL LVP - Andruw Jones (.164, 2 homeruns, 10 RBI)
Usually, I don't like to give these awards to guys who've been hurt, but Jones has redefined what it means to be terrible. During a 7-year stretch from 2000 to 2006, he averaged more than 37 homeruns and 109 RBI a season. Last year when he fell off to 26 and 94 with a .222 average, I thought it was an abberation and so did the Dodgers. Now, I'm not so sure because he looks so absolutely clueless at the plate. Case and point- he's striking out once every 2.8 at bats this year and has twice as many wiffs as hits! He'll be a free agent at the end of the year and his list of potential suitors will be exponentially smaller than everyone would have imagined just a few years ago. Like Konerko, his rapid decline is also surprising considering he's just 31. Also receiving votes: Eric Byrnes, Ryan Zimmerman, Khalil Greene

AL Cy Anora - Joe Blanton (5-12, 4.96 ERA, 1.42 WHIP)
At the beginning of the season the thinking was, the A's would try to move Blanton, a useful innings eater, to a playoff contender right around the trade deadline. Now, they'd probably have a hard time trading him for a bucket of pearls and an L-screen. Blanton, while still making all his starts, has been remarkably hittable this season, although it's worth noting his secondary numbers from his '08 campaign are strikingly similar to his '06 campaign when he won a career-high 16 games. That ain't gonna happen this time around. And with all the young arms in Oakland (Sean Gallagher, Trevor Cahill, Brett Anderson, Henry Rodriguez, Gio Gonzalez) JB's days as a starter in the Bay Area may be limited. Also receiving votes: Erik Bedard, Livan Hernandez

NL Cy Anora - Aaron Harang (3-11, 4.76 ERA, 1.40 WHIP)
Harang was one of the few guys in baseball who has been consistentlty good, consistently healthy, and consistently unnoticed for the last few years. Unfortunately all three of those are out the window this year. He's on the DL now with a bad forearm. It's going to take a miracle for him to get to .500. And he's unlikely to hit 200 K's or 200 IP for the first time since 2005. Oh by the way, he's already allowed 20 homeruns. Also receiving votes: Barry Zito, Brett Myers, Bronson Arroyo (huh, maybe that's why the Reds are so bad), Roy Oswalt

Wednesday, July 9, 2008

C.C. And Richie Rich

With the trade deadline still 22 days away, we've already seen two potentially race-changing deals involving two potential Game 1 World Series starters...C.C. Sabathia to the Brewers for slugging outfielder Matt LaPorta and 3 other prospects, and Rich Harden to the Cubs along with reliever Chad Gaudin for Sean Gallagher and 3 other prospects.

The Cubs were the better team before these deals were completed and because they made a better trade than Milwaukee did, should be the better team the rest of the season (and next year).

Yes, Harden carries an injury risk. But ever since missing a month with a strained shoulder muscle, he's been healthy, he's been as good as anybody, and in general his ceiling is much higher than Sabathia's. True, Sabathia is the reigning Cy Young award winner and true, he is a workhorse, but all things being equal, Harden has Santana-esque stuff without Santana-esque mileage on his arm, whereas Sabathia is "7 innings pitched, 3 earned, 7 K's, 2 walks" good.

Another reason the Cubs made the better trade is because, unlike Sabathia, they're not renting Harden for the next 2 and a half months. Harden's deal doesn't expire until 2009 and being the bigger-market team, the Cubs have a much better chance of re-upping with him than the Brew-Crew does with Sabathia.

And the final reason the Cubs made out better is because unlike Milwaukee, they didn't give up any front-line prospects to make their move. Matt LaPorta could be a poor man's Ryan Braun, and soon. Add him to Grady Sizemore and Victor Martinez, and Cleveland's lineup could be in pretty good shape for the forseeable future. The Cubs gave up Gallagher, speedster Eric Patterson, Matt Murton, and minor league catcher Josh Donaldson- none of whom were big pieces of the Chicago puzzle this year, although Gallagher has the best pedigree.

That's not to say that the A's got a bunch of chumps, though. In Gallagher, they get a strikeout-an-inning guy who will likely benefit from his move to the pitcher-friendly Bay Area. Patterson may take over for Mark Ellis in a year or so, Murton gives them a strong arm and bat to play alongside youngsters Travis Buck and Carlos Gonzalez in the Oakland outfield, and Donaldson is still a few years away.

Say what you will about "Moneyball" and Billy Beane. But as an A's fan, I definitely don't hate this trade. Beane has a knack for getting rid of good pitchers at just the right time. For proof, see Mulder, Mark...Hudson, Tim...and Zito, Barry. He got good value for each of those guys, as he did for Dan Haren last winter. Now, he sells Harden when he's healthy and his value is at its highest and although he didn't get a blue-chip prospect, he did get four serviceable players in return.

What'll be really interesting to see now is (a) if Oakland moves any other players (Huston Street?, Joe Blanton?) and (b) if St. Louis makes any moves in the next 3 weeks to keep up with the Joneses in the division. After all, they're just 3.5 back (a half game up on the Brewers) and starting to get their pitchers healthy.
One final thought. What's going through your head if you're a hitter on the lowly Reds, Pirates, or Astros right now?