An Impact Move For The Mets? No Bay!

Jason Bay and the Mets have agreed on a 4-year, $66 million dollar deal according to WFAN. 

While I'm sure New York fans are pleased, this move does not make them the favorites (a) to win the NL East, (b) the NL Wild Card, or (c) even finish above .500. 

Let's not forget- this is a team that lost 90 games a year ago.  Out of the 16 NL teams, their pitching staff finished 12th in ERA, 11th in quality starts and batting average against, second-to-last in walks allowed, and third-to-last in baserunners per inning.  And so far all they've done to address these deficiencies in a pitching-rich division is sign Kelvin Escobar and lose J.J. Putz to free agency.

True, Bay has played in at least 145 games for each of the last 5 seasons and for his career, he averages 33 homeruns, 107 RBI, 12 steals, and a .387 OBP per 162 games played.  But let's not forget Bay is switching from the 8th most offense-friendly park in baseball (Fenway) to the 9th worst (Citi Field) so to book him for another .275/30+/100+ season would be presumptious.  Just look what Citi Field did to David Wright last year.

The biggest factor in New York's success (or lack thereof) in 2010 is less likely to be Bay's production, but rather the production and health of Jose Reyes.  If he's on base and running in front of the likes of Beltran, Wright, and Bay- the Mets might be able to out-slug their opponents 82 times.  But if he's not- they might not.

Bottom line...Bay is a good player but he's not a franchise-saver.  And worst of all for the Mets, he can't pitch.

Arms Race

If today was Sunday, April 4th and not Thursday, December 24th, we would be just hours away from the start of the 2010 baseball season with the defending champion Yankees visiting Fenway Park on ESPN's Sunday Night Baseball.  Unfortunately, we have to wait 101 days for that to happen.  But with New York and Boston adding big-name starters to already talented pitching staffs this month, it's not too early to start the debate: whose is better right now?

First- where things stand.  If the season started today, Boston's rotation would likely look something close to this:

Josh Beckett
Jon Lester
John Lackey
Daisuke Matsuzaka
Clay Buchholz/Tim Wakefield/Boof Bonser

While New York's will probably take the form of something resembling this:

C.C. Sabathia
A.J. Burnett
Javier Vazquez
Andy Pettitte
Joba Chamberlain/Phil Hughes/Chad Gaudin

My first impression is how similar these rotations are.  Both boast big-name, World-Series-champion names at the top of the rotation...high-ceiling-when-healthy-veterans in the middle...and full-of-promise young guns at the back end.  So at first glance, there's no glaring front-runner.

Breaking it down slot-for-slot though is a different story.  When comparing number one starters, the edge has to go to Sabathia.  C.C. was everything he was supposed to be last season (19 game winner, low ERA, ton of innings) whereas Beckett was inconsistent (11-3, 3.35 before the break...6-3, 4.53 after...awful in April, brilliant through July, bad in August, good in September).  Both are capable of being Cy Young contenders in 2010 but right now, the edge goes to Charles Carsten and New York.

At number two, Jon Lester was the anti-Beckett for the Sox last year, having a rough first two months but then settling down nicely and pitching more like a number one the rest of the way (including his one and only postseason start).  He also led the team in strikeouts.  Burnett didn't have as many K's as Lester (which is surprising, considering that's one of his specialties) and also had a higher ERA and WHIP, plus he was much more hit-or-miss in '09 (postseason included).  So at number two, the edge goes to the Sox.  And for Yankee fans who argue Lester is the number one ahead of Beckett, but still not as good as Sabathia, you're right.  But Beckett is still better than Burnett.  So either way, the teams are 1-1 after their first two starters.

I'm going to do third and fourth starters as a group because there really is no clear cut number three or number four just yet on either team.  For the Sox, it probably will be Lackey at three given his immense contract but I wouldn't be shocked to see Dice-K outpitch him and gain the spot.  For the Yanks- same thing.  Vazquez is the new guy and has better stuff, but Pettitte has the better track record in New York.

As for whose combo is better, this really is open to some interpretation but I'm going to lean Boston and here's why.  Over the last five years the 31-year-old Lackey really hasn't had a "bad" season.  He hasn't had more than one "excellent" season, but he's always been good.  His ERA has always been sub 3.90, he's always been a decent strikeout guy and he's been a bulldog in the postseason.  Is he worth what he got?  No.  Is he a lock to make 32 starts?  No.  But will he work nicely here?  I think so.  And it's the same thing for Dice-K.  He's not the future Hall of Famer the Sox paid for, but as a number three/four he's also pretty serviceable.  It will also be very interesting to see what kind of year he puts together in 2010 if he's completely healthy.  His '07 was a learning year, his '08 was lucky, and his '09 was a wash due to arm trouble.  But, he's only 29 and we assume he'll enter '10 at 100 percent.  Even Yankee fans wouldn't be shocked if he wins 15 games, has a 3.50 ERA and a bunch of strikeouts, which would basically be the average of his '07 and '08 seasons.

The Yankees just can't be 100% sure what they're going to get from Vazquez and Pettitte.  Javy was terrible (granted, pitching through pain) in his previous stop in New York and shifts from a very pitcher friendly park to a very hitter friendly one.  It's also worth noting that in three seasons in the AL in the last five years, his ERA was 4.84, 3.74, and 4.67.  For his career, he is just 3 games over .500 and has allowed nearly a hit an inning.  Plus he turns 34 halfway through next season.  That's not to say he can't follow up his stellar '09 with a comparable 2010, but I would be absolutely floored if his ERA was under 4 this season, let alone under 3.  With Pettitte, it's not an issue of what to expect.  He's spent 12 of his 15 excellent big league seasons as a Yankee.  With the exception of his rookie season and an injury-shortened '02, he's never won fewer than 14 games and his career ERA is just a shade under 4.  The problem is, he turns 38 in June.  To his credit, he had a great second half of '09.  But he was bad (4.59 ERA) at home, not great in September, and unreliable in the postseason.  Maybe he has another Pettitte-like 14-10, 4.15 ERA season in 2010, but he's getting to the age where stuff starts to fade.  The biggest thing New York has in its corner is health.  Javy and Pettitte have been incredibly healthy lately whereas Lackey and Dice-K both struggled with injuries as recently as last season.  But given the age advantage of the Sox starters, plus their potential ceilings when healthy, it's the Boston by a nose.

At number five, I say it's a push because we just don't know what to expect from these guys, nor do we know from which exact guys to expect it.  In 16 starts last year Buchholz, the Sox presumptive number five, was 7-4 with a 4.21 ERA and a K:BB of less than 2:1.  He got tagged for 6 earned or more 4 times but at the same time, he had a 10-start-stretch where he made 9 quality starts.  He's only 25 and already has a no-hitter on his resume so we know he can pitch.  We just don't know if he's ready to make 25+ starts yet.

In New York, 24-year-old Joba Chamberlain had a 2009 that has to be considered disappointing.  In 31 starts, he logged just 156 1/3 innings, an average of just 5 innings per appearance.  He finished a pedestrian 9-6 with a 4.75 ERA, a K:BB of less than 2:1, allowed 21 homeruns, and more than 3 baserunners every 2 innings.  What's absolutely staggering though is a quick glance at his splits when he's a starter versus when he's a reliever.  Over his short career (slightly less than 300 innings) he has a 1.50 ERA, .182 BAA, and K:BB of nearly 4:1 in 50 relief appearances.  But over his 43 starts, his ERA balloons to 4.18, BAA rises to .266, and K:BB dips to 2:1.  So whether we'll see him at the beginning of games or at the end remains to be seen, but there's no denying the talent is there.  Another contender, 23-year-old Phil Hughes has a shot at the rotation too, but like Joba, seems much better suited coming out of the pen.  Last year his ERA was 5.45 in 7 starts, compared to just 1.40 in 44 relief appearances (the first time he'd relieved).  In fact, in 28 career starts over three seasons, his ERA is 5.22 and he's a game under .500.  So while it's understandbale that the Yanks would rather see one of these guys make it as a starter, their performances tell much different stories.  New York might have to settle for having a dynamite set-up man and closer for the next 10 years.

Are these teams done building their 2010 rotations?  Hard to say.  I don't see the front-ends changing much, but depending on injuries, player development, and needs at the back end...anything is possible.  For now, I give the edge to Boston.  We'll see what happens in 101 days.

Is That The Best Atlanta Could Do?

Javy Vazquez is headed back to New York and all the defending champs had to give up to get him was Melky Cabrera (plus throw-in reliever Mike Dunn and a player to be named). 

Melky Cabrera...for a guy who was second in the NL in strikeouts last year and got votes for Cy Young.

Now, if the Braves were giving up the 2004 version of Vazquez (his one and only year as a Yankee) when he had a 4.91 ERA and just 150 strikeouts in 198 innings, I'd say this deal wouldn't be quite so lopsided.  But the 2009 version of Javy finished top-5 in wins, K's, WHIP, CGs, IP, and was 6th in ERA- in other words- he's coming off a career year.

Cabrera is, at best, a useful defensive player.  But he is also an average-to-below average offensive player and headed to a team in desperate need of sluggers.  True, he's just 25.  But he's gotten 400+ at-bats each of the last 4 seasons (and played in 150+ games twice).  During that span, he's never reached 15 homeruns, never stolen 15 bases, never scored 80 runs (in the Yankee lineup, mind you), never hit 30 doubles, never batted above .280, never driven-in 75, never topped 60 walks, and never slugged .420.  He is not currently, nor do imagine him ever becoming, an impact bat.

I know the Braves were looking to move a starter.  Even without Vazquez, they still have Tommy Hanson, Derek Lowe, Tim Hudson, Jair Jurrjens, and Kenshin Kawakami to go along with new relievers Billy Wagner and Takashi Saito...so their staff is still the deepest in the division (if not the league) 1 through 5.  But their lineup is also one of the thinnest.  It features Brian McCann, Chipper, Nate McLouth and a lot of unproven/unexciting guys everywhere else.  By moving Javy they had a chance to remedy that.  But in my opinion, they just blew it.

NOW it's getting interesting!

Two (apparent) huge developments today involving some of the biggest arms in the game.  John Lackey is reportedly headed to the Red Sox for slightly more than $82.5 million over 5 years.  And perhaps in an even bigger deal, Roy Halladay is reportedly headed to Philadelphia in a 3-team deal that would send Cliff Lee to Seattle and prospects north of the border.

My knee-jerk reaction is as follows.  That's a lot of money and years for Boston to give to a 31-year-old pitcher who won 11 games and had an ERA north of 3.80 last season, and in gaining Halladay but losing Lee, the Phillies haven't really gained a whole lot of ground in their rotation.  Lee wot 7 times in 12 starts with the Phillies and had a 3.39 ERA and was even better in the postseason...4-0 with just 33 baserunners allowed in 5 starts.

Bad news for the LA Angels on a couple of fronts.  They didn't get either starter and they've now lost two players they liked (Chone Figgins and Cliff Lee) to in-division rival Seattle. 

Former A's On The Move

2004 AL ROY Bobby Crosby inked a one-year-deal to play in baseball purgatory (Pittsburgh) next season.  As an Oakland fan, I wish him well and wish him good health most of all.  But at this point, he's probably fortunate to get a guaranteed big league contract above the minimum pay rate.  Including 2004 he has played in 100+ games just twice.  Since that year, he has yet to hit double digit homeruns again and his career OBP is .305 in more than 2,600 plate appearances.  More than once this decade, I've said during an offseason, "if Bobby Crosby can just get 600 AB's this year..."  Now, I wonder if the numbers would even be worth the wait.  Despite all that, I'd love to see him hit .270 with 25 bombs for the Pirates in 2010.

Another oft-injured A, Rich Harden, appears headed to one of the busiest teams this winter- Texas.  He would effectively replace Kevin Millwood in the rotation and if healthy (which is kind of like saying if Democrats and Republicans would just agree on a direction for health care reform...) he could anchor the staff on a dangerous Ranger club which will also feature, apparently, former Bostonian Mike Lowell playing somewhere in the infield.  Harden is the ultimate talent tease- so good when he's in service, but rarely in service for an extended period of time.  The 28-year-old has averaged 9.4 strikeouts per 9 innings pitched for his career.  He also has a 3.39 ERA and .220 BAA over 750+ innings pitched.  For a frame of reference, these numbers are better than Johan Santana's career stats (granted, smaller sample size).  Had Harden racked up these totals over, say, four seasons, we'd be talking about a potential future Hall of Famer.  Problem is, it's taken Richie Rich parts of seven seasons to do it.  So the Rangers will hold their breath, roll the dice, and get the ice machine ready for #40.

I'll keep this short...

If someone can give me ONE compelling reason why Millwood-to-the-O's makes sense for Baltimore, I will mail you a $20 dollar bill.

Here are the facts...

-Mill turns 35 in a coupla weeks (check minus)
-The gave up a soon-to-be 28-year-old former closer and player to be named later to get him (check-minus)
-Last time I checked, Boston and New York still look good on paper the next few years (check minus)
-Last time I checked, the O's were "committed" to a youth movement

Ball's in your court, blogosphere...and "he's their 2010 Opening Day starter" doesn't cut it as a viable excuse.

Grander(son) Slam For The Yanks?

Finally!  FINALLY!  The Yankees have found a way to land a big name during the offseason.

Poor Bronx Bomber fans have had to suffer an excruciating month-plus since winning the World Series, and almost an entire year since their last big-name offseason "get."  But now, their wait is over.  Their patience, rewarded.  Curtis Granderson, appears to be headed to New York...concrete jungle where dreams are made of...there's nothing you can't do..now you're in New York (and so on, and so forth).

Breaking down the 3-team deal, it's unclear who the true winner is because there's so much young talent involved, but here's what we know.  New York gets Granderson, a guy who can play center field but a guy who, offensively, has been somewhat enigmatic during the course of his career.  Is he the guy who had a putrid-for-a-top-of-the-order-type .321 OBP last year with 30 bombs and 141 wiffs or is he the guy who seemed destined for superstardom just two years ago when he hit .302 with 122 runs, and 84 XBH?  I dunno.  But what I do know is that his OPS and his runs totals have both dipped for 3 straight seasons and for his career, he averages a strikeout every 4.2 at-bats.

Tim Kurkjian had a good point on SportsCenter just now, though.  He said in the Yankee lineup, all Granderson has to be is good, not great- a defensive upgrade over Johnny Damon (check) and a guy who won't let the bright lights and big city atmosphere become a distraction (based on his character to date, we can mark this as a check, too).  For the record, Damon went .282/24/82 with 12 steals last year.  There's no reason to think Granderson won't at least match that, plus he's 8 years younger, so we can only presume he will be an upgrade.

The other players (and teams) involved in this deal are fascinating too.  The Diamondbacks will add Detroit's Edwin Jackson and New York's Ian Kennedy to a rotation that already features Dan Haren and Brandon Webb.  After years of hype and promise, Jackson finally put it together last year.  He won 13 games, topped 200 IP for the first time in his career, and notched 161 strikeouts with a respectable 1.26 WHIP.  He's only 26 years old, but his ERA did rise in every single month of the '09 season.

Kennedy is about to turn 25 and hasn't logged 60 career big league innings, but has been a guy on New York's radar for the last few seasons, despite battling injuries on and off in 2009.  He's no lock to make the rotation out of camp, but if given the opportunity, could turn in a Jackson-in-'09 type year in 2010.

Detroit, according to ESPN's Keith Law, is the early front-runner for "team that made out the best" in this transaction.  They dump Granderson's salary.  They get the mega-hyped 25-year-old flamethrower Max Scherzer from Arizona, along with 23-year-old reliever Daniel Schlereth.  On top of that, they get workhorse reliever Phil Coke from the Yanks and one of their top prospects, outfielder Austin Jackson.

Scherzer has electric stuff, a violent motion, and 240 career strikeouts in 226 1/3 career innings at the major league level so his ceiling could be quite high and in Detroit, he will compliment Justin Verlander quite nicely.  Schlereth is a lefty, was the 26th player taken in the '08 draft, and also averaged more than a punch an inning in limited action last year (18 1/3 innings).  Coke, another lefty, made 72 appearances for the champs last year, notched 21 holds and finished with a WHIP just a touch over 1.00 but did allow 10 homeruns in 60 innings.  And Jackson hit .300 at Triple-A last year with more than 20 steals and 65 RBI.  In other words, he could be a less powerful, more disciplined version of Granderson, and soon.

Bottom line...the Yankees upgrade defensively, perhaps a little bit offensively, and definitely get younger but it costs them an aging-prospect-starter, a reliable lefty set-up man and one of their top offensive prospects who might end up being close to as good as they guy they got.  Arizona gets an up-and-coming middle-of-the rotation starter, plus a guy who might also be another middle-of-the rotation starter but it costs them a young lefty and one of their more exciting, young big league arms.  And Detroit gets leaner, gets another young fireballer, two good lefty relievers, and a guy who...in a few years...could make them forget about the only guy they gave up.  At this moment, I agree with Keith Law.

See that.  Made it the entire post without mentioning Roy Halladay.

Placido's A Phillie

In the first moderately interesting, multi-year signing of the off-season, the Pedro Feliz Era came to an abrupt end Thursday when the Philadelphia Phillies inked Placido Polanco to a 3-year, $18 milion dollar deal.

Polanco didn't set the world on fire offensively last year (10 homeruns, 31 doubles, .331 OBP, 7 steals) but he's a high-contact guy, averaging 43 wiffs per 162 games played over his 9 year career, an excellent defender (2 errors at second base all of last year...and an average of 7.5 boots per 162 games played at third) and a career .303 hitter.  And let's face it...surrounded by Rollins, Utley, Victorino, Howard, Werth, and Ibanez, he doesn't need to hit .340 to be useful.

In other news, the Atlanta Braves continue to set their sights on 103 victories by a final score of 2-1 in 2010 by signing another set-up/closer type...Takashi Saito.  This, just after hours after agreeing to terms with Billy Wagner. 

If "Number Of Partially Nude Photos Stolen From A Girlfriend's Email" Was A Fantasy Baseball Category...

...Grady Sizemore would be next year's #1 overall pick.  This is definitely a shame for him, but it also gets back to the oft-repeated, seldom-heeded addage of the digital age- don't take pictures or videotape something you wouldn't want your grandmother to watch.

Most Valuable Yankee Of 2009?

Teixeira?  Jeter?  A-Rod?  Sabathia?  Let's find out.

As Matt pointed out in a previous post, the Yankees opened the season 13-15 without Alex Rodriguez.  Once he returned to action, they went 90-44.  So was he the engine that powered their lineup?  Does that make him their regular season MVP?

Well, on the last day of June (roughly two months into A-Rod's return), the Yankees had just won their 6th game in a row, had improved their mark to 44-32 overall and had won 31 of their 48 games since getting A-Rod back (a .646 winning percentage).  At the time, the game's highest paid player was hitting .233 with 12 homeruns and 39 RBI in 159 at bats.  True, his on-base percentage was very good (.399) but in the month of June, he slugged a very pedestrian .415.  During those same two months, Derek Jeter's on base percentage was virtually identical but he hit 80 points higher with just 2 fewer extra base hits, plus 13 steals.  Meanwhile, Mark Teixeira's May and June numbers look like this: .300 average, 17 homeruns, 19 doubles, 50 RBI, .391 OBP in 210 ABs.  And let's not forget about C.C. Sabathia's 6-2 record and BAA of just over .200 during that time period, either.  Perhaps the return of #13 helped settle everybody down.

That gets us close to the All-Star break.  But let's not forget- the Yankees were still trailing the Red Sox by 3 games headed into homerun derby.  They officially took the lead in the AL East July 21 and at the end of the month, they only had a game and a half advantage. It wasn't until August that they really pulled away.  So who were the best Yankees then?

Well, A-Rod did hit .315 with 8 XBH, 12 RBI and 18 walks in August- a very good month.  But Derek Jeter hit .377 with 12 XBH, 17 RBI and a higher OPS than Alex.  Mark Teixeira was also very good...26 RBI, 32 runs scored (both best of the 3) and an OPS of .914.  Oh, by the way, C.C. Sabathia went 5-0 in his 6 starts with a 2.64 ERA and a WHIP below 1.00.

Entering September, the Yanks just about had it locked up.  They had a 6.5 game lead with 32 remaining.  A-Rod had another good month (.337/5/23 with a .958 OPS) but so did Jeter (.450 OBP, 7 steals), so did Tex (.343/7/20 with a 1.081 OPS), and so did C.C. (4-0, 1.29 ERA, WHIP below 1.00).

And just for fun- against the Red Sox this season, Teixeira's OPS was 104 points higher than A-Rod's (1.123 vs. 1.027), plus Sabathia went 3-1 with a 2.22 ERA and .172 BAA.

So while it's most definitely accurate to say the Yankees clicked once they got A-Rod back, I'm not sure if that makes him the team's 2009 MVP, given what the guys around him did, too.  My vote goes to Teixeira.

By "Miggy" Did He Mean "Mauer?"

Joe Mauer is the American League's 2009 MVP.  No argument, or real surprise there.  Dude was Senior Consistency this year, hitting basically .350 or better in every splits situation they measure and probably a few they don't (day game on a Wednesday, runner named Mike on first?).  Plus no player was on base more often, or slugged higher than he did and he plays the most demanding position on the field.

No, the real surprise during today's MVP voting was the fact that Miguel Cabrera received more first-place votes (1) than Derek Jeter and Mark Teixeira combined.

I'm not saying Miggy didn't have a great year because he did, but let's break it down.  His batting average and on base percentage wasn't as good as Mauer's or Jeter's.  He didn't hit as many dingers, drive in as many, or slug as high as Teixiera, plus only 4 AL first baseman had more errors than his 7 (I know defense doesn't matter a ton in MVP voting, but my point is Tex had the better all-around season). 

And perhaps this is going through his numbers with too fine-toothed of a comb but...over the Tigers last 9 games of the season (where they blew a 2 game lead in the AL Central and ended up missing the postseason) he hit just .205 with 3 RBI.  These were critical games against the White Sox and Twins and his team went 3-6 in that stretch.  If you recall, right smack dab in the middle of all this was the domestic incident with his wife where, according to police, he was more than three times over the legal limit, "very uncooperative and highly intoxicated."  Nobody was charged with a crime and I wouldn't say this rough patch alone would automatically disqualify him from the award. I'm just saying Mauer, Jeter, and Tex kept their noses clean when it mattered most.

Apparently the one guy who gave Miggy a first place vote is a writer from Japan.  Curious, to say the least. 

It's also worth pointing out that this is the second time in a week that a Detroit Tiger has inexplicably received a first-place vote for a major postseason award despite the presence of several more qualified candidates.  Justin Verlander had a great season just like Miguel Cabrera did.  But just like Miggy wasn't better than Mauer, Jeter, or Tex, Verlander wasn't better than Greinke or King Felix.

Lincecum And My Concerns

First off, congrats to 25-year-old Tim Lincecum on winning his second Cy Young award in as many years yesterday.  It's tough to win one and even tougher to repeat.  The American League has only had 4 repeat winners (Pedro, Clemens two different times, Palmer, and McLain) and not counting Lincecum, it's only happened to 3 other NL pitchers (The Big Unit and Maddux 4 years in a row, and Sandy Koufax).

That said, here's what worries me about Lincecum.

He is 5'11, 170 pounds.  In the past two seasons, he has thrown more than 450 innings and because he's a big-time strikeout pitcher, he has averaged nearly 16 pitches per inning over the course of his short career.  Plus, unlike what was the case with Maddux or Clemens, there aren't too many Little League coaches out there who are teaching their kids to throw just like Timmy.

I looked it up and over the past two seasons in Major League baseball, only 5 starting pitchers have thrown at least 3,400 pitches in each season- Justin Verlander (7,459), C.C. Sabathia (7,400), Lincecum (7,121), A.J. Burnett (7,109), and Bronson Arroyo (6,840).  Out of the group, Timmy is the only guy who's not at least 6'4'' and the next skinniest guy on the list (Arroyo) outweighs him by 25 pounds (and Sabathia has him by a full person- 120 pounds).

Knock on wood, Lincecum has been a picture of health his first 3 seasons in the big leagues.  I just wonder how much longer his spindly build will continue to produce such eye-popping seasons and eye-popping pitch counts without any backlash.

I'm Back!

After a nearly one-year hiatus, I've decided to re-take-up (soooo not an actual English phrase) blogging. Sorry for the lack of posts in the last calendar year. I was...busy?
 
Okay...let's talk awards.  No beef so far with either of the Rookies of the Year (Coghlan and Bailey) or AL Cy Young winner, Zack Greinke.  It's a lock Albert Pujols wins NL MVP, so the only real drama seems to be NL Cy Young and AL MVP.


NL Cy Young 
In the senior circuit, it's essentially a race between Tim Lincecum, and whichever Cardinals starter you like better- Chris Carpenter or Adam Wainwright.  That said, here's a look at their numbers from this season in a way you probably haven't looked at them yet.  Based on the numbers they compiled throughout the course of the year, here is the average pitching line for each of our contenders in the 2009 season.



Lincecum- 7.04 IP, 5.25 H, 2.13 BB, 1.94 ER, 8.16 K's, 107.5 pitches

Carpenter- 6.88 IP, 5.57 H, 1.36 BB, 1.71 ER, 5.14 K's, 95.4 pitches

Wainwright- 6.85 IP, 6.35 H, 1.94 BB, 2.00 ER, 6.24 K's, 106.3 pitches



Looking at it this way, trendy stats like quality start percentage, WHIP, and batting average or OPS against take care of themselves.  


So what do we take away from these three average pitching lines?  Whose would you rather have?  Well, first-off we see Lincecum recorded an average of half an out more per start than his next closest competitor.  I like that a lot.  We also see that in terms of baserunners allowed per start (7.38 for Lincecum, 6.93 for Carpenter, 8.29 for Wainwright) Wainwright was the least impressive.  He didn't pitch as deep into games as the other two, took more pitches to get there than Carpenter and almost as many as Lincecum, plus he allowed the most runners by far.  To top it all off, Lincecum has the clear edge in strikeouts, which in some respects makes his higher walk rate less relevant.  And when you factor in Carpenter's 28 starts compared to 32 and 34 for Lincecum and Wainwright respectivley, it's a cakewalk as far as I'm concerned.  Lincecum was clearly the best of all NL pitchers in '09 with Carpenter second and Wainwright third.  The actual winner is announced today at 2PM.



AL MVP
Much tougher to quantify in my opinion because the main contenders- Derek Jeter, Joe Mauer, and Mark Teixeira are different kinds of players.  Jeter is your prototypical leadoff hitter who handles the bat well, sees lots of pitches, gets on base, runs and gives his team a 1-0 lead.  Mauer is a classic number two or three hitter- high average, lots of balls in play, good line drive stroke and tough to strike out.  And Tex is about as good of a middle-of-the-order, thumper type as you could ask for- a threat to go yard every time up with tons of RBI.  And all three won Gold Gloves this year (although some pundits have questioned whether any of them deserved it).


As a starting point, here are their basic numbers from 2009:


Jeter- .334 AVG, 18 HR, 66 RBI, 107 R, 30 SB, .871 OPS
Mauer- .365 AVG, 28 HR, 96 RBI, 94 R, 4 SB, 1.031 OPS
Teixeira- .292 AVG, 39 HR, 122 RBI, 103 R, 2 SB, .948 OPS


All very impressive.  


Digging deeper (because I am a firm believer that an MVP candidate finishes the season strong and has to get a lot of big hits throughout the course of the season) here are some other things to consider.  Jeter hit .351 after the break and had a .450 OBP in September, but hit just .259 in his 135 at-bats with men in scoring position.  Tex hit .313 after the break including a .343, 7 HR month of September.  He also hit .355 with 31 RBI in 62 at-bats with runners in scoring position and 2 outs.  And while he hit just .264 overall with men in scoring position, he also had an on-base percentage of more than .400 in that scenario.  So in those 174 at-bats, he had 46 hits and 39 walks- selective in that good Yankee lineup. 


Here's where Joe Mauer is no ordinary Joe, though.  He hit .358 in the second half, and had an OPS of at least .997 in each of the following situations: leading off an inning, nobody on, at least one baserunner on, runner(s) in scoring position, runner(s) in scoring position and 2 out, and the bases loaded.  To top it all off, in 113 at-bats in September and October while his team was in a dogfight to get into the postseason, he hit .354 with twice as many walks (24) as strikeouts (12).  And he did this while playing the most physically demanding position on the diamond.


It's because of that fact that I give the nod to Mauer for MVP with Tex second and Jeter a close third.  AL MVP will be announced Monday.