An Impact Move For The Mets? No Bay!

Jason Bay and the Mets have agreed on a 4-year, $66 million dollar deal according to WFAN. 

While I'm sure New York fans are pleased, this move does not make them the favorites (a) to win the NL East, (b) the NL Wild Card, or (c) even finish above .500. 

Let's not forget- this is a team that lost 90 games a year ago.  Out of the 16 NL teams, their pitching staff finished 12th in ERA, 11th in quality starts and batting average against, second-to-last in walks allowed, and third-to-last in baserunners per inning.  And so far all they've done to address these deficiencies in a pitching-rich division is sign Kelvin Escobar and lose J.J. Putz to free agency.

True, Bay has played in at least 145 games for each of the last 5 seasons and for his career, he averages 33 homeruns, 107 RBI, 12 steals, and a .387 OBP per 162 games played.  But let's not forget Bay is switching from the 8th most offense-friendly park in baseball (Fenway) to the 9th worst (Citi Field) so to book him for another .275/30+/100+ season would be presumptious.  Just look what Citi Field did to David Wright last year.

The biggest factor in New York's success (or lack thereof) in 2010 is less likely to be Bay's production, but rather the production and health of Jose Reyes.  If he's on base and running in front of the likes of Beltran, Wright, and Bay- the Mets might be able to out-slug their opponents 82 times.  But if he's not- they might not.

Bottom line...Bay is a good player but he's not a franchise-saver.  And worst of all for the Mets, he can't pitch.

Arms Race

If today was Sunday, April 4th and not Thursday, December 24th, we would be just hours away from the start of the 2010 baseball season with the defending champion Yankees visiting Fenway Park on ESPN's Sunday Night Baseball.  Unfortunately, we have to wait 101 days for that to happen.  But with New York and Boston adding big-name starters to already talented pitching staffs this month, it's not too early to start the debate: whose is better right now?

First- where things stand.  If the season started today, Boston's rotation would likely look something close to this:

Josh Beckett
Jon Lester
John Lackey
Daisuke Matsuzaka
Clay Buchholz/Tim Wakefield/Boof Bonser

While New York's will probably take the form of something resembling this:

C.C. Sabathia
A.J. Burnett
Javier Vazquez
Andy Pettitte
Joba Chamberlain/Phil Hughes/Chad Gaudin

My first impression is how similar these rotations are.  Both boast big-name, World-Series-champion names at the top of the rotation...high-ceiling-when-healthy-veterans in the middle...and full-of-promise young guns at the back end.  So at first glance, there's no glaring front-runner.

Breaking it down slot-for-slot though is a different story.  When comparing number one starters, the edge has to go to Sabathia.  C.C. was everything he was supposed to be last season (19 game winner, low ERA, ton of innings) whereas Beckett was inconsistent (11-3, 3.35 before the break...6-3, 4.53 after...awful in April, brilliant through July, bad in August, good in September).  Both are capable of being Cy Young contenders in 2010 but right now, the edge goes to Charles Carsten and New York.

At number two, Jon Lester was the anti-Beckett for the Sox last year, having a rough first two months but then settling down nicely and pitching more like a number one the rest of the way (including his one and only postseason start).  He also led the team in strikeouts.  Burnett didn't have as many K's as Lester (which is surprising, considering that's one of his specialties) and also had a higher ERA and WHIP, plus he was much more hit-or-miss in '09 (postseason included).  So at number two, the edge goes to the Sox.  And for Yankee fans who argue Lester is the number one ahead of Beckett, but still not as good as Sabathia, you're right.  But Beckett is still better than Burnett.  So either way, the teams are 1-1 after their first two starters.

I'm going to do third and fourth starters as a group because there really is no clear cut number three or number four just yet on either team.  For the Sox, it probably will be Lackey at three given his immense contract but I wouldn't be shocked to see Dice-K outpitch him and gain the spot.  For the Yanks- same thing.  Vazquez is the new guy and has better stuff, but Pettitte has the better track record in New York.

As for whose combo is better, this really is open to some interpretation but I'm going to lean Boston and here's why.  Over the last five years the 31-year-old Lackey really hasn't had a "bad" season.  He hasn't had more than one "excellent" season, but he's always been good.  His ERA has always been sub 3.90, he's always been a decent strikeout guy and he's been a bulldog in the postseason.  Is he worth what he got?  No.  Is he a lock to make 32 starts?  No.  But will he work nicely here?  I think so.  And it's the same thing for Dice-K.  He's not the future Hall of Famer the Sox paid for, but as a number three/four he's also pretty serviceable.  It will also be very interesting to see what kind of year he puts together in 2010 if he's completely healthy.  His '07 was a learning year, his '08 was lucky, and his '09 was a wash due to arm trouble.  But, he's only 29 and we assume he'll enter '10 at 100 percent.  Even Yankee fans wouldn't be shocked if he wins 15 games, has a 3.50 ERA and a bunch of strikeouts, which would basically be the average of his '07 and '08 seasons.

The Yankees just can't be 100% sure what they're going to get from Vazquez and Pettitte.  Javy was terrible (granted, pitching through pain) in his previous stop in New York and shifts from a very pitcher friendly park to a very hitter friendly one.  It's also worth noting that in three seasons in the AL in the last five years, his ERA was 4.84, 3.74, and 4.67.  For his career, he is just 3 games over .500 and has allowed nearly a hit an inning.  Plus he turns 34 halfway through next season.  That's not to say he can't follow up his stellar '09 with a comparable 2010, but I would be absolutely floored if his ERA was under 4 this season, let alone under 3.  With Pettitte, it's not an issue of what to expect.  He's spent 12 of his 15 excellent big league seasons as a Yankee.  With the exception of his rookie season and an injury-shortened '02, he's never won fewer than 14 games and his career ERA is just a shade under 4.  The problem is, he turns 38 in June.  To his credit, he had a great second half of '09.  But he was bad (4.59 ERA) at home, not great in September, and unreliable in the postseason.  Maybe he has another Pettitte-like 14-10, 4.15 ERA season in 2010, but he's getting to the age where stuff starts to fade.  The biggest thing New York has in its corner is health.  Javy and Pettitte have been incredibly healthy lately whereas Lackey and Dice-K both struggled with injuries as recently as last season.  But given the age advantage of the Sox starters, plus their potential ceilings when healthy, it's the Boston by a nose.

At number five, I say it's a push because we just don't know what to expect from these guys, nor do we know from which exact guys to expect it.  In 16 starts last year Buchholz, the Sox presumptive number five, was 7-4 with a 4.21 ERA and a K:BB of less than 2:1.  He got tagged for 6 earned or more 4 times but at the same time, he had a 10-start-stretch where he made 9 quality starts.  He's only 25 and already has a no-hitter on his resume so we know he can pitch.  We just don't know if he's ready to make 25+ starts yet.

In New York, 24-year-old Joba Chamberlain had a 2009 that has to be considered disappointing.  In 31 starts, he logged just 156 1/3 innings, an average of just 5 innings per appearance.  He finished a pedestrian 9-6 with a 4.75 ERA, a K:BB of less than 2:1, allowed 21 homeruns, and more than 3 baserunners every 2 innings.  What's absolutely staggering though is a quick glance at his splits when he's a starter versus when he's a reliever.  Over his short career (slightly less than 300 innings) he has a 1.50 ERA, .182 BAA, and K:BB of nearly 4:1 in 50 relief appearances.  But over his 43 starts, his ERA balloons to 4.18, BAA rises to .266, and K:BB dips to 2:1.  So whether we'll see him at the beginning of games or at the end remains to be seen, but there's no denying the talent is there.  Another contender, 23-year-old Phil Hughes has a shot at the rotation too, but like Joba, seems much better suited coming out of the pen.  Last year his ERA was 5.45 in 7 starts, compared to just 1.40 in 44 relief appearances (the first time he'd relieved).  In fact, in 28 career starts over three seasons, his ERA is 5.22 and he's a game under .500.  So while it's understandbale that the Yanks would rather see one of these guys make it as a starter, their performances tell much different stories.  New York might have to settle for having a dynamite set-up man and closer for the next 10 years.

Are these teams done building their 2010 rotations?  Hard to say.  I don't see the front-ends changing much, but depending on injuries, player development, and needs at the back end...anything is possible.  For now, I give the edge to Boston.  We'll see what happens in 101 days.

Is That The Best Atlanta Could Do?

Javy Vazquez is headed back to New York and all the defending champs had to give up to get him was Melky Cabrera (plus throw-in reliever Mike Dunn and a player to be named). 

Melky Cabrera...for a guy who was second in the NL in strikeouts last year and got votes for Cy Young.

Now, if the Braves were giving up the 2004 version of Vazquez (his one and only year as a Yankee) when he had a 4.91 ERA and just 150 strikeouts in 198 innings, I'd say this deal wouldn't be quite so lopsided.  But the 2009 version of Javy finished top-5 in wins, K's, WHIP, CGs, IP, and was 6th in ERA- in other words- he's coming off a career year.

Cabrera is, at best, a useful defensive player.  But he is also an average-to-below average offensive player and headed to a team in desperate need of sluggers.  True, he's just 25.  But he's gotten 400+ at-bats each of the last 4 seasons (and played in 150+ games twice).  During that span, he's never reached 15 homeruns, never stolen 15 bases, never scored 80 runs (in the Yankee lineup, mind you), never hit 30 doubles, never batted above .280, never driven-in 75, never topped 60 walks, and never slugged .420.  He is not currently, nor do imagine him ever becoming, an impact bat.

I know the Braves were looking to move a starter.  Even without Vazquez, they still have Tommy Hanson, Derek Lowe, Tim Hudson, Jair Jurrjens, and Kenshin Kawakami to go along with new relievers Billy Wagner and Takashi Saito...so their staff is still the deepest in the division (if not the league) 1 through 5.  But their lineup is also one of the thinnest.  It features Brian McCann, Chipper, Nate McLouth and a lot of unproven/unexciting guys everywhere else.  By moving Javy they had a chance to remedy that.  But in my opinion, they just blew it.

NOW it's getting interesting!

Two (apparent) huge developments today involving some of the biggest arms in the game.  John Lackey is reportedly headed to the Red Sox for slightly more than $82.5 million over 5 years.  And perhaps in an even bigger deal, Roy Halladay is reportedly headed to Philadelphia in a 3-team deal that would send Cliff Lee to Seattle and prospects north of the border.

My knee-jerk reaction is as follows.  That's a lot of money and years for Boston to give to a 31-year-old pitcher who won 11 games and had an ERA north of 3.80 last season, and in gaining Halladay but losing Lee, the Phillies haven't really gained a whole lot of ground in their rotation.  Lee wot 7 times in 12 starts with the Phillies and had a 3.39 ERA and was even better in the postseason...4-0 with just 33 baserunners allowed in 5 starts.

Bad news for the LA Angels on a couple of fronts.  They didn't get either starter and they've now lost two players they liked (Chone Figgins and Cliff Lee) to in-division rival Seattle. 

Former A's On The Move

2004 AL ROY Bobby Crosby inked a one-year-deal to play in baseball purgatory (Pittsburgh) next season.  As an Oakland fan, I wish him well and wish him good health most of all.  But at this point, he's probably fortunate to get a guaranteed big league contract above the minimum pay rate.  Including 2004 he has played in 100+ games just twice.  Since that year, he has yet to hit double digit homeruns again and his career OBP is .305 in more than 2,600 plate appearances.  More than once this decade, I've said during an offseason, "if Bobby Crosby can just get 600 AB's this year..."  Now, I wonder if the numbers would even be worth the wait.  Despite all that, I'd love to see him hit .270 with 25 bombs for the Pirates in 2010.

Another oft-injured A, Rich Harden, appears headed to one of the busiest teams this winter- Texas.  He would effectively replace Kevin Millwood in the rotation and if healthy (which is kind of like saying if Democrats and Republicans would just agree on a direction for health care reform...) he could anchor the staff on a dangerous Ranger club which will also feature, apparently, former Bostonian Mike Lowell playing somewhere in the infield.  Harden is the ultimate talent tease- so good when he's in service, but rarely in service for an extended period of time.  The 28-year-old has averaged 9.4 strikeouts per 9 innings pitched for his career.  He also has a 3.39 ERA and .220 BAA over 750+ innings pitched.  For a frame of reference, these numbers are better than Johan Santana's career stats (granted, smaller sample size).  Had Harden racked up these totals over, say, four seasons, we'd be talking about a potential future Hall of Famer.  Problem is, it's taken Richie Rich parts of seven seasons to do it.  So the Rangers will hold their breath, roll the dice, and get the ice machine ready for #40.

I'll keep this short...

If someone can give me ONE compelling reason why Millwood-to-the-O's makes sense for Baltimore, I will mail you a $20 dollar bill.

Here are the facts...

-Mill turns 35 in a coupla weeks (check minus)
-The gave up a soon-to-be 28-year-old former closer and player to be named later to get him (check-minus)
-Last time I checked, Boston and New York still look good on paper the next few years (check minus)
-Last time I checked, the O's were "committed" to a youth movement

Ball's in your court, blogosphere...and "he's their 2010 Opening Day starter" doesn't cut it as a viable excuse.

Grander(son) Slam For The Yanks?

Finally!  FINALLY!  The Yankees have found a way to land a big name during the offseason.

Poor Bronx Bomber fans have had to suffer an excruciating month-plus since winning the World Series, and almost an entire year since their last big-name offseason "get."  But now, their wait is over.  Their patience, rewarded.  Curtis Granderson, appears to be headed to New York...concrete jungle where dreams are made of...there's nothing you can't do..now you're in New York (and so on, and so forth).

Breaking down the 3-team deal, it's unclear who the true winner is because there's so much young talent involved, but here's what we know.  New York gets Granderson, a guy who can play center field but a guy who, offensively, has been somewhat enigmatic during the course of his career.  Is he the guy who had a putrid-for-a-top-of-the-order-type .321 OBP last year with 30 bombs and 141 wiffs or is he the guy who seemed destined for superstardom just two years ago when he hit .302 with 122 runs, and 84 XBH?  I dunno.  But what I do know is that his OPS and his runs totals have both dipped for 3 straight seasons and for his career, he averages a strikeout every 4.2 at-bats.

Tim Kurkjian had a good point on SportsCenter just now, though.  He said in the Yankee lineup, all Granderson has to be is good, not great- a defensive upgrade over Johnny Damon (check) and a guy who won't let the bright lights and big city atmosphere become a distraction (based on his character to date, we can mark this as a check, too).  For the record, Damon went .282/24/82 with 12 steals last year.  There's no reason to think Granderson won't at least match that, plus he's 8 years younger, so we can only presume he will be an upgrade.

The other players (and teams) involved in this deal are fascinating too.  The Diamondbacks will add Detroit's Edwin Jackson and New York's Ian Kennedy to a rotation that already features Dan Haren and Brandon Webb.  After years of hype and promise, Jackson finally put it together last year.  He won 13 games, topped 200 IP for the first time in his career, and notched 161 strikeouts with a respectable 1.26 WHIP.  He's only 26 years old, but his ERA did rise in every single month of the '09 season.

Kennedy is about to turn 25 and hasn't logged 60 career big league innings, but has been a guy on New York's radar for the last few seasons, despite battling injuries on and off in 2009.  He's no lock to make the rotation out of camp, but if given the opportunity, could turn in a Jackson-in-'09 type year in 2010.

Detroit, according to ESPN's Keith Law, is the early front-runner for "team that made out the best" in this transaction.  They dump Granderson's salary.  They get the mega-hyped 25-year-old flamethrower Max Scherzer from Arizona, along with 23-year-old reliever Daniel Schlereth.  On top of that, they get workhorse reliever Phil Coke from the Yanks and one of their top prospects, outfielder Austin Jackson.

Scherzer has electric stuff, a violent motion, and 240 career strikeouts in 226 1/3 career innings at the major league level so his ceiling could be quite high and in Detroit, he will compliment Justin Verlander quite nicely.  Schlereth is a lefty, was the 26th player taken in the '08 draft, and also averaged more than a punch an inning in limited action last year (18 1/3 innings).  Coke, another lefty, made 72 appearances for the champs last year, notched 21 holds and finished with a WHIP just a touch over 1.00 but did allow 10 homeruns in 60 innings.  And Jackson hit .300 at Triple-A last year with more than 20 steals and 65 RBI.  In other words, he could be a less powerful, more disciplined version of Granderson, and soon.

Bottom line...the Yankees upgrade defensively, perhaps a little bit offensively, and definitely get younger but it costs them an aging-prospect-starter, a reliable lefty set-up man and one of their top offensive prospects who might end up being close to as good as they guy they got.  Arizona gets an up-and-coming middle-of-the rotation starter, plus a guy who might also be another middle-of-the rotation starter but it costs them a young lefty and one of their more exciting, young big league arms.  And Detroit gets leaner, gets another young fireballer, two good lefty relievers, and a guy who...in a few years...could make them forget about the only guy they gave up.  At this moment, I agree with Keith Law.

See that.  Made it the entire post without mentioning Roy Halladay.

Placido's A Phillie

In the first moderately interesting, multi-year signing of the off-season, the Pedro Feliz Era came to an abrupt end Thursday when the Philadelphia Phillies inked Placido Polanco to a 3-year, $18 milion dollar deal.

Polanco didn't set the world on fire offensively last year (10 homeruns, 31 doubles, .331 OBP, 7 steals) but he's a high-contact guy, averaging 43 wiffs per 162 games played over his 9 year career, an excellent defender (2 errors at second base all of last year...and an average of 7.5 boots per 162 games played at third) and a career .303 hitter.  And let's face it...surrounded by Rollins, Utley, Victorino, Howard, Werth, and Ibanez, he doesn't need to hit .340 to be useful.

In other news, the Atlanta Braves continue to set their sights on 103 victories by a final score of 2-1 in 2010 by signing another set-up/closer type...Takashi Saito.  This, just after hours after agreeing to terms with Billy Wagner.