Cabrera Treated, So What's Next?

By now, you've probably heard that Miguel Cabrera (a) spent three months getting treatment for alcoholism this offseason, (b) plans to continue with his program in spring training and during the regular season and (c) says he hasn't had a drop of booze since a drunken scuffle with his wife right at the end of the season and right at the beginning of the Tigers' collapse last year.

First off- let me say it's admirable that he's recognized his problem, sought help for it, plans to stick with his treatment, and is brave enough to speak publicly about it.  As an avid fantasy baseball player though, I wonder what impact this will have on his 2010 numbers.

For his six and a half year career, his average 162 game season looks like this: .311/33/117 with a .925 OPS.  Those, my friends, put him on pace for first-ballot induction into the Hall of Fame, especially considering he doesn't turn 27 until mid-April.  So he could easily string together another 8 or 9 seasons of at least that caliber before he hits his twilight years and that's with 1200+ hits, 200+ homeruns, and 750+ RBI already in the bag.

The one thing Cabrera has yet to do though, is put together a monster season.  As good as he's been, he's never hit 40 homeruns, never driven in 130, never hit .340, never walked 100 times, and never finished with an OPS above 1.000 (although he's come awfully close).  But just because he intends on being clean for all of 2010, I don't think we can assume this will be the year he does any, or all of those things.

First off, for all his apparent in-season drinking in the past, his health and playing time have never suffered.  Since being called up, he has yet to play in fewer than 157 games and has always amassed at least 650 plate appearances.  The drinking doesn't appear to have had an impact on his power, either.  In each of his six full seasons, he has smacked 65, 78, 78, 74, 75, and 68 extra base hits and never slugged under .510.

Although I don't know him personally, my guess is that Cabrera is one of those immensely-gifted athletes who, unfair as it seems to the rest of us mortals, doesn't necessarily need to take care of himself to be excellent at his sport.  Back when I played (p.s. I've done more than 300 posts to this blog and I believe this is the first time I've used that phrase) I wasn't that fortunate, so I didn't even try.  And I'm not implying that Cabrera's decision will have no impact on his body or his life, because it will.  I just think that people who are expecting to see Cabrera post career bests across the board because he's clean might end up disappointed.  My guess is, this life change is for his long-term good, not short-term.  Either way, good for him!