A Headscratcher

Not to sound like Mel Kiper Junior, Draft Expert, or anything like that, but this trade kind of makes me realize why the Tampa Bay Rays (minus the Devil) have a high pick every year.

They just swapped Delmon Young, Brendan Harris, and minor leaguer Jason Pridie for Minnesota's Matt Garza, Jason Bartlett, and minor leaguer Eduardo Morlan.

Young, who just turned 22, was considered a major Rookie of the Year contender entering 2007 and had a solid, albeit unspectacular year for Tampa, going .288/13/93 with 10 steals and 38 doubles. Garza, another promising youngster who just turned 24, went 5-7 with a 3.69 ERA from July on. Of his 16 starts, just 6 were quality starts, mostly because he didn't often pitch 6 innings.

Not that I'm a Rays' fan or anything like that, but it seems to me they got taken. Young was the first overall pick of the '03 draft and I don't think there's any question his ceiling is significantly higher than Garza's, not to mention he's 2 years younger. I know Tampa wants to straighten out its pitching staff and Garza will be a nice compliment to Scott Kazmir, but they gave up too much here.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Young be a younger, more potent, less-inclined-to-be-a-regular-on-web-gems version of Torii Hunter, and soon. As for Garza, who knows what his ceiling will be? Is he a perennial 17 game winner? I think the odds of that are a lot lower than the odds of Young making Minnesota fans forget about Hunter in 2008.

Joe Kennedy Dies Suddenly

It's always sad, and to me, scary when something like this happens. He just collapsed in the middle of the night.

I'll be very interested to see what the medical examiner says about a cause of death and you certainly have to feel for his family.

You also can't help but think about Darryl Kile whenever you read something like this.

Rollins Vs. Holliday

I know the award was given out a few days ago, but I'm inclined to think the BBWAA got it wrong when Jimmy Rollins edged out Matt Holliday for the 2007 NL MVP. Here's why...

First of all, both players were clearly the MVPs of their own teams, both of which came back from the dead in September to make an improbable playoff appearance, so that's a push. It's not like one guy's team made the postseason and the other's didn't.

With that said, here are there basic numbers from 2007. Holliday hit .340 with a .405 OBP, 36 homeruns, 137 RBI, 11 steals, and 120 runs scored. Rollins hit .296 with a .344 OBP, 30 homeruns, 94 RBI, 41 steals, and 139 runs. Just looking at that, I don't think there's any question Holliday's overall offensive numbers were better. He also outslugged Rollins by more than 70 points, had more walks, and a few more extra base hits.

I know a lot has been made of Rollins' defense and that's certainly a factor to consider in all of this. J-Roll won his first Gold Glove in 2007 after committing just 11 errors at shortstop and turning 110 double plays. Here's the problem. Two other NL shortstops finished with higher fielding percentages (Tulowitzki and Vizquel) and two other NL shortstops (Tulowitzki and Wilson) turned more double plays. Rollins finished 6th in the league in "range factor" which is putouts plus assists divided by innings, and he finished 6th in the league in "zone rating" which is some STATS, Inc. measure of the batted balls a player reaches. In other words, Rollins won the award after having an excellent, but not necessarily a "clearly-best-at-his-position" kind of year. And you know what? Matt Holliday did too, albeit at a much easier position. His 3 errors were second among NL left fielders, his 7 outfield assists were seventh, he had the second best fielding percentage, the 5th best range factor, and the best zone rating. He also had 20 more total chances than any other NL left fielder. But he didn't win the Gold Glove because the voters chose 3 center fielders (Beltran, Rowand, Jones) and a right fielder (Francoeur). So perhaps the defensive gap between Rollins and Holliday has been overstated. You still have to give the edge to Rollins, but it's not a complete cakewalk.

Now let's look at a few splits. To me, these numbers are more telling than any others when it comes to a player's true "value" to his team. These are the numbers that show whether a player came up big when it counted (late in games, late in the season, with men on base, with 2 outs), or whether he just padded his stats once the game was already decided. Holliday hit .330 in August, .367 in September, and .407 the last week of the season. Rollins hit .296, .298, and .375. In terms of OBP over that time period, Holliday went .403, .448, .515...Rollins went .371, .333, and .400. With men on base, Holliday hit .332 with 119 RBI. Rollins hit .314 with 74 RBI. With men on and 2 out, Holliday hit .337 with a 1.026 OPS. Rollins hit .261 with an .842. With runners in scoring position, Holliday hit .333 with 94 RBI and a .947 OPS. Rollins was .272, 64, .877. "Close and late," which is defined as 7th inning or later and either up a run, tied, or with the tying run on deck, Holliday hit .295 with a .935 OPS, Rollins hit .255 with an .808 OPS. And while half of Holliday's homeruns were solo shots, two-thirds of Rollins' round-trippers were.

I could go on, but I think you get the picture. Matt Holliday was the most valuable player in the National League in 2007, but for some reason, Jimmy Rollins was voted the Most Valuable Player.

Little Sarge No Longer In Charge Of The Outfield

It appears Gary Matthews Jr.'s days are over as LA's center fielder now that the Angels have signed Torii Hunter. Hunter has won 7 Gold Gloves in a row and the Angels openly admit Vladimir Guerrero will be their right fielder (duh) while Garrett Anderson will start in left. In addition to Matthews they also have Juan Rivera back from a broken leg, who hit .279 in 43 AB's at the end of '07 after a .310/23/85 performance the year before...and Reggie Willits who stole 27 bases and had a .391 OBP last season, even though his second half was poor.

LA says Matthews will spell Vlad and Garrett and see some time at DH in '08, which doesn't seem to justify the 5-year, $50 million dollar deal they signed him to last year, although they're paying Hunter almost twice that ($90M over 5). Matthews came back to Earth last year going .252/18/72 with 18 steals after a .313/19/79 year with 10 steals in 2006.

Clearly, LA has to trade somebody out of this group of 6 and you can bet it won't be Vlad or Hunter. They're better off keeping Anderson considering what they'd be able to get for an aging, injury-prone corner outfielder and they'll have an equally difficult time getting a team to take on Matthews' absurdly large deal especially because he turns 34 next August (I had no idea until I looked it up). That makes the most likely trade candidates Willits or Rivera (or both).

LA's already made one trade this offseason, so don't be surprised to see another, soon.

What A Snoozer!

So much for this being a mix-'em-up, re-establish-the-balance-of-power kind of offseason. So far we've seen Curt Schilling and Mike Lowell re-sign with the Red Sox, while the Yankees have kept Jorge Posada, Mariano Rivera and A-Rod (who was robbed of a unanimous MVP selection by two writers from Detroit, according to Rob Neyer). Those guys were on a short list of the most sought-after players and they're not going anywhere. Neither is Mets second baseman Luis Castillo (not that anyone cares all that much).

Barry Bonds has a better chance of playing for the same California Penal League team Charlie Sheen pitched for in "Major League" than he does of finding a suitor in the AL or NL. And Tom Glavine is going back to the Braves for one year and $8 million dollars. Who said pitching was going to be hard to come by this year?

The biggest "bombshells" so far have been Edgar Renteria to the Tigers and the Orlando Cabrera/Jon Garland deal. And unless a big name gets traded between now and spring training (Miguel Tejada?, Miguel Cabrera?, Johan Santana?) the most we have to look forward to is where Torii Hunter and Andruw Jones end up and for how much.

Thanks a lot guys. What happened to greed and testing the market?

INDICTED!

On a day when it looks like A-Rod is returning to the Yankees and Jake Peavy unanimously won the Cy Young, Barry Bonds managed to steal the spotlight. After reading the indictment against him, I have a few thoughts and a few questions. But first, here's a basic summary of what the indictment says. And here's a terrific summary of this entire 9-year nightmare.

Count One: Perjury, 5-Year Maximum Sentence
As a result of the federal government's steroids and money-laundering investigation into BALCO, evidence was seized, including drug tests failed by Bonds. So, he was required to testify before a grand jury on December 4, 2003. During that testimony, Bonds was asked if his ever took any steroids that his trainer and friend, Greg Anderson (who worked with/for BALCO) gave him. He was asked, point blank, if he had taken steroids, testosterone, flax seed oil, the cream, or any other steroids. Each time Bonds said, "no." So there's the first charge - perjury - lying while under oath.

Count Two: Perjury, 5-Year Maximum Sentence
Bonds was also asked if Anderson ever injected him, or ever gave him anything that required a needle/syringe to use. Bonds also replied, "no." That's the second count of perjury.

Count Three: Perjury, 5-Year Maximum Sentence
Bonds was asked if Anderson ever gave him human growth hormone or testosterone. Again, Bonds answered, "no." And again, that's another perjury charge.

Count Four: Perjury, 5-Year Maximum Sentence
Bonds was asked about a lotion/balm Anderson gave him. Bonds claims Anderson told him it was flax seed oil. Bonds said he used the substance about once a home stand and didn't start using it until the 2003 season. As the prosecutor referenced a calendar from December 2001 with a "BB" on it, Bonds was asked if he had taken any of those items (the cream, the clear, flax seed oil) prior to 2003. He was asked several times in several ways if he had taken any of those items from Anderson prior to 2003 and each time he replied, "no," and thus there's the fourth perjury charge.

Count Five: Obstruction Of Justice, 10-Year Maximum Sentence
Based on the information above, Bonds is accused of intentionally giving false, misleading and evasive answers to a federal grand jury.

With all that understood, here are my thoughts/questions.

(1) Regardless of the result of a trial/plea deal, this is the end of Barry Bonds' baseball career. He's a free agent on the tail-end of his playing days anyway. No team in the league is going to offer someone facing these kind of charges any kind of deal, especially considering he could end up in jail as a result.

(2) The fact that a federal grand jury has filed these charges is as close to iron-clad proof as we've seen to date that Bonds did, in fact, cheat his way into the record books. Only an actual plea deal or conviction would be more convincing.

(3) Former Commissioner Fay Vincent said this is worse than Pete Rose getting caught betting on baseball, and similar to the 1919 "Black Sox" scandal. I would still argue the Black Sox case was worse because they were trying to lose, but there's no question the Bonds case is worse than Rose.

(4) If he is found guilty, what happens to all of his records, most notably single-season homeruns, and career homeruns? I would imagine Hank Aaron would be "re-crowned" the all-time king, but would the single-season record revert back to another suspected cheat, Mark McGwire? I don't see how that's much of a solution. If not Mac, is Sammy Sosa the single-season champ? Or do we dip all the way back down to Roger Maris' 61, which is now 7th on the list?

(5) Will Bonds get into the Hall of Fame if he is convicted? If he is acquitted?

(6) Will Bonds' attorneys advise him to accept a plea deal, a-la Michael Vick, or will this case go to trial?

(7) Will Bonds roll over on former teammates or opponents in an effort to get his sentence reduced?

(8) What, if any impact will this have on the game of baseball in 2008 if the case does go to trial?

Bonds is due in court December 7. One of ESPN's legal experts seems to think if Bonds is convicted, he won't serve more than a year or two in prison. Still, what a mess.

Miggy On The Block?

Yes, he is. It seems the Baltimore Orioles, after amassing a .447 winning percentage (or .553 losing percentage) over 10 straight losing seasons (the 3rd longest active streak in baseball) are finally coming to grips with the fact that big changes need to be made.

In addition to getting whatever they can for Tejada, which will be significantly less than what they would have received a few years ago when they weren't winning either, I think they should look to deal Brian Roberts and Erik Bedard too. And here's why.

Roberts just turned 30. He's completely healed from that horiffic shoulder injury that ended his 2005 season and he posted a career best 50 steals in 2007. In other words, his best years are right now. There's a good chance he will never be more valuable and he is a free agent after 2009 not 2008, so he wouldn't be a "rent-a-player" in the eyes of suitors. There's no reason to think they wouldn't be able to get 2 or 3 significant prospects for him.

Next to Bedard. This is a tougher pill to swallow because he looked like the best pitcher in baseball from May through mid-August and he'll turn just 29 in spring training. But he's arbitration-eligible after 2008, eligible for free agency after 2009, will cost a boatload to resign, will be looking for a long-term deal, and then you'll have him in his early-to-mid 30's, rather than mid-to-late 20's. I'm inclined to think there aren't many teams out there that wouldn't give up their top prospect to get him. If you were the New York Yankees, would you part ways with Phil Hughes if you could get Erik Bedard? That's an instant upgrade if you're New York, and that's a team that's built to win yesterday, not now. Imagine who else they might be able to get. Justin Upton? Andy LaRoche? Homer Bailey? Yovani Gallardo? I don't think any of those offers would be laughed at.

Add up the prospects you'd be able to acquire for Tejada, Roberts, and Bedard, combine them with Nick Markakis, Matt Weiters, Chris Ray, Adam Loewen, Pedro Beato, Freddy Deza, Hayden Penn, and subtract the fat you'd trim by cutting ties with guys like Melvin Mora, Kevin Millar, Jay Gibbons, and others and you know what you have? A team that can actually compete with the Yankees and Red Sox in 2010. It might not be a popular decision right now. But fans would forget quickly once they start winning.

To All The Sox Fans C.C.ing Red Right Now...

Yes, your boy Josh Beckett lost out in the Cy Young voting to a guy he beat twice in the ALCS and he did so by a surprisingly large margin. But let's not forget you just won your second World Series title in 4 years, swept the hottest team in postseason history, had the AL Rookie of the Year and two more of your rookies get votes in the category, and your arch-rival just lost their best player to free agency.

Things could be worse. You could be any other team in baseball.

Hip-Hip, Overpaid!

Yankee fans are likely excited that Jorge Posada is staying in the Bronx for the foreseeable future. He reportedly agreed to a 4-year, $52.4 million dollar deal with the club. I know he's coming off of arguably his best season in pinstripes (.338, 20, 90) but will the Yankees (and their fans) be as excited about this deal in 4 years when JP is 40 and making $13.1 million? To me, it seems like a high risk offering a catcher on the wrong side of 35 a contract that long and that lucrative.

Since turning 36, Mike Piazza hasn't had 400 at-bats in a season, hasn't hit over .285 and hasn't topped 70 RBI. Ivan Rodriguez turns 36 next month and is coming off a season where he posted some of the worst offensive numbers of his career (11 HR, 9 BB, .294 OBP, .420 SLG). Johnny Bench retired after the 1983 season, most of which he spent as a 35-year-old hitting .255 with 12 HR and 54 RBI. Carlton Fisk is really the only catcher in this class to post moderately good numbers after turning 35. In 1985 as a 37-year-old with the White Sox, he hit won the Silver Slugger after going 37/107 with 17 steals. But he only hit .238 and wouldn't top 500 AB's again in his career.

My guess is, this deal won't look so hot a year or two from now.

(With One Exception) They Got It Right

Dustin Pedroia was named AL Rookie of the Year today, and Ryan Braun, NL Rookie of the Year. I've given both these awards a good deal of analysis, and while I'm sure Rockies fans will be singing the "Tulowitzki Got Robbed" blues, you can't argue with Braun's offensive prowess.

Pedroia, one of three Red Sox to get ROY votes, finished with a huge margin of victory over Tampa's Delmon Young, while Braun beat Tulowitzki by just 2 points which is the closest vote in 27 years.

Braun had 17 first place votes, 12 seconds, and somehow, one third place vote. The guy who put him third shouldn't be allowed to vote on any baseball award ever again. Whoever it was, picked Kyle Kendrick second, and Braun third. Kendrick went 10-4 with a 3.97 ERA for the Phillies in 20 starts from June 13 on, while Braun had the best slugging percentage for a rookie in baseball history, while hitting .324 with 34 bombs and 94 RBI.

I'm really not kidding about that guy. He shouldn't be allowed to vote for a baseball award ever again. This year couldn't have been more cut and dry- it's Braun or Tulowitzki first, the other guy second, and then Hunter Pence, Kendrick, Chris Young or possibly James Loney third. All but one of the 32 voters understood that. The one guy who didn't should be asked politely to excuse himself from future voting.

Tomorrow, the AL Cy Young award winer will be announced and the vote between Josh Beckett and C.C. Sabathia could be as close as the Braun/Tulowitzki balloting. If Dan Haren somehow ends up with a second place vote, we'll know who cast it.

Both Managers of the Year will be announced Wednesday, followed by NL Cy Young, Thursday. Then next Monday, they do AL MVP, followed by NL MVP, Tuesday.

Kyle Kendrick. Give me a break.

Trying To Exorcise The Demons

The Devil has been given his walking papers in Tampa. Next year, Florida's American League franchise will be known only as the "Rays."

Unfortunately, the Tampa Bay Rays are now the only rhyming team in all of baseball, and of course the reality is, they could call themselves the Tampa Bay Red Sox, the Tampa Bay Canadiens, or the Tampa Bay Silly Nannies (Family Guy reference) but until they get some pitching to compliment Scott Kazmir, they're not going to get any better.

I do see what Tampa is trying to do though, and I must admit, I don't hate it. They're trying to start fresh...trying to reinvent a team that doesn't have much of an identity yet. Will the new hats and jerseys work? Not by themselves they won't. But at least the team isn't content to idle along.

This is the only franchise in baseball with a winning percentage below .400. This is a franchise that in 10 seasons, has lost 95 or more games a total of seven times, has never finished higher than 4th in the division, and has never won 71 games. They can only go up from here.

And there are teams with a more bleak outlook for 2008. In addition to Kazmir, the Rays will return Carl Crawford, promising up-and-comers B.J. Upton and Delmon Young, closer Al Reyes, and likely, newly anointed Silver Slugger winner Carlos Pena. They might not be a playoff team any time soon, but they won't be this bad for too much longer...no matter what you call them.

M-Cab...The New A-Rod?

Apparently the Marlins and Yankees are talking about it, although given that New York doesn't appear to be interested in parting with Phil Hughes or Joba Chamberlain, I don't see why Florida would trade their 24-year-old superstar to the Yanks, even though he is a free agent at the end of '08.

There's no question this guy is a franchise cornerstone, though. In four and a half big league seasons, he's already a career .313 hitter with 138 homeruns, 523 RBI, and an OPS of .930. If he stays put and Johan Santana does too, the '08 trading deadline has the potential to be absolutely nuts!

Is He Worth The Weight?

Curt Schilling resigned with the Boston Red Sox today for $8 million dollars plus a lot more, potentially, in incentives. He turns 41 next week, so in that regard, $8M+ seems like the Sox got ripped off. But given that he is (a) no ordinary 41-year-old, (b) clearly still a dominating postseason performer, and (c) easily the best free agent starter on the market, I'd say the Sox did just fine.

What I find, curious I guess, is one particular clause in Schilling's deal. It says he can get an extra $2 million dollars next season if he successfully passes 6 monthly weigh-ins.

My question is, why would a veteran starting pitcher, who clearly needs to rely on conditioning, endurance, and location at this stage in his career, need financial motivation to stay fit?

The story I saw didn't say what Schilling needs to weigh to earn his bonuses, but on his ESPN.com bio page, he's listed at 6'5'', 235 pounds. It also says his middle name is "Montague." Who knew?

First Team, All-Free-Agent

The deadline to file for free agency is November 13 and many players already have. Here's a look at some of the top names.

Catcher: Jorge Posada, Paul LoDuca, Michael Barrett, Yorvit Torrealba

First Base: Sean Casey, Brad Wilkerson

Seconod Base: Luis Castillo, Kaz Matsui

Shortstop: David Eckstein, Mark Loretta

Third Base: Alex Rodriguez, Pedro Feliz, Corey Koskie, Mike Lamb, Abraham Nunez

Outfield: Torii Hunter, Andruw Jones, Aaron Rowand, Barry Bonds, Mike Cameron, Corey Patterson, Shawn Green, Cliff Floyd, Geoff Jenkins

Designated Hitter: Mike Piazza, Mike Sweeney, Sammy Sosa

Starting Pitcher: Curt Schilling, Bartolo Colon, Freddy Garcia, Livan Hernandez, Josh Fogg, Kenny Rogers, Tom Glavine, Jeff Weaver, Kip Wells

Relief Pitcher: Mariano Rivera, Francisco Cordero, Todd Jones, Eric Gagne, JC Romero, Kerry Wood

Based on that, I would have to say the starting lineup of best available free agents would look something like this...

SS David Eckstein
LF Aaron Rowand
CF Torii Hunter
3b Alex Rodriguez
C Jorge Posada
RF Andruw Jones
1b Sean Casey
DH Mike Piazza
2b Luis Castillo

SP Cust Schilling
SP Bartolo Colon
SP Freddy Garcia
SP Livan Hernandez
SP Josh Fogg
SU JC Romero
CP Mariano Rivera

Aside from A-Rod and Hunter, there is a whole lot of risk in this year's crop, and not many sure things.

Hello Joe: Part II, And More

Joe Torre will manage the LA Dodgers this coming season, setting up the all-important question: does this mean Alex Rodriguez will follow? It sure would make sense because he would give LA a big bat in a lineup that desperately needed one last year. After all, the Dodgers' leading homerun hitter (Jeff Kent) had 20 and their leading RBI man (Russ Martin) had 87. If they did get A-Rod, the new LA lineup look something like this...

CF Juan Pierre
SS Rafael Furcal
C Russ Martin
3B Alex Rodriguez
1b James Loney
2b Jeff Kent
RF Andre Ethier
LF Matt Kemp
P Derek Lowe

Funny how adding one of the best players in baseball history makes a team look pretty damn good.

It's hard to say how LA will do before we know where A-Rod will land. But there's no question Torre is an improvement over Grady Little. I would imagine the Dodgers' win total should follow suit.