A Different Take On Steroids

In case any of you are interested, I did a fairly in-depth investigation into steroid-use among young people in the Piedmont Triad area of North Carolina, where I live and work. You can see that TV news story here. My station's main anchor also interviewed me about my experiences during my playing days. That web news story is here.

WE'LL NEVER KNOW THE TRUTH

Unless someone other than Brian McNamee comes forward with something significant, we'll never know who is telling the truth about Roger Clemens and steroids.

You have the accused whose alleged steroid and PED use is not impossible to believe, given among other things (a) his late-career success, (b) Andy Pettitte's admission that he (Clemens) discussed using PEDs with him (Pettitte) when they were teammates, (c) the fact that his own wife admitted to using HGH injected by McNamee, and (d) may have tampered with a witness (his former Nanny) prior to her meeting with Congress regarding his absence or presence at a party thrown by admitted steroid-user Jose Canseco.

Conversely, you have an accuser who is (a) a pathological liar, (b) an admitted drug-dealer and (c) in possession of little more than his own version of what happened along with so-called "forensic evidence" that is years old and would hold absolutely no legal clout due to chain of custody issues.

After watching the bulk of this 4 hour 40 minute hearing today, I went back and forth several times as to who I believed before reaching the conclusion, impossible as it is given their diametrically-opposed testimony, that I don't believe either one of them.

In my opinion, Clemens rambled too much, used the crutch word "again..." in nearly every single one of his responses, and was unable to provide cogent answers to tough questions, while McNamee came across as a smug, sniveling, street-smart, conman.

I am sure there will be pressure for some sort of follow-up, whether it's more questioning for Andy Pettitte (who Congressman Elijah Cummings said is the only person he believes in all this), a Department of Justice investigation, or perjury charges. But as for proving Clemens' guilt or innocence today, I don't think either happened.

For the record, Jayson Stark has an incredibly-detailed and at times, quite humorous blog about all this. It's definitely worth a read.

The Rocket's Red Scare

If this is true, if Roger Clemens talked with Andy Pettitte about his own HGH-use in the late-90s, then the Rocket might be grounded for good. Pettitte has been excused from testifying today on Capitol Hill, but it's what's in his affidavit that could put his former teammate into "Barry Bonds territory"- accused of lying to the feds about performance-enhancing drugs and potentially facing jail time.

As Howard Bryant writes, somebody or several somebodies will come out of today's hearings looking awfully bad. It's either going to be Clemens...or McNamee and George Mitchell (Mitchell isn't actually testifying, but Charlie Scheeler, one of the investigators who worked on the Mitchell Report, is). There's no way all three men will escape unscathed because all three have taken such vehement and opposing positions. Either Clemens will emerge in Duke lacrosse player fashion as the victim of unthinkably false allegations and McNamee will look like scum and Mitchell will look like an incompetent dope...or the exact opposite will happen.

Stay tuned. The hearings are scheduled to begin at 10 o'clock...ironically, in the same room as the 2005 hearings featuring a finger-wagging Rafael Palmeiro, a suddenly-non-English-speaking Sammy Sosa, and a not-here-to-talk-about-the-past Mark McGwire.

Joba, The What?

With pitchers and catchers reporting to spring training today, the New York Yankees already have very specific plans for rookie Joba Chamberlain this year, according to the New York Post.

In an effort to keep him from exceeding 140 IP in '08, the Bombers want him to start the season as Mariano Rivera's set-up man. Then some time in June, they'll send him down to the minors so he can begin to train to become a starter. After about a month, they'll bring him back up and he'll join the rotation for the rest of the season.

Memo to New York: It won't be that easy.

It's not that hard to imagine the Yankees getting off to a hot start the first 60 games of the season, keeping pace with Boston in the AL East and with the Angels, Mariners, Tigers and Indians in the Wild Card race. With a new manager, the core of the team re-signed and injury-free, and a dynamite bullpen highlighted by Joba and Mo, it's not inconcievable that New York could go, I dunno, 36-24 by shortening most games to 7 innings then sending in their lights-out relievers for the last 6 outs. But I find it awfully hard to believe the Yankees will then destroy that bullpen continuity by sending Joba down and having him join the rotation. It wouldn't take more than 2 or 3 Kyle Farnsworth/LaTroy Hawkins meltdowns for the Pinstripers to realize they had a pair of aces and discarded one of them.

On the flipside, say Joba struggles as a set-up man. Does a promotion from the pen to the rotation all-the-sudden seem prudent? Usually it goes the other way- a starter flounders, then becomes a reliever. Or what if they send him down, and he stinks as a starter? Does he go back to the pen, back to the minors, or does New York punt every 5th game?

And on the other flipside (yes, there are at least three sides to this particular coin), say the Yankees don't start hot. Say Pettitte and Mussina show their age, while Hughes and Kennedy show theirs and New York is at a loss for arms. Do you think the Yankees will wait until more than a third of the season is in the books to make a move? I doubt it.

Simply put, the Joba Rules are too simply put to have a snowball's chance of panning out exactly the way the Yankees want.

Bedard Deal Official

The Baltimore Sun has a nice breakdown of who the O's are getting for Erik Bedard, now that the deal is done. And right now, it looks like they got a lot more than what the Twins got for Johan Santana.

I already knew a little bit about 22-year-old center fielder Adam Jones, but not much more about the other four guys. Among them, it appears there's a 30-year-old closer candidate for this season (George Sherill), two potential mid-rotation starters who are just 20 and 19 (Tony Butler and Chris Tillman), and a 23-year-old closer candidate in-waiting (Kam Mickolio). All this for a bona fide ace who's not yet 29, but also has yet to pitch 200 innings in a season, has never been an All-Star, and has zero postseason appearances.

Well done, Birds.

Now, get what you can for Brian Roberts and we'll check back with you in 2010.

Remember When These Guys Just Made Baseball News?

In the Roger Clemens/Brian McNamee saga, we now know this much. Somebody is lying to the federal government. Clemens continues to deny any and all wrongdoing, while McNamee has produced pictures of what he claims is physical evidence that the Rocket used illegal performance-enhancing drugs. Clemens and legal experts have questioned the so-called "chain of custody" of this evidence, and how, even if the DNA tests link Clemens to this stuff, there's no way to prove it hasn't been tampered with in the years it's been sitting in McNamee's basement. Wednesday's televised testimony with these guys should be interesting.

Regarding the whole Pedro Martinez cockfighting thing, people will try to compare this to Michael Vick, and those people are flat wrong. Vick broke the law. Martinez did not. Vick was in the US. Martinez was in the Dominican. Millions of people have dogs as pets. Very few have gamecocks as pets. Very few people eat dog meat. Most people eat some type of bird meat. I can see how on the heels of Vick, the Mets probably aren't thrilled that video of Pedro at a cockfight surfaced on the web. That's not exactly the kind of PR you want to have right after trading for the best pitcher on the planet. And I'll be the first to say I don't get what's so thrilling about watching birds with razors on their beaks and talons peck each other to death. It seems kind of barbaric. But it's just not the same thing as dogfighting- not even close. In fact, it's so much different that it's not worth mentioning any further.

And finally, I'll say this about Curt Schilling and Shouldergate. Even if he doesn't throw a pitch in 2008, the Sox will still have the best pitching staff in their division with Beckett, Dice-K, Lester, Buchholz, and Wakefield. No other team is close (sorry Yankee fans). They might miss Schilling in October, though. In 19 career starts, he's 11-2 with a 2.23 ERA and 120 K's. That will be hard to replace. But if the bloody sock is any indicator of this guy's guts, he'll be back on the field as soon as he's able.

Look Familiar?

To me, the Washington Nationals' new home ballpark looks a whole lot like Citizens Bank in Philadelphia. I'm not saying that was by design, and I liked the Bank the two times I was there. I just find it curious.

For the record, it's called "Nationals Park." That's about as exciting as their team should be this season.

Bye Bye Bedard

It looks like it's a reality in Baltimore. If 22-year-old Adam Jones is as good as advertised (he went .314, 25 HR, 27 doubles, .382 OBP last year in AAA) then the Birds will have the makings of a nice offensive future with Nick Markakis and catcher Matt Wieters, who's rated the number one backstop prospect in the game right now.

Is Brian Roberts next on the chopping block? If he's not, he should be, in my opinion.

Shea What?!

Provided he reaches a long-term deal and passes a physical, it looks like baseball's best pitcher is going to the other New York team in exchange for four prospects. Everyone knows how good Santana is. His average season over the last 4 years looks like this...17.5 wins, 246 K's, 2.89 ERA, and 1/2 of a Cy Young Award (he's won 2 since 2004).

As for the prospects, outfielder Carlos Gomez just turned 22 and had 12 steals in only 125 AB's last year for New York. He also amassed 157 in 1500 minor league AB's, so he has big-time speed. Here are his red flags, though. He's not a particularly high-average guy, his strikeout-to-walk ratio is 3:1, and he doesn't hit for much power. One scouting report I read on him said "Coco Crisp with a much, much better arm." Still, he is rated as New York's number 3 prospect overall by Baseball America.

Deolis Guerra turns 19 in a couple of months and spent 2007 in high-A ball where the righty went 2-6 with a 4.01 ERA along with 66 K's and 25 BB's in just under 90 innings. He's 6'5'', 200 pounds (a good pitcher's body) and while scouts believe he's inconsistent at this point, he was also rated as New York's number 2 prospect overall and is said to have the best change-up in the organization. He also played in the Futures Game last summer.

Philip Humber is New York's number 7 prospect overall and scouts seem to think he's just about ready for the big leagues. He just turned 25 and went 11-9 last year in Triple-A, striking out nearly one batter per inning. He's also about two and a half years removed from Tommy John surgery. Scouts think the surgery has lowered his ceiling from that of a number 2 starter down to a 4 or 5, but he also has the best curveball in the organization.

Finally, Kevin Mulvey (whose name makes me think of "Mulva" from the Seinfeld episode where Jerry's girlfriend's name rhymes with a female body part, but he doesn't know which one) is another right handed starter who spent most of 2007 in Double-A, going 11-10 with a 3.26 ERA. He's not a big strikeout guy, doesn't have a dominant pitch, but mixes his stuff well and projects to be another 4th or 5th starter. He ranks as New York's 4th best prospect overall and is 22 years old. He also has the best slider of any Mets pitcher.

So essentially, Minnesota gave up the best pitcher of the 21st century for a speedy, defensive-stud outfielder and 3 young right-handers, none of whom project to be a number 2 starter in the majors. All told, they got New York's 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 7th top prospects, but did not get their best position player (another outfielder, 19-year-old Fernando Martinez who bats left, throws right, played in the '07 Futures Game and is the Mets' best power and contact hitter), or their best young arm- 24-year-old Mike Pelfrey, who got hit around in '07 but still made 13 starts with the big club.

Let's not forget the Mets also have to pay Santana, likely somewhere in the neighborhood of 6 years, $150 million. Still, the consensus seems to be Minnesota walked away from this deal without getting a really exciting prospect in return.

As for the Mets, here's what they'll look like on opening day...

SS Jose Reyes
2b Luis Castillo
CF Carlos Beltran
3B David Wright
1b Carlos Delgado
LF Moises Alou
RF Ryan Church
C Brian Schneider

LHP Johan Santana
RHP Pedro Martinez
RHP John Maine
LHP Oliver Perez
RHP Orlando Hernandez/LHP Mike Pelfrey
CP Billy Wagner

In the weak NL East which features the depleted Braves, Marlins and Nationals, New York's only real competition will be Philadelphia, which may have taken a step backwards since 2007 ended. In the outfield, they lost Aaron Rowand to free agency and traded Michael Bourne, only to sign the oft-injured Geoff Jenkins. That's a big downgrade. They got Brad Lidge in the Bourne deal, who will replace another questionable closer, Tom Gordon. That could be an upgrade, or it could be a push. They also lost Tad Iguchi and Jon Lieber to free agency, while Freddy Garcia, Antonio Alfonseco, and Jose Mesa remain unsigned. They did ink Pedro Feliz to play third base, but I'm inclined to think this team is, at best, as good as it was last year, while the Mets are significantly better with Santana.

One more thing that's worth noting is that when/if the Santana deal gets done and if Erik Bedard goes to Seattle, 3 of baseball's best, young pitchers will have been traded this offseson when you add Dan Haren to the list. I'm inclined to think that doesn't happen all that often.

Wow, an entire post without mentioning steroids once! See, it is possible.

I'm Back, And Baseball Needs To Be Soon

Sorry I haven't posted in a while. No good excuse other than the holidays and a busy work schedule.

Anyhoo...I must say, after the Steroid Report To End All Steroid Reports came out, I felt like I didn't really know what my opinion was, so I didn't want to write anything about it until the dust had settled somewhat and until I had some time to reflect. So now that a month has passed, here's my assessment, for what it's worth.

First, I guess my main problem with the SRTEASR is that it is merely a snapshot of the problem. George Mitchell openly admits that players weren't at all helpful during this and that the players mentioned were the only ones he felt confident "outing." Plus, as several ESPN Radio talk show hosts pointed out, if Kirk Radomski hadn't landed squarely in Mitchel's lap, the SRTEASR would have been a leaflet rather than a 400-page novel. So my question is, how is it fair to guys like Andy Pettitte and Brian Roberts that there are likely hundreds of other players out there who are just as guilty, or perhaps even more guilty (i.e. juiced for longer stretches of time), but somehow get a pass because they weren't associated with Radomski or Brian McNamee?

Second, I still find myself dealing with somewhat of a moral dilemma when it comes to the similarities (and differences) between Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens. Allegations aside, they are hands-down the two best players in the last 20 years, having padded already remarkable stats significantly in their late 30s and early 40s. Allegations aside, these are also two of the greatest players ever. Allegations aside, if you were to make a team of the best statistical performers of all time, you'd better believe these two are on the roster. But now, there are allegations and the slam-dunk-first-ballot-Hall-of-Fame-credentials of these two men are being scrutinized. I wondered why I wasn't instantly feeling the same animosity towards Clemens that I often do with Bonds. I thought Jayson Stark's article about these two was a total bull's eye, but after seeing Clemens on 60 Minutes, and seeing his press conference with the taped phone call with McNamee, I still wasn't as convinced of his innocence as I would have liked, and I hate that. Clearly there is much more evidence linking Bonds to PEDs as compared to Clemens, but I think Mike Wallace's question hits home- "what did McNamee gain by lying?" I know this much. You can't lie to the federal government. You can lie to yourself, to fans, to the media, and to George Mitchell. But you can't lie to the federal government. If you do, they're going to get you. I think it will be very interesting to see what Clemens says when he meets with lawmakers next month and if he adamantly maintains his innocence then, it could help his case significantly. But if he goes all "Mark McGwire" on them, it will do the exact opposite.

And third, I wonder if the general frustration I feel towards the whole steroids scandal is something a lot of baseball fans feel. I kind of miss the days when I'd click on ESPN.com's MLB link and the top stories were about offseason moves, not about who's saying what about which former or current player and whether that former or current player is admitting or denying it. I'm sick of it. And it's not going to go away any time soon, until all the players implicated in this thing are done playing.

But now that Erik Bedard may be headed to Seattle, and now that the Twins may still deal Johan Santana, perhaps we can get back to what's good about baseball, and away from what's so wrong with it.