His year-and-a-half investigation is over and according to some, he's going to call out 60-80 former and current players for using steroids. But what I want to know about former Senate Majority Leader George Mitchell's report is this: what happens next?
What if one or more of those 60-80 broke a single season record? An all-time record? Won an end of season award? Have since been voted into the Hall of Fame? Are still playing today? Are now managing a team? Are now working in a front office? Are now working as an analyst somewhere? What, if anything, happens to these people? Is the fact that they've been named as part of this probe punishment enough? And perhaps most importantly, is being named in this report sufficient proof that said player did, in fact, use steroids?
Commissioner Bud Selig never addressed these issues during his press conference on March 30, 2006, when he first announced what Mitchell would be doing. I would imagine he can't hide from these queries after today, though. Mitchell will announce his findings at 2 this afternoon, and Selig will follow up with his own newser at 4:30.
Let's just say it should be an interesting day for the game of baseball.
Thursday, December 13, 2007
Wednesday, December 12, 2007
Rowand On The River (Or Bay)
Aaron Rowand is headed west. The All-Star centerfielder signed a 5-year, $60 million dollar deal with the Giants today, saying he wanted to be in one place for a long time. That's fine. But it does not appear the team in that one place is going to be particularly competitive any time soon.
Yes, the Giants have a decent rotation with Cain, Lincecum, and Zito. But their offense, even with Rowand, remains thin at best. Bonds is gone, Pedro Feliz is a free agent and the players that remain (Vizquel, Aurilia, Winn, Dave Roberts, Bengie Molina) are all at least in their mid-to-late 30s. And let's not forget they play in the same division as the NL champion Rockies, the NL's best regular-season team (Arizona), and an LA club that's added Andruw Jones and might not be done wheeling and dealing.
That's not to say Rowand won't win at all in San Fran. If they add a few bats in a few places, they have the staff to be dangerous. But don't expect that to happen in 2008.
Yes, the Giants have a decent rotation with Cain, Lincecum, and Zito. But their offense, even with Rowand, remains thin at best. Bonds is gone, Pedro Feliz is a free agent and the players that remain (Vizquel, Aurilia, Winn, Dave Roberts, Bengie Molina) are all at least in their mid-to-late 30s. And let's not forget they play in the same division as the NL champion Rockies, the NL's best regular-season team (Arizona), and an LA club that's added Andruw Jones and might not be done wheeling and dealing.
That's not to say Rowand won't win at all in San Fran. If they add a few bats in a few places, they have the staff to be dangerous. But don't expect that to happen in 2008.
Labels:
aaron rowand,
free agents,
offseason,
san francisco giants
Welcome To The Orioles, Troy Patton!
Upon learning he'd been traded from Houston, along with four other members of the Astros' organization for Miguel Tejada, the 22-year-old lefty pitching prospect and top prize of the deal for Baltimore told the Houston Chronicle...
Wait for it...
Wait for it...
Keep waiting...
Okay, now!
"It's true. It's kind of sad really."
I don't know about you, but I think the O's have found a guy they can put on the front of their 2008 media guide. This kind of enthusiasm just screams 20-game winner, doesn't it?
In addition to Patton, a fireballer who had a solid cup of coffee with the big club in '07, the O's got outfielder Luke Scott, pitchers Matt Albers and Dennis Sarfate, and minor league third baseman Michael Costanzo (I can hear the "can't stand ya!" chants already).
The addition of Scott in this deal is kind of puzzling. He'll turn 30 during the middle of next season and has seen time with Houston for each of the last 3 years. The lefty outfielder put up a really promising '06 with a .336 average, and 10 homeruns in 214 at-bats. But last year he hit just .255 and struck out 95 times in 369 at-bats. How he helps the Orioles now, or ever, I don't know.
Matt Albers will turn 25 in a month. Last year was one to forget for the righty who bounced back and forth from the rotation to the pen. He posted a 4-11 record, 5.86 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, and 1.42 K:BB ratio. He supposedly has a great arm and closer stuff, but needs to learn how to harness it. Sound (Daniel Cabrera) familiar?
Dennis Sarfate is another reliever, turns 27 in early April, and appears to be a big strikeout guy. He had 14 of them (and just one walk) in 8 1/3 last year for Houston. The Orioles will also be his third team in as many years, though. In 2006, he struck out 11 in 8 1/3 for Milwaukee. A 9th round pick in 2000, he's averaged just about a strikeout an inning for his entire pro career.
And finally, Michael Costanzo is a 24-year-old slugging third baseman from Coastal Carolina. He was the 65th player taken in the 2005 draft and hit 27 homeruns last year at double-A Reading. He bats left, throws right and was Carolina's closer in 2005.
So all told, the Orioles got two pretty solid prospects (Patton and Costanzo), two more "maybe" pitchers (Albers and Sarfate) and a "help-you-now" throw-in (Scott). O's fans should be glad they finally traded Miggy, but they would have been able to get a whole lot more for him an offseason ago. They can only hope Bedard and Roberts go next, and that the team gets more in return for them.
As for Houston, it would appear exciting times are ahead for this bunch, as they are now the team with the best chance of supplanting the Cubs atop the NL Central. Their opening day lineup might look something like this...
CF Michael Bourne
2b Kaz Matsui
LF Carlos Lee
1b Lance Berkman
RF Hunter Pence
SS Miguel Tejada
3b Ty Wigginton
C Brad Ausmus
That's a lot of speed at the top, and a lot of pop in the middle. We'll see if they have enough pitching to be competitive.
Wait for it...
Wait for it...
Keep waiting...
Okay, now!
"It's true. It's kind of sad really."
I don't know about you, but I think the O's have found a guy they can put on the front of their 2008 media guide. This kind of enthusiasm just screams 20-game winner, doesn't it?
In addition to Patton, a fireballer who had a solid cup of coffee with the big club in '07, the O's got outfielder Luke Scott, pitchers Matt Albers and Dennis Sarfate, and minor league third baseman Michael Costanzo (I can hear the "can't stand ya!" chants already).
The addition of Scott in this deal is kind of puzzling. He'll turn 30 during the middle of next season and has seen time with Houston for each of the last 3 years. The lefty outfielder put up a really promising '06 with a .336 average, and 10 homeruns in 214 at-bats. But last year he hit just .255 and struck out 95 times in 369 at-bats. How he helps the Orioles now, or ever, I don't know.
Matt Albers will turn 25 in a month. Last year was one to forget for the righty who bounced back and forth from the rotation to the pen. He posted a 4-11 record, 5.86 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, and 1.42 K:BB ratio. He supposedly has a great arm and closer stuff, but needs to learn how to harness it. Sound (Daniel Cabrera) familiar?
Dennis Sarfate is another reliever, turns 27 in early April, and appears to be a big strikeout guy. He had 14 of them (and just one walk) in 8 1/3 last year for Houston. The Orioles will also be his third team in as many years, though. In 2006, he struck out 11 in 8 1/3 for Milwaukee. A 9th round pick in 2000, he's averaged just about a strikeout an inning for his entire pro career.
And finally, Michael Costanzo is a 24-year-old slugging third baseman from Coastal Carolina. He was the 65th player taken in the 2005 draft and hit 27 homeruns last year at double-A Reading. He bats left, throws right and was Carolina's closer in 2005.
So all told, the Orioles got two pretty solid prospects (Patton and Costanzo), two more "maybe" pitchers (Albers and Sarfate) and a "help-you-now" throw-in (Scott). O's fans should be glad they finally traded Miggy, but they would have been able to get a whole lot more for him an offseason ago. They can only hope Bedard and Roberts go next, and that the team gets more in return for them.
As for Houston, it would appear exciting times are ahead for this bunch, as they are now the team with the best chance of supplanting the Cubs atop the NL Central. Their opening day lineup might look something like this...
CF Michael Bourne
2b Kaz Matsui
LF Carlos Lee
1b Lance Berkman
RF Hunter Pence
SS Miguel Tejada
3b Ty Wigginton
C Brad Ausmus
That's a lot of speed at the top, and a lot of pop in the middle. We'll see if they have enough pitching to be competitive.
Labels:
baltimore orioles,
houston astros,
miguel tejada,
offseason,
trades
Lost In Translation?
Kosuke Fukudome is slated to become the latest Japanese position player to cross the Pacific and play in the majors next season. He just signed a 4-year, $48 million dollar deal with the Chicago Cubs, where he'll be the starting rightfielder and provide, the Cubs hope, some left-handed pop and protection for righty sluggers Alfonso Soriano, Derrick Lee, and Aramis Ramirez.
His 2007 season was shortened due to elbow surgery but back in 2006 he was the league MVP, hitting .351 with 31 homeruns and 104 RBI. He throws right-handed, turns 31 in late April, and at 5-11, 187, he's not a particularly big fellow.
I've heard Fukudome compared to J.D Drew on more than one occasion. Hopefully for Cub fans, those comparisons are based on talent and ceiling, not passion for the game or durability.
Like with most far east imports, it will be interesting to see how Fukudome's numbers translate against big league pitching over the course of a 162-game season. Ichiro has most certainly been as good as advertised, although it's interesting to point out that after 7 full seasons in the US, his batting average, on base percentage, slugging percentage, homerun, RBI and walk totals are all lower than his Japanese numbers after 7 full seasons. He's still a Gold Glover, perennial All-Star, and Hall of Famer in the states, you just won't see him flirt with a 1.000 OPS here like he did in Japan.
Hideki Matsui is probably the second-best of the recent imports, and even he hasn't hit for the same power he did in Japan. He averaged a homerun every 13.8 at-bats for the Yomiuri Giants between 1994 and 2002. With the New York Yankees, he goes yard every 24.8 at-bats. His career OPS is also about 140 points lower in the US than it was in Japan although he has cut down on his strikeouts in the Bronx (one every 7 AB's compared to one every 4.9 in Japan). Again, Matsui is a fine player, a tough out, and by all accounts, a good teammate. He's just not an elite slugger here. He's never hit 32 homeruns in a season for New York even though he averaged 37 a year for 9 seasons with Yomiuri.
Then there's the other Matsui- Kazuo. According to an article on ESPN.com dated December 7, 2003, Matsui "is a rare talent with power, speed, and great defense up the middle." It goes on to say how he might be faster than Ichiro, how the Mets are now going to shift Jose Reyes to second base so Kaz can play short, and how he was coming off a .305/33/84 season with Seibu. Fast forward 4 years and 5 days later, and "Little Matsui" is now on his 3rd team, has 17 homeruns, 131 RBI, and a .712 OPS in 1380 career at-bats. In his one season playing short, he made 23 errors and is now a full-time second baseman, although he's never played 115 games in a season. Some baseball fans might not have realized he was still around until his grand slam against the Phillies in Game 2 of the NLDS. To his credit though, he did have a nice season as Colorado's second baseman in 2007 (.288, 84 runs, 32 steals, and 4 errors in 104 games) and parlayed that into a 3-year, $16.5 million dollar deal with Houston.
My point is this. Don't expect Fukudome to hit .350 next season. Don't expect him to hit 30 homeruns. And don't expect him to drive in 100...not in his first season anyway. Realistically, the Cubs got him to generate a little buzz, perhaps bring in some Japanese advertising dollars, and most importantly to replace Jacque Jones, who's now with Detroit. Last year, JJ hit .285 with 33 doubles, 5 homeruns, and 66 RBI in 453 at-bats. My guess is, Fukudome finishes a lot closer to those numbers than he does to his 2006 numbers in Japan.
His 2007 season was shortened due to elbow surgery but back in 2006 he was the league MVP, hitting .351 with 31 homeruns and 104 RBI. He throws right-handed, turns 31 in late April, and at 5-11, 187, he's not a particularly big fellow.
I've heard Fukudome compared to J.D Drew on more than one occasion. Hopefully for Cub fans, those comparisons are based on talent and ceiling, not passion for the game or durability.
Like with most far east imports, it will be interesting to see how Fukudome's numbers translate against big league pitching over the course of a 162-game season. Ichiro has most certainly been as good as advertised, although it's interesting to point out that after 7 full seasons in the US, his batting average, on base percentage, slugging percentage, homerun, RBI and walk totals are all lower than his Japanese numbers after 7 full seasons. He's still a Gold Glover, perennial All-Star, and Hall of Famer in the states, you just won't see him flirt with a 1.000 OPS here like he did in Japan.
Hideki Matsui is probably the second-best of the recent imports, and even he hasn't hit for the same power he did in Japan. He averaged a homerun every 13.8 at-bats for the Yomiuri Giants between 1994 and 2002. With the New York Yankees, he goes yard every 24.8 at-bats. His career OPS is also about 140 points lower in the US than it was in Japan although he has cut down on his strikeouts in the Bronx (one every 7 AB's compared to one every 4.9 in Japan). Again, Matsui is a fine player, a tough out, and by all accounts, a good teammate. He's just not an elite slugger here. He's never hit 32 homeruns in a season for New York even though he averaged 37 a year for 9 seasons with Yomiuri.
Then there's the other Matsui- Kazuo. According to an article on ESPN.com dated December 7, 2003, Matsui "is a rare talent with power, speed, and great defense up the middle." It goes on to say how he might be faster than Ichiro, how the Mets are now going to shift Jose Reyes to second base so Kaz can play short, and how he was coming off a .305/33/84 season with Seibu. Fast forward 4 years and 5 days later, and "Little Matsui" is now on his 3rd team, has 17 homeruns, 131 RBI, and a .712 OPS in 1380 career at-bats. In his one season playing short, he made 23 errors and is now a full-time second baseman, although he's never played 115 games in a season. Some baseball fans might not have realized he was still around until his grand slam against the Phillies in Game 2 of the NLDS. To his credit though, he did have a nice season as Colorado's second baseman in 2007 (.288, 84 runs, 32 steals, and 4 errors in 104 games) and parlayed that into a 3-year, $16.5 million dollar deal with Houston.
My point is this. Don't expect Fukudome to hit .350 next season. Don't expect him to hit 30 homeruns. And don't expect him to drive in 100...not in his first season anyway. Realistically, the Cubs got him to generate a little buzz, perhaps bring in some Japanese advertising dollars, and most importantly to replace Jacque Jones, who's now with Detroit. Last year, JJ hit .285 with 33 doubles, 5 homeruns, and 66 RBI in 453 at-bats. My guess is, Fukudome finishes a lot closer to those numbers than he does to his 2006 numbers in Japan.
Labels:
chicago cubs,
hideki matsui,
ichiro,
japanese players,
kaz matsui,
kosuke fukudome
Monday, December 10, 2007
A Hypothetical Question
This Time, He Deserves It
MLB.com is giving out its annual awards right now, as voted upon by nearly 10 million baseball fans worldwide. Today, it was Josh Beckett winning a "This Year In Baseball" award for being the Top Starting Pitcher.
I know it's not nearly as prestigious as the Cy Young, but I also think that because this award encompasses the entire season rather than just the regular season, Beckett was the right choice. In my opinion, the difference between Beckett and C.C. Sabathia during the regular season was so small that Beckett's dominance in the postseason (including two wins against Sabathia, specifically) was more than enough to make him the best starting pitcher in the bigs this past season.
Tomorrow, MLB.com announces the award for closer, an honor which should go to J.J. Putz (1.38, 40 saves, 82K, 49 baserunners in 71 2/3 IP). The day after that, it's best manager (has to be Clint Hurdle, right?), then performance of the year (another one for Beckett?), rookie (let the Braun/Tulowitzki debate begin again), hitter (A-Rod), setup man (Cleveland's Rafael Betancourt), defensive player (Tulowitzki), blooper/play (no idea, maybe the ALDS bug attack in Cleveland or the entire 30-3 game at Camden Yards?) and finally moment/postseason moment (the Rockies beating Trevor Hoffman in extra innings of an extra game to go to the playoffs).
I know it's not nearly as prestigious as the Cy Young, but I also think that because this award encompasses the entire season rather than just the regular season, Beckett was the right choice. In my opinion, the difference between Beckett and C.C. Sabathia during the regular season was so small that Beckett's dominance in the postseason (including two wins against Sabathia, specifically) was more than enough to make him the best starting pitcher in the bigs this past season.
Tomorrow, MLB.com announces the award for closer, an honor which should go to J.J. Putz (1.38, 40 saves, 82K, 49 baserunners in 71 2/3 IP). The day after that, it's best manager (has to be Clint Hurdle, right?), then performance of the year (another one for Beckett?), rookie (let the Braun/Tulowitzki debate begin again), hitter (A-Rod), setup man (Cleveland's Rafael Betancourt), defensive player (Tulowitzki), blooper/play (no idea, maybe the ALDS bug attack in Cleveland or the entire 30-3 game at Camden Yards?) and finally moment/postseason moment (the Rockies beating Trevor Hoffman in extra innings of an extra game to go to the playoffs).
Can Somebody Please Explain This To Me?
The Milwaukee Brewers and reliever Eric Gagne have agreed to a 1-year, $10 million dollar deal. The team says it needed help in the bullpen after losing Francisco Cordero to the Cincinnati Reds earlier this offseason for $46 million over 4. Let's not forget Gagne will compete with Derrick Turnbow to be Milwaukee's closer. He's not been handed the job yet. And let's also not forget this happened just hours before the New York Yankees signed reliever LaTroy Hawkins to a 1-year, $3.75 million dollar contract.
Here's why I'm so perplexed. First, how on Earth is Eric Gagne worth $10 million dollars right now? Yes, he turns just 32 next month. And yes, at one time he was arguably the most dominant closer in the history of baseball. But this is also a guy who's been with 3 teams and recorded 17 saves since June of 2005. This is a guy whose right arm looks like it's been stolen from the Frankenstein monster and then attached to his body. This is a guy who was so bad for Boston down the stretch that he was relegated to mop-up duty late in the season and in the playoffs. This is a guy who had only 5 appearances out of 25 with the Sox where he didn't allow a baserunner and not once did he retire more than 3 batters. How does that make him worth an 8-figure salary, especially considering he could end up being Derrick Turnbow's set-up man?
Second, supposing Gagne is worth $10 million, how is LaTroy Hawkins worth only $3.75? Hawkins has appeared in at least 60 games for each of the last 8 seasons. During that stretch he has had at least double digits in holds, or double digits in saves every year. He posted a 2.90 ERA and held opposing hitters to a .228 average after the All-Star break and allowed just 3 baserunners over 5 innings in the 2007 playoffs for Colorado. The only way Hawkins will close for the Yanks this season is if Mariano Rivera misses the team bus or takes a liner off the noggin, but still, New York's backup plan could be much worse.
Perhaps Gagne regains his previous form from earlier this decade. After all, I'm sure the Brewers would take even 75% of his '03 season (55 saves, 1.20 ERA, 137 K's, 57 baserunners in 82 1/3 IP, plus a Cy Young Award). But in my opinion, the odds of Gagne being worth more than 2.5 times what LaTroy Hawkins is when '08 is in the books, are not good.
Here's why I'm so perplexed. First, how on Earth is Eric Gagne worth $10 million dollars right now? Yes, he turns just 32 next month. And yes, at one time he was arguably the most dominant closer in the history of baseball. But this is also a guy who's been with 3 teams and recorded 17 saves since June of 2005. This is a guy whose right arm looks like it's been stolen from the Frankenstein monster and then attached to his body. This is a guy who was so bad for Boston down the stretch that he was relegated to mop-up duty late in the season and in the playoffs. This is a guy who had only 5 appearances out of 25 with the Sox where he didn't allow a baserunner and not once did he retire more than 3 batters. How does that make him worth an 8-figure salary, especially considering he could end up being Derrick Turnbow's set-up man?
Second, supposing Gagne is worth $10 million, how is LaTroy Hawkins worth only $3.75? Hawkins has appeared in at least 60 games for each of the last 8 seasons. During that stretch he has had at least double digits in holds, or double digits in saves every year. He posted a 2.90 ERA and held opposing hitters to a .228 average after the All-Star break and allowed just 3 baserunners over 5 innings in the 2007 playoffs for Colorado. The only way Hawkins will close for the Yanks this season is if Mariano Rivera misses the team bus or takes a liner off the noggin, but still, New York's backup plan could be much worse.
Perhaps Gagne regains his previous form from earlier this decade. After all, I'm sure the Brewers would take even 75% of his '03 season (55 saves, 1.20 ERA, 137 K's, 57 baserunners in 82 1/3 IP, plus a Cy Young Award). But in my opinion, the odds of Gagne being worth more than 2.5 times what LaTroy Hawkins is when '08 is in the books, are not good.
Labels:
eric gagne,
free agents,
latroy hawkins,
offseason,
predictions
Thursday, December 6, 2007
The Bonds Market
His arraignment on perjury and obstruction of justice charges stemming from the BALCO investigation is tomorrow, but Barry Bonds says he wants to play baseball next season. For argument's sake, let's assume he avoids jail either via an acquittal or thanks to an exceptionally light sentence. Which teams, if any, would be a good fit?
Well, I think you can all-but-eliminate every single National League team because he just can't play the field any more at an acceptable level. Plus, at this point in his career, he is so much more valuable as a power hitter that it's not worth having to give him a day off so often because of his having played the field the night before. That leaves 14 teams (by the way, why does the NL have two more teams than the AL? Why not move Houston from the NL Central to the AL West? That way, every division in baseball would have 5 teams). Anyway, of those 14 teams, Boston (Ortiz), New York (Giambi), Toronto (Thomas), Chicago (Thome), Cleveland (Hafner), Detroit (Sheffield), Seattle (Vidro), and Oakland (Cust) already have designated hitters who are serviceable or better. That leaves as few as 6 or as many as 8 if you include Seattle and Oakland that would potentially have room for Bonds- Baltimore, Tampa Bay, Kansas City, Minnesota, LA, and Texas.
With the Orioles seemingly trying to get younger rather than older, I just don't see Baltimore being the least bit interested. After all, they already went through Palmeiro-gate once before.
It's probably the same story with Tampa Bay. They have a bunch of young and (in theory) up-and-coming players so I don't see how Bonds would mesh with guys like Upton, Kazmir, Crawford, Longoria, Garza, etc. Let's not forget, the Rays just got rid of Delmon Young who was seen by some as a guy with attitude issues. He's Mr. Congeniality compared to BB.
Kansas City, like Tampa Bay and Baltimore, is a long way from winning or even being competitive in their own division so I don't see Bonds wanting to go there, notwithstanding the fact that the Royals probably wouldn't want him or be able to pay him what he would want, especially considering they just signed Jose Guillen to such an absurd deal.
The Twins are interesting. The odds of Bonds winning a ring there aren't great now that Detroit is so stacked, but he would give them a nice boost in the middle of their order with Morneau, Young, Mauer, Cuddyer and whoever else they get for Santana (I'm still convinced this deal will get done).
LA is also interesting. He could stay out west, give Vlad and Hunter some nice protection and would have the best chance of winning a World Series there than with any other potential suitor.
Texas might be able to pay him and might be willing to take a chance on him (they did the whole Sammy Sosa thing and that actually worked out okay for both sides) but they are not going to finish above Seattle, let alone LA next season, so I doubt Bonds would be too enamored with this team, although given his "situation" (said in a Dane Cook voice), he probably can't be too picky.
Seattle might not be a bad option, although Jose Vidro did have a pretty nice season for the M's last year (.381 OBP, more walks than K's, 600+ plate appearances) and he definitely can't play the field any more so Bonds might not be worth the hit you'd take by losing Vidro in the process.
And in Oakland, Bonds would definitely be a Billy Beane guy...aka a member of the Island of Misfit Toys. But with Dan Haren and Joe Blanton rumored to be on the block and the A's looking to get young again and wait for LA to get old, Bonds just doesn't seem to make as much sense as he did a few months ago.
All that said, I don't think Bonds ever will play again. I have no idea how his trial will play out but will a majority of baseball fans ever actually accept it if he is acquitted? I doubt it. And for that reason, I don't see a big league GM being brave enough to offer him a contract.
Well, I think you can all-but-eliminate every single National League team because he just can't play the field any more at an acceptable level. Plus, at this point in his career, he is so much more valuable as a power hitter that it's not worth having to give him a day off so often because of his having played the field the night before. That leaves 14 teams (by the way, why does the NL have two more teams than the AL? Why not move Houston from the NL Central to the AL West? That way, every division in baseball would have 5 teams). Anyway, of those 14 teams, Boston (Ortiz), New York (Giambi), Toronto (Thomas), Chicago (Thome), Cleveland (Hafner), Detroit (Sheffield), Seattle (Vidro), and Oakland (Cust) already have designated hitters who are serviceable or better. That leaves as few as 6 or as many as 8 if you include Seattle and Oakland that would potentially have room for Bonds- Baltimore, Tampa Bay, Kansas City, Minnesota, LA, and Texas.
With the Orioles seemingly trying to get younger rather than older, I just don't see Baltimore being the least bit interested. After all, they already went through Palmeiro-gate once before.
It's probably the same story with Tampa Bay. They have a bunch of young and (in theory) up-and-coming players so I don't see how Bonds would mesh with guys like Upton, Kazmir, Crawford, Longoria, Garza, etc. Let's not forget, the Rays just got rid of Delmon Young who was seen by some as a guy with attitude issues. He's Mr. Congeniality compared to BB.
Kansas City, like Tampa Bay and Baltimore, is a long way from winning or even being competitive in their own division so I don't see Bonds wanting to go there, notwithstanding the fact that the Royals probably wouldn't want him or be able to pay him what he would want, especially considering they just signed Jose Guillen to such an absurd deal.
The Twins are interesting. The odds of Bonds winning a ring there aren't great now that Detroit is so stacked, but he would give them a nice boost in the middle of their order with Morneau, Young, Mauer, Cuddyer and whoever else they get for Santana (I'm still convinced this deal will get done).
LA is also interesting. He could stay out west, give Vlad and Hunter some nice protection and would have the best chance of winning a World Series there than with any other potential suitor.
Texas might be able to pay him and might be willing to take a chance on him (they did the whole Sammy Sosa thing and that actually worked out okay for both sides) but they are not going to finish above Seattle, let alone LA next season, so I doubt Bonds would be too enamored with this team, although given his "situation" (said in a Dane Cook voice), he probably can't be too picky.
Seattle might not be a bad option, although Jose Vidro did have a pretty nice season for the M's last year (.381 OBP, more walks than K's, 600+ plate appearances) and he definitely can't play the field any more so Bonds might not be worth the hit you'd take by losing Vidro in the process.
And in Oakland, Bonds would definitely be a Billy Beane guy...aka a member of the Island of Misfit Toys. But with Dan Haren and Joe Blanton rumored to be on the block and the A's looking to get young again and wait for LA to get old, Bonds just doesn't seem to make as much sense as he did a few months ago.
All that said, I don't think Bonds ever will play again. I have no idea how his trial will play out but will a majority of baseball fans ever actually accept it if he is acquitted? I doubt it. And for that reason, I don't see a big league GM being brave enough to offer him a contract.
Andruw's Nuw Bluw Cruw
It's the LA Dodgers who have decided to take a chance on Jones, who's coming off his worst season in the bigs. Last year, the 30-year-old winner of 10 straight Gold Gloves hit just .222 with 26 homeruns and 94 RBI. His OPS fell 170 points as well from 2006, which fell 30 points from his career high in 2005.
The move is somewhat surprising considering the jogjam it creates in the LA outfield. They have speedster Juan Pierre in center, promising young bat Andre Ethier in right, another promising (and younger) rightfielder in Matt Kemp, Jason Repko can also play the outfield but was slowed by a foot injury last year, Delwyn Young played sparingly in 2007 but made the most of his 34 at-bats (he hit .382 with an OPS over 1.000) and their leftfielder last season, Luis Gonzalez, remains an unsigned free agent.
So where does Jones fit in? Well, conventional wisdom would say AJ, now their highest-paid outfielder, is going to shift JP, now their second-highest paid outfielder, to left because of his defense. But who plays right- Either, Kemp, Repko, or Young? The answer might depend on a yet-to-be-completed trade. I have to imagine there's plenty of interest out there in Kemp (and third baseman Andy LaRoche for that matter). Does LA now enter the Johan Santana sweepstakes, or go after somebody like Erik Bedard or Dan Haren? Seems to me they should because there just aren't enough ABs to go around for Ethier and Kemp, the two most talented of the group.
As for the specifics of the Jones signing, his 2-year $36.2 million dollar deal is hardly the pay day he (or agent Scott Boras) envisioned after his monster '05 season. And it's actually a bargain considering the Kansas City Royals just gave Jose Guillen the same amount of money, but for 3 years.
Overall, I think this is a shrewd move on behalf of the Dodgers. If Jones' career keeps going south, at least you've upgraded your outfield defense significantly and he's gone after 2009. But if Jones resurrects his career and rediscovers his stroke, then they've just added the bat they were missing all of 2007 and potentially opened the door for a blockbuster deal. With a healthy Rafael Furcal and decent pitching, LA should be in the mix in a tough NL West.
The move is somewhat surprising considering the jogjam it creates in the LA outfield. They have speedster Juan Pierre in center, promising young bat Andre Ethier in right, another promising (and younger) rightfielder in Matt Kemp, Jason Repko can also play the outfield but was slowed by a foot injury last year, Delwyn Young played sparingly in 2007 but made the most of his 34 at-bats (he hit .382 with an OPS over 1.000) and their leftfielder last season, Luis Gonzalez, remains an unsigned free agent.
So where does Jones fit in? Well, conventional wisdom would say AJ, now their highest-paid outfielder, is going to shift JP, now their second-highest paid outfielder, to left because of his defense. But who plays right- Either, Kemp, Repko, or Young? The answer might depend on a yet-to-be-completed trade. I have to imagine there's plenty of interest out there in Kemp (and third baseman Andy LaRoche for that matter). Does LA now enter the Johan Santana sweepstakes, or go after somebody like Erik Bedard or Dan Haren? Seems to me they should because there just aren't enough ABs to go around for Ethier and Kemp, the two most talented of the group.
As for the specifics of the Jones signing, his 2-year $36.2 million dollar deal is hardly the pay day he (or agent Scott Boras) envisioned after his monster '05 season. And it's actually a bargain considering the Kansas City Royals just gave Jose Guillen the same amount of money, but for 3 years.
Overall, I think this is a shrewd move on behalf of the Dodgers. If Jones' career keeps going south, at least you've upgraded your outfield defense significantly and he's gone after 2009. But if Jones resurrects his career and rediscovers his stroke, then they've just added the bat they were missing all of 2007 and potentially opened the door for a blockbuster deal. With a healthy Rafael Furcal and decent pitching, LA should be in the mix in a tough NL West.
Labels:
andruw jones,
free agents,
los angeles dodgers,
offseason
Tuesday, December 4, 2007
Detroit's Dynamic Duo
While we're all waiting for news on Johan Santana, it's Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis who are on the move to Motown, instantly making the Tigers the favorite to win the AL Central next year.
The Marlins get Andrew Miller, a 6'6'', 22-year-old lefty who was the 6th overall pick of last year's draft. He's had some control issues at the big league level- 49 walks in 74 1/3 IP, but his upside is huge. He's definitely the centerpiece of this deal. Also included in the deal...Cameron Maybin a 20-year-old outfielder who was the 10th overall pick of the '05 draft. He got a cup of coffee in the big leagues last year and looked overmatched, punching out 21 times in 49 AB's. But he can hit, hit for power, and run. I read one website that said he was the most exciting position player to come through Detroit's farm system since Kirk Gibson. On top of that, the fish get Mike Rabello, a catcher who turns 28 in January and has just 169 big league at bats, with all but one of them coming this past season. He hit .256 with 13 extra base hits but also struck out 41 times. On top of those 3, the Tigers are also reportedly sending 3 other minor league pitchers south, including a 23-year-old fireballer named Eulogio De La Cruz. He threw 6 2/3 innings for the big club last season.
Now for Detroit. They get one of the best hitters in the game in Cabrera, who's only 24, and the get Willis, who turns 26 in April and already has 68 career wins including a 22-win 2005 season. On the flip side, D-Train's hit totals and walk totals have gone up every year he's been in the league and he's coming off of what was easily his most disappointing season (10-15, 5.17 ERA). Cabrera's defense has been much-maligned as well. He had the 3rd worst fielding percentage out of all big league third baseman last year, and only Ryan Braun had more errors than his 23. His weight issues have never hurt his bat and he's reportedly on a new off-season conditioning program designed to keep him slim.
Now let's examine what this deal does for Detroit. Their opening day lineup would look something like this...
CF Curtis Granderson
2b Placido Polanco
RF Magglio Ordonez
3b Miguel Cabrera
DH Gary Sheffield
1b Carlos Guillen
LF Jacque Jones
C Ivan Rodriguez
SS Edgar Renteria
And their rotation...
RHP Justin Verlander
LHP Dontrelle Willis
RHP Jeremy Bonderman
LHP Kenny Rogers
LHP Nate Robertson
The Tigers finished with 88 wins in '07, but were still a full 8 games back of the Tribe. Next year, the Cenral could be nearly as top-heavy as the AL East.
The Marlins get Andrew Miller, a 6'6'', 22-year-old lefty who was the 6th overall pick of last year's draft. He's had some control issues at the big league level- 49 walks in 74 1/3 IP, but his upside is huge. He's definitely the centerpiece of this deal. Also included in the deal...Cameron Maybin a 20-year-old outfielder who was the 10th overall pick of the '05 draft. He got a cup of coffee in the big leagues last year and looked overmatched, punching out 21 times in 49 AB's. But he can hit, hit for power, and run. I read one website that said he was the most exciting position player to come through Detroit's farm system since Kirk Gibson. On top of that, the fish get Mike Rabello, a catcher who turns 28 in January and has just 169 big league at bats, with all but one of them coming this past season. He hit .256 with 13 extra base hits but also struck out 41 times. On top of those 3, the Tigers are also reportedly sending 3 other minor league pitchers south, including a 23-year-old fireballer named Eulogio De La Cruz. He threw 6 2/3 innings for the big club last season.
Now for Detroit. They get one of the best hitters in the game in Cabrera, who's only 24, and the get Willis, who turns 26 in April and already has 68 career wins including a 22-win 2005 season. On the flip side, D-Train's hit totals and walk totals have gone up every year he's been in the league and he's coming off of what was easily his most disappointing season (10-15, 5.17 ERA). Cabrera's defense has been much-maligned as well. He had the 3rd worst fielding percentage out of all big league third baseman last year, and only Ryan Braun had more errors than his 23. His weight issues have never hurt his bat and he's reportedly on a new off-season conditioning program designed to keep him slim.
Now let's examine what this deal does for Detroit. Their opening day lineup would look something like this...
CF Curtis Granderson
2b Placido Polanco
RF Magglio Ordonez
3b Miguel Cabrera
DH Gary Sheffield
1b Carlos Guillen
LF Jacque Jones
C Ivan Rodriguez
SS Edgar Renteria
And their rotation...
RHP Justin Verlander
LHP Dontrelle Willis
RHP Jeremy Bonderman
LHP Kenny Rogers
LHP Nate Robertson
The Tigers finished with 88 wins in '07, but were still a full 8 games back of the Tribe. Next year, the Cenral could be nearly as top-heavy as the AL East.
They Want Lester And More
Would you give up Jacoby Ellsbury and Jon Lester, plus a minor leaguer to land Johan Santana? Apparently, that's the dilemma facing Theo Epstein and the Boston Red Sox.
Initially, they told the Twins they could have either guy, plus mid-level prospects, but not both. Based on Boston's current situation, I'm inclined to think they should cave and give Minnesota what they want. And here's why.
As Curt Schilling wrote on his blog, a 1-2 punch of Santana and Beckett would give the Sox a feared, dynasty-worthy rotation for the rest of this decade and well into the next one. Johan turns 29 in March and Beckett turns 28 in May. These guys are in the midst of their best years right now. As for the short-term, you also have Schilling coming back for one more year, plus the ageless Tim Wakefield at the back end of the rotation. And in the long-term, Dice-K turns 28 next season and even if they give up Lester, they still have Clay Buchholz, who turns just 24 late next season (he's actually 8 months younger than Lester). In other words, their rotation could be Santana, Beckett, Dice-K, Buchholz until 2010, or beyond. There are exactly zero other teams whose pitching outlook would be as promising for the rest of the 00's.
That's not even factoring in the added bonus of keeping Santana away from the enemy- New York. Needless to say, this would be huge as well. And offensively, while there's no question Ellsbury provided Boston with an offensive spark late last season, let's not forget he only had 116 AB's in 2007. The Sox won a bunch of games without him and without a healthy Manny Ramirez or a productive Kevin Youkilis. With the emergence of Dustin Pedroia and a bounce-back year from Youk, the top of their order would be just fine and so would the middle.
A lot can happen in the days ahead and I wouldn't be at all surprised to see the Yankees flip-flop on their already-passed "Monday deadline" if there's still a chance they can land, arguably, the most coveted pitcher in baseball history. I just don't see how the Sox pass on this offer.
Initially, they told the Twins they could have either guy, plus mid-level prospects, but not both. Based on Boston's current situation, I'm inclined to think they should cave and give Minnesota what they want. And here's why.
As Curt Schilling wrote on his blog, a 1-2 punch of Santana and Beckett would give the Sox a feared, dynasty-worthy rotation for the rest of this decade and well into the next one. Johan turns 29 in March and Beckett turns 28 in May. These guys are in the midst of their best years right now. As for the short-term, you also have Schilling coming back for one more year, plus the ageless Tim Wakefield at the back end of the rotation. And in the long-term, Dice-K turns 28 next season and even if they give up Lester, they still have Clay Buchholz, who turns just 24 late next season (he's actually 8 months younger than Lester). In other words, their rotation could be Santana, Beckett, Dice-K, Buchholz until 2010, or beyond. There are exactly zero other teams whose pitching outlook would be as promising for the rest of the 00's.
That's not even factoring in the added bonus of keeping Santana away from the enemy- New York. Needless to say, this would be huge as well. And offensively, while there's no question Ellsbury provided Boston with an offensive spark late last season, let's not forget he only had 116 AB's in 2007. The Sox won a bunch of games without him and without a healthy Manny Ramirez or a productive Kevin Youkilis. With the emergence of Dustin Pedroia and a bounce-back year from Youk, the top of their order would be just fine and so would the middle.
A lot can happen in the days ahead and I wouldn't be at all surprised to see the Yankees flip-flop on their already-passed "Monday deadline" if there's still a chance they can land, arguably, the most coveted pitcher in baseball history. I just don't see how the Sox pass on this offer.
Labels:
boston red sox,
jacoby ellsbury,
johan santana,
jon lester
Monday, December 3, 2007
They're Bringin' Andy Back (Yea)!
That's what Yankee fans are likely saying after hearing the news that one of their best pitchers from 2007 and their only effective playoff hurler, Andy Pettitte, will be back in 2008.
This does change my views of what a Johan Santana trade would potentially do for the Bombers' staff. For good reason, a rotation of Santana, Wang, Pettitte, Mussina, and Kennedy sounds a lot more stable than one that does not include the 35-year-old, 201 game winner.
Unfortunately Pettitte and the others (Santana included or not) are still going to have to pitch with that defense.
This does change my views of what a Johan Santana trade would potentially do for the Bombers' staff. For good reason, a rotation of Santana, Wang, Pettitte, Mussina, and Kennedy sounds a lot more stable than one that does not include the 35-year-old, 201 game winner.
Unfortunately Pettitte and the others (Santana included or not) are still going to have to pitch with that defense.
Sunday, December 2, 2007
The $antana $weepstakes Part II
The gauntlet has been thrown down and the Red Sox have answered, now saying they will include speedster Jacoby Ellsbury in a deal for Johan Santana. But interestingly, the Sox are not willing to deal Ellsbury and pitcher Jon Lester in the same trade. The Sox had previously put Lester and Coco Crisp in a package offer that also included a minor leaguer, but understandably, the Twins want Ellsbury. Coupled with the newly-acquired Delmon Young, Ellsbury would give Minnesota a really talented, really young outfield.
Now, the question becomes, whose offer is better? Is it New York's with Phil Hughes, Melky Cabrera, and others? Is it Boston's with Ellsbury, a pitcher, and others? Or are they better off seeing what else is out there?
Personally, I think there are advantages and disadvantages to both deals. If the Twins go with New York's offer, they can potentially replace one ace with another, and pick up a solid defensive outfielder too, shifting Young to right. But if they go with Boston's, they will have an offense that's arguably the best in the AL Central with Ellsbury setting the table for the likes of Mauer, Morneau, Cuddyer and Young. The only downside is, they will have traded their two best starting pitchers to do it and without getting much in big-league-ready-pitching in return.
The one thing I don't see happening is Minnesota holding onto Santana, because once the season starts, I doubt they'll get many offers with this much young talent.
Now, the question becomes, whose offer is better? Is it New York's with Phil Hughes, Melky Cabrera, and others? Is it Boston's with Ellsbury, a pitcher, and others? Or are they better off seeing what else is out there?
Personally, I think there are advantages and disadvantages to both deals. If the Twins go with New York's offer, they can potentially replace one ace with another, and pick up a solid defensive outfielder too, shifting Young to right. But if they go with Boston's, they will have an offense that's arguably the best in the AL Central with Ellsbury setting the table for the likes of Mauer, Morneau, Cuddyer and Young. The only downside is, they will have traded their two best starting pitchers to do it and without getting much in big-league-ready-pitching in return.
The one thing I don't see happening is Minnesota holding onto Santana, because once the season starts, I doubt they'll get many offers with this much young talent.
Saturday, December 1, 2007
The $antana $weepstakes
The New York Yankees are prepared to offer the Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Phil Hughes, outfielder Melky Cabrera, and a second tier prospect for the right to then sign Johan Santana for something in the neighborhood of 6 years, $150 million.
First, I have to wonder how New York can afford to do this financially after re-upping with A-Rod for as much as $305 million over 10 years, re-signing Posada for $52.4 million over 4, and Rivera for $45 million over 3 years. Let's not forget, this team also has Giambi, Jeter, Abreu, Damon, Matsui, and Mussina signed to very lucrative deals as well. Unless the Yanks are minting their own money in the home team dugout, conventional wisdom would tell you the well has to run dry at some point, right?
Next, money aside, I have to wonder if Santana would really make the Yankees that much better of a team, i.e. a team that can beat the Boston Red Sox and go to the World Series. If they were to send Hughes and Cabrera to Minnesota, and assuming Clemens and Pettitte retire, New York's starting rotation would still be very front-heavy. Santana and Wang would be as good a 1-2 punch as anybody, although in the playoffs, the Sox would arguably still have the upper hand with Beckett and Schilling. And after their first two starters, New York would be in basically the same situation they were in last year. Who's their number 3? Ian Kennedy? Yes, he's good and he's young, but he's thrown 19 innings in his big league career. There's simply no way of knowing how he'll hold up over 30+ starts. Is Mike Mussina their number 4? He turns 39 in a week and people hit .342 off him in the second half. Again, what will he be good for over 30 starts? And then who's the number 5? Carl Pavano? Jeff Karstens? Kei Igawa? Matt DeSalvo? Chase Wright? Like Steve Perry once sang, the list goes on and on and on and on. The only difference is, I have stopped believing.
All that's not taking into consideration the defensive hit New York would take by losing Cabrera in center and having to play Johnny Damon there. Unless they signed Aaron Rowand or Andruw Jones (neither of whom would be cheap) their starting outfield would feature a trio of 34-year-olds by the All-Star Break with Matsui in left, JD in center and Abreu in right. Add to that a catcher who allowed an AL-worst 102 steals, a very average left side of the infield in Jeter and A-Rod and a gigantic question mark at first and this isn't exactly a contact pitcher's dream.
Personally, I think they'd be better served going after somebody like Dan Haren. He won't cost you as much in prospects or cash and all the sudden, you have a deeper pitching staff and a better defensive team. The Red Sox are good because they're holding onto their young talent- the same reason why the Yanks were good in mid-to-late 90's. I know there's a lot of pressure on them to one-up Boston in the Santana Sweepstakes, but there's a pretty good chance he won't be worth what New York will have to pay to get him...not like that's stopped them before.
First, I have to wonder how New York can afford to do this financially after re-upping with A-Rod for as much as $305 million over 10 years, re-signing Posada for $52.4 million over 4, and Rivera for $45 million over 3 years. Let's not forget, this team also has Giambi, Jeter, Abreu, Damon, Matsui, and Mussina signed to very lucrative deals as well. Unless the Yanks are minting their own money in the home team dugout, conventional wisdom would tell you the well has to run dry at some point, right?
Next, money aside, I have to wonder if Santana would really make the Yankees that much better of a team, i.e. a team that can beat the Boston Red Sox and go to the World Series. If they were to send Hughes and Cabrera to Minnesota, and assuming Clemens and Pettitte retire, New York's starting rotation would still be very front-heavy. Santana and Wang would be as good a 1-2 punch as anybody, although in the playoffs, the Sox would arguably still have the upper hand with Beckett and Schilling. And after their first two starters, New York would be in basically the same situation they were in last year. Who's their number 3? Ian Kennedy? Yes, he's good and he's young, but he's thrown 19 innings in his big league career. There's simply no way of knowing how he'll hold up over 30+ starts. Is Mike Mussina their number 4? He turns 39 in a week and people hit .342 off him in the second half. Again, what will he be good for over 30 starts? And then who's the number 5? Carl Pavano? Jeff Karstens? Kei Igawa? Matt DeSalvo? Chase Wright? Like Steve Perry once sang, the list goes on and on and on and on. The only difference is, I have stopped believing.
All that's not taking into consideration the defensive hit New York would take by losing Cabrera in center and having to play Johnny Damon there. Unless they signed Aaron Rowand or Andruw Jones (neither of whom would be cheap) their starting outfield would feature a trio of 34-year-olds by the All-Star Break with Matsui in left, JD in center and Abreu in right. Add to that a catcher who allowed an AL-worst 102 steals, a very average left side of the infield in Jeter and A-Rod and a gigantic question mark at first and this isn't exactly a contact pitcher's dream.
Personally, I think they'd be better served going after somebody like Dan Haren. He won't cost you as much in prospects or cash and all the sudden, you have a deeper pitching staff and a better defensive team. The Red Sox are good because they're holding onto their young talent- the same reason why the Yanks were good in mid-to-late 90's. I know there's a lot of pressure on them to one-up Boston in the Santana Sweepstakes, but there's a pretty good chance he won't be worth what New York will have to pay to get him...not like that's stopped them before.
Labels:
johan santana,
new york yankees,
offseason,
trade rumors
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