Lost In Translation?

Kosuke Fukudome is slated to become the latest Japanese position player to cross the Pacific and play in the majors next season. He just signed a 4-year, $48 million dollar deal with the Chicago Cubs, where he'll be the starting rightfielder and provide, the Cubs hope, some left-handed pop and protection for righty sluggers Alfonso Soriano, Derrick Lee, and Aramis Ramirez.

His 2007 season was shortened due to elbow surgery but back in 2006 he was the league MVP, hitting .351 with 31 homeruns and 104 RBI. He throws right-handed, turns 31 in late April, and at 5-11, 187, he's not a particularly big fellow.

I've heard Fukudome compared to J.D Drew on more than one occasion. Hopefully for Cub fans, those comparisons are based on talent and ceiling, not passion for the game or durability.

Like with most far east imports, it will be interesting to see how Fukudome's numbers translate against big league pitching over the course of a 162-game season. Ichiro has most certainly been as good as advertised, although it's interesting to point out that after 7 full seasons in the US, his batting average, on base percentage, slugging percentage, homerun, RBI and walk totals are all lower than his Japanese numbers after 7 full seasons. He's still a Gold Glover, perennial All-Star, and Hall of Famer in the states, you just won't see him flirt with a 1.000 OPS here like he did in Japan.

Hideki Matsui is probably the second-best of the recent imports, and even he hasn't hit for the same power he did in Japan. He averaged a homerun every 13.8 at-bats for the Yomiuri Giants between 1994 and 2002. With the New York Yankees, he goes yard every 24.8 at-bats. His career OPS is also about 140 points lower in the US than it was in Japan although he has cut down on his strikeouts in the Bronx (one every 7 AB's compared to one every 4.9 in Japan). Again, Matsui is a fine player, a tough out, and by all accounts, a good teammate. He's just not an elite slugger here. He's never hit 32 homeruns in a season for New York even though he averaged 37 a year for 9 seasons with Yomiuri.

Then there's the other Matsui- Kazuo. According to an article on ESPN.com dated December 7, 2003, Matsui "is a rare talent with power, speed, and great defense up the middle." It goes on to say how he might be faster than Ichiro, how the Mets are now going to shift Jose Reyes to second base so Kaz can play short, and how he was coming off a .305/33/84 season with Seibu. Fast forward 4 years and 5 days later, and "Little Matsui" is now on his 3rd team, has 17 homeruns, 131 RBI, and a .712 OPS in 1380 career at-bats. In his one season playing short, he made 23 errors and is now a full-time second baseman, although he's never played 115 games in a season. Some baseball fans might not have realized he was still around until his grand slam against the Phillies in Game 2 of the NLDS. To his credit though, he did have a nice season as Colorado's second baseman in 2007 (.288, 84 runs, 32 steals, and 4 errors in 104 games) and parlayed that into a 3-year, $16.5 million dollar deal with Houston.

My point is this. Don't expect Fukudome to hit .350 next season. Don't expect him to hit 30 homeruns. And don't expect him to drive in 100...not in his first season anyway. Realistically, the Cubs got him to generate a little buzz, perhaps bring in some Japanese advertising dollars, and most importantly to replace Jacque Jones, who's now with Detroit. Last year, JJ hit .285 with 33 doubles, 5 homeruns, and 66 RBI in 453 at-bats. My guess is, Fukudome finishes a lot closer to those numbers than he does to his 2006 numbers in Japan.