About Last Night

Just a few observations about the first three playoff games...

First, in the Rockies/Phillies game, I was definitely shocked at a couple of things, most notably the fact that it was a pitchers' duel. These are two of the most offense-heavy, pitching-light clubs still playing, yet the final was 4-2. Equally shocking was Chase Utley's forgettable October debut...0-4 with 4 K's. I was also surprised to learn CY had another 0-4, 4 K game June 8th of this year at Kansas City. Weird. And I was just as "unshocked" to see Tom Gordon give up a big hit in a big spot (an 8th inning Matt Holliday homerun). The Rockies' bullpen is superior to Philly's and it may cost them this series.

Next, in the Red Sox/LA game, I think lots of people expected Beckett to be on, so that's not a huge surprise to me. After all, this guy was World Series MVP in '03 for the Marlins. That's not to say that everyone was expecting a 4-hit shutout by any means, but Beckett acted like he's been there before, because he has. No, what came as the biggest surprise to me, and what should be of huge comfort to Red Sox fans, was how good Kevin Youkilis looked at the plate last night. Remember, this is a guy who took a Wang fastball off his forearm in mid-September and played sparingly down the stretch. Plus, he had a simply miserable second half, going .238/7/39 with more strikeouts than walks after the break. But in Game 1, Youk went 2-4 with a bomb and 2 runs scored. If he is back to his old self hitting in front of Papi and Manny, the Sox, not the Yankees, may have the best offense in the postseason.

And finally in the D-Backs/Cubs game, Brandon Webb dominated Cubs' hitters, as expected. But what I did find a bit odd was how badly the top of the Chicago order struggled. Soriano, Jones, Lee, Ramirez, and Floyd combined to go 1-20 with a run scored, a walk, and 8 K's. Eeh.

Tonight, it's Game 2 of Rocks/Phils, and D-Backs/Cubs, while the Indians/Yankees series gets underway. Should be another good night!

It's Hardware Time, Part 5: Comeback Player Of The Year

I wish I had known they were going to announce these so soon because otherwise I would have posted about them sooner, but let's just say I don't disagree with Carlos Pena and Dmitri Young as the Comeback Players of the Year.

As I've said before, Pena is a simply amazing story. He bested his previous single-season homerun total by 19 this year and finally looks like the player he was supposed to be 5 years ago. Heck, if it wasn't for A-Rod, he probably would have led the league in homeruns (46). Not bad for a guy who wasn't even guaranteed a spot on the lowly Devil Rays in spring training.

Young is a good story too. He's had some off-field problems and also wasn't guaranteed anything in spring training. But he hit and hit and hit and ended up being Washington's sole All-Star representative in San Francisco this year. He also ended up being tied for 10th in the NL in average (.320).

What's interesting for fantasy players next year is that I don't imagine Young will be all-that-hot of a commodity on draft day, whereas Pena could be the the first AL first baseman off the board. Obviously the NL is teeming with talent there (Pujols, Howard, Fielder, Teixeira, Berkman, Lee) but would you take Pena over somebody like Justin Morneau or Paul Konerko? If you think he's going to come anywhere close to duplicating his 2007 season, you probably should. Then again, that's a big "if."

It's Hardware Time, Part 4: Manager Of The Year

American League

I don't think there 's be any question the AL Manager of the Year, regardless of how the Yankees fare in the playoffs, should be Joe Torre. A little over four months ago, New York was 21-29, 14.5 games back of Boston in the East, 9 games back of Detroit for the Wild Card, and people were calling for Torre's job. All they did was go 73-39 in their last 112 games, finishing just 2 back of Red Sox in the East, and finishing with a comfortable 6 game cushion for the Wild Card.

Torre didn't panic. He didn't convert Mariano Rivera into a starter, didn't bench Bobby Abreu, and didn't have any on-field, or locker-room explosions. A consummate class act, Torre has weathered the criticism, the expectations, and the pressure with grace seldom seen.

Eric Wedge also had a wonderful year at the helm for Cleveland, improving the team by 18 games from last season. But comparing the pressure of managing in Cleveland to the pressure of managing in New York is like saying it's just as hard to sink an 8-foot putt on the 18th hole at your local country club as it is to do it in the final round of the British Open.

Congrats Joe.

National League

This is tough, considering there are so many qualified managers for this honor. But with all due respect to Clint Hurdle in Colorado and Charlie Manuel in Philadelphia, I'm going to go with Lou Piniella for much the same reason as I went with Joe Torre. Piniella overcame a dreadful start and tremendous adversity, all in the face of enormous expectations.

From the moment he was introduced as the new manager of the Cubs, the team and its loyal-to-a-fault fans were hoping, praying, and dare I say, expecting to win. Let's not forget the $300 million the club spent in the offseason acquiring Alfonso Soriano, Ted Lilly, Jason Marquis, Mark DeRosa, Cliff Floyd, and re-signing Carlos Zambrano and Aramis Ramirez.

Early on, things were not all champagne and caviar on the south side of the windy city. Far from it. In fact, on June 2, the Cubbies were a dismal 22-31, ahead of only Cincinnati in the Central. Much like Torre and the Yankees, Sweet Lou finished the season strong, going 63-46 in the team's final 109 games, proving that during the time he spent in Tampa Bay he really was a victim of his circumstances. They put the whole Carlos Zambrano/Michael Barrett thing behind them. They dealt with not having Mark Prior and Kerry Wood for most of the season (again), they lost Soriano for a month down the stretch, Ramirez for parts of June and August, and only had Floyd for 100 games.

I know Phillies and Rockies fans will cry foul at this, especially considering what remarkable comeback stories both teams staged so late in the season. The Phillies went 23-11 from August 26 on, and as everyone on the planet knows, overcame a 7-game deficit with 17 games to go. All Colorado did was win 14 of their last 15 including a 1-game playoff where they beat baseball's all-time saves leader in the 13th inning.

But the fact is, Manuel and Hurdle weren't under the gun the way Piniella was going into the season, and they weren't under the gun the way he was all season long. All three managers delivered this season, but none of them more than Piniella.

It's Hardware Time, Part 3: Rookie Of The Year

American League

Unlike in the National League where there are two fantastic candidates, there really isn't a sexy pick for ROY in the AL. Dice-K was fairly disappointing given all the hype (4.40 ERA, 15-12), Hideki Okajima struggled mightily down the stretch (4.56 post-All-Star ERA), Delmon Young's numbers were decent but not eye-popping (.288, 13, 93) and while Alex Gordon showed some promise, he's not the next A-Rod, yet (.247, 15, 14 steals).

So where does that leave us? Well it leaves us with a scrappy middle infielder who played terrific defense and was a tough out all season long- Dustin Pedroia.

He hit .181 in April but the signs were there that this guy could play. In that otherwise terrible month, he had 10 walks and just 6 K's. For the season, he finished with 47 free passes and 42 wiffs to go along with a .317 average (10th in the AL), .380 OBP and 39 doubles (14th in the AL).

Then there's his defense, which was another asset for the Sox this regular season. His 6 errors were 4th fewest in the league among second baseman, as was his .990 fielding percentage. In other words, this guy can play ball. He's not going to be a fantasy stud by any means, but almost every team in the league would love a second baseman who will hit .300, put the ball in play, have gap power, and play good D. That's exactly what Pedroia does.

National League

In the last 20 years, this league has produced Rookie of the Year flops like Jason Jennings, Scott Williamson, Todd Hollandsworth, and Jerome Walton. That's not the problem this year. This year, there are two guys who are both really good, should both play for a long time and both deserve the award- Ryan Braun and Troy Tulowitzki.

Braun is already drawing comparisons to Albert Pujols, and with good reason. In his 2001 debut, Fat Albert went .329/37/130 in 161 games. This year in 113 games, Braun went .324/34/97, good for 5th in the league in homeruns, and 8th in average. Extrapolate that out over 162 games and you're looking at a .324/49/140 season with 22 steals. Remind you of a certain AL MVP candidate, 13 years into his career?

Braun's splits are splendid too. He hit .328 with 60 RBI in 128 AB's with men in scoring position, and had a 1.066 OPS with men in scoring position and 2 outs. Close and late he also hit .300 and in September when the Brewers were trying to win a pennant, he went .308/9/29.

The knock against Braun is his defense. He was the worst fielding third baseman in the NL, and the only one with a sub-.900 fielding percentage. His 26 errors led the league. And again, that was in a fraction of the season. Don't be surprised if he's a corner outfielder in '08.

Then there's Tulowitzki. At this point in his career, he is probably more of a complete player than Braun, even though his offensive ceiling isn't nearly as high. Troy finished up at .291/24/99 with 104 runs scored. He also seemed to improve as the season went on, getting 37 of his 62 extra base hits in the second half, and flirting with .300. His "pressure splits" are not as good as Braun's though, nor was his September (.276/6/26).

But Braun's biggest weakness may be Tulowitzki's biggest strength- defense. He should win the NL Gold Glove after leading all major league shortstops with a .987 fielding percentage and turning 114 double plays. His 11 errors were second best at the position behind Omar Vizquel. And his range factor (which is putouts plus assists divided by innings) was also number one in baseball among shortstops.

So if Braun's best case scenario is Albert Pujols, then Tulowitzki's may be a better offensive version of Cal Ripken Jr, minus the streak. The Iron Man is already in the Hall, and Pujols is headed there, so you can't go wrong either way. But I give the nod to Braun here. His season was just too superior offensively to snub. I wouldn't hate it if they split the award either.

A Brave New World

Andruw Jones won't be back with Atlanta in 2008, instantly making him one of the biggest names in the free agent market this winter. He's a Scott Boras guy and is looking for a deal in the 5-year, $100 million range. If that's what a .222 hitter is worth these days, I don't want to think what Alex Rodriguez will earn if he leaves New York.

It's Hardware Time, Part 2: Cy Young

American League

There are 5 legitimate candidates for this award and they're all on playoff teams...Josh Beckett, Fausto Carmona, Kelvim Escobar, John Lackey, and C.C. Sabathia. They finished 1st, 2nd, 6th, 2nd, and 2nd respectively in wins. And they finished 6th, 2nd, 7th, 1st, and 5th in ERA. But for me, the numbers behind the numbers help separate this 5-pack of aces.

Yes, Beckett was the only 20-game winner in baseball, he plays for a big market team, and finished top-10 in strikeouts and ERA. This is usually a sure-fire formula for the award, but this year, I really do think at least one pitcher had a better year.

Consider this. Five of Beckett's 20 wins came in the following outings:

April 4 - 5 IP, 1 ER at Kansas City
April 21 - 6.2 IP, 4 ER against New York
July 5 - 6 IP, 3 ER against Tampa Bay
July 20 - 6 IP, 3 ER against Chicago
August 24 - 5.2 IP, 3 ER at Chicago

Now I realize he had a few tough losses/no decisions along the way (I count 3 to be exact) but for the most part, when he pitched moderately well, he won, and when he didn't, he lost. His win total was also buoyed by a run support (6.59) that was 4th best in the AL, and second highest among non-Yankee starters. In other words, he probably shouldn't have won 20 games, which means we shouldn't be distracted by that statistic. And I've long been a believer that "wins" does not measure a pitcher's Cy Young qualifications nearly as well as quality start percentage, opponents batting average against, innings pitched, WHIP, and strikeouts. So with the field leveled, let's look at those other numbers.

Beckett and Sabathia were the top dogs of the 5 in WHIP (1.14). Carmona and Lackey's were slightly higher (1.21), and Escobar was last in the group at 1.27. Sabathia also led the group in strikeouts, notching 209 to Beckett's 194, Lackey's 179, Escobar's 160, and Carmona's 137. On top of that, he led baseball with 241 innings pitched. Lackey's the only other one in the group to top 220. Beckett had the lowest batting average against but not by much. He held hitters to a .245 clip, compared to .248 for Escobar and Carmona, .254 for Lackey, and .259 for Sabathia. And in terms of quality starts, Carmona (81%), edges his teammate (74%). Lackey (73%), along with Escobar and Beckett (67%) round out the top 5.

Back to Sabathia now. Whereas Beckett won a few questionable outings, Sabathia failed to win each of these outings:

April 20 - 7 IP, 2 ER at Tampa Bay
June 10 - 9 IP, 0 ER at Cincinnati
June 24 - 7 IP, 1 ER versus Boston
June 29 - 7 IP, 1 ER versus Minnesota
August 8 - 7 IP, 2 ER at Chicago
August 14 - 7 IP, 2 ER versus Detroit
August 19 - 8 IP, 2 ER at Tampa Bay
August 24 - 8 IP, 2 ER at Kansas City

Like Beckett, he also won a few he probably shouldn't have (I count 4). But balancing that out with the 8 starts above that he didn't win leads you to the conclusion that he easily could have won 22 or 23 this season with secondary numbers superior to Beckett's. That is why he should win the award. But I bet the voters get this one wrong. For further proof, I submit to you the average 2007 start for each of the 5 guys in the running:

Beckett - 6.7 IP, 6.3 H, 2.4 ER, 1.3 BB, 6.5 Ks
Carmona - 6.7 IP, 6.2 H, 2.3 ER, 1.9 BB, 4.3 K's
Escobar - 6.5 IP, 6.1 H, 2.5 ER, 2.2 BB, 5.3 K's
Lackey - 6.8 IP, 6.6 H, 2.3 ER, 1.6 BB, 5.4 K's
Sabathia - 7.1 IP, 7.0 H, 2.5 ER, 1.1 BB, 6.1 K's

Here's my top 5.

1. C.C. Sabathia
2. Josh Beckett
3. John Lackey
4. Fausto Carmona
5. Kelvim Escobar

National League
This one's easy. Even with Jake Peavy's disappointing performance last night against the Rockies, he still led the league in wins, ERA, strikeouts, and WHIP, while finishing 2nd in winning percentage, and 4th in innings pitched.

Brandon Webb was the Magglio Ordonez of NL pitchers. He picked a bad year to have a great year, going 18-10 with a 3.01 ERA, and 194 K's and was the only pitcher to throw more innings than Peavy (236.1). He finished second in the league in wins and ERA, 4th in K's, 7th in WHIP, and actually led the NL in complete games (4).

But unfortunately for BW, it doesn't matter that Peavy and the Pads are left to watch October baseball at home. His was the superior year.

Here's my top 5.

1. Jake Peavy
2. Brandon Webb
3. John Smoltz (3.11 ERA, 197 K's, 1.18 WHIP)
4. Cole Hamels (3.39 ERA, 177 K's, 1.12 WHIP, opponents hit .205 in second half)
5. Brad Penny (3.03 ERA, 79% of starts were quality, went 16-4)

Trevor's Off, Man...But Life Goes On

Understandably disappointed San Diego Padres fans are less than thrilled with closer Trevor Hoffman this morning. A sure-fire Hall of Famer and the game's all-time career saves leader (524) blew back-to-back chances Sunday afternoon and Monday night. Had he converted one or the other, the Pads, not the Rockies, would be playing ball in Philadelphia tonight.

Unfortunately, closers (especially the elite ones) are immortalized for their failures rather than their successes. Case in point, when you think of Dennis Eckersley, do you think of him recording the final out of the '89 World Series? Do you think of his unparalleled dominance in the late 80's and early 90's when he was an MVP and Cy Young Award winner? Or do you think of him serving up the walk-off homerun to Kirk Gibson in '88 against the Dodgers?

When you think of Mariano Rivera, do you think of his 8 career wins and 34 saves in the postseason? Or do you think of Luis Gonzalez blooping one over Derek Jeter's head in Game 7 in '01?

Closers are like kickers in the NFL. When they do their job, the common reaction from fans who really don't know any better is, "good, it's what they're supposed to do!" But when they don't, people get irate, regardless of the pressure involved in the situation.

"How hard is it to get 3 outs/kick a football 35 yards, straight?" these people ask.

The answer they don't want to hear is, "sometimes, it's pretty damn hard!"

The problem is, the Hoffmans, Eckersleys, Riveras, and Adam Vinatieris of the world usually make things look so easy because they're so good. So when they blow a game or miss a kick, people wonder what the problem is. Chances are, no regular person has ever had to perform even a simple task with so much (your team's season, or a championship) riding on the outcome, so they have no way of grasping the mental toughness required to not fold completely. Couple that with the fact that in do-or-die situations, the other team (also all professionals) is under an equal amount of pressure to make make you fail. Somebody has to lose in these situations. Unfortunately for Hoffman and the Fathers, it was them both times.

So all of that said, where should Hoffman rank in terms of the game's all-time greats? There's no denying his sustained success. He's played 15 years in the big leagues, recording 40+ saves a total of 9 times. I don't care what anybody says, that ain't easy. But in terms of postseason success he hasn't had nearly as much and this recent ineffective spell isn't helping people forget. He took the loss against St. Louis in the '96 LDS, and also lost game 3 of the '98 World Series against the Yankees. In his defense, he's only thrown 13 career postseason innings, but to his detriment, his ERA over that time is a run higher than his career average, and his 1.23 postseason WHIP is on the high side as well for a closer.

But he's hardly the first elite closer who hasn't been nails in October. The Eck's postseason ERA was an even 3.00 but his ERA in the World Series was 5.79. Lee Smith's postseason ERA was 8.44 in 4 appearances. Billy Wagner's is 8.71 in 11 appearances.

So San Diego fans can be upset at Hoffman, and baseball fans can think he's overrated. But the reality is, 2 bad games shouldn't nullify 14 excellent seasons any more than one bad start shouldn't cost Jake Peavy the Cy Young this year. Let's remember a 13-inning game that's decided by one run is never just one guy's fault.

How It (Probably Won't) Pan Out

Just a quick thought on the playoffs, now that the field is officially set.

In the ALDS, I like Cleveland. But quite frankly, Joe Borowski worries me. Yes, he had 45 saves, but more often than not, those saves were of the "nail-biting, first-and-third, two-out, up-a-run" variety rather than the "one-two-three" variety. His ERA was 5.07 and his WHIP was 1.43 and this Yankee team can hit. But there's no question their starting pitchers (Sabathia, Carmona, Westbrook) are superior to New York's (Wang, Pettitte, Clemens). For the record, 7 of 10 ESPN "experts" are picking the Tribe.

Also in the ALDS, I like LA to knock off Boston. Unlike Cleveland, there's no doubting LA's closer and there's not much evidence to suggest Boston has resolved its down-the-stretch bullpen troubles. I also think LA's starters (Lackey, Escobar, Weaver) are a slight step above Boston's (Beckett, Matsuzaka, Schilling). There's no question, however, that with Manny back in the lineup, the Sox have the advantage at the plate. I'm definitely out on a limb here, as 1 of 10 ESPN experts like the Halos.

In the senior circuit, I'm going to go with the team that had the NL's best record and arguably its best closer...Arizona. This team has a nice mix of youth, veterans, and guys in the primes of their careers. I don't see the Cubs beating Brandon Webb once, let alone twice. If he wins two games (or if the D-Backs win the two games he starts), all they have to do is steal one more and the series is theirs. There's no question the Cubs can rake (Soriano, Lee, Ramirez) but their pitching, in my opinion, isn't as strong (noticing as theme?).

And finally in the "wow, the Phillies and Rockies both made the playoffs" series, I don't know who to pick. It wouldn't surprise me one bit if each game was 13 to 11 because both teams' offenses are red hot, and after their number one starters, both teams' pitching staffs are shaky at best. But I'm going to give the edge to th Rockies simply on momentum and a slightly more stable bullpen (Hawkins, Fuentes and Corpas). Even after Sunday's game against the Nats, I just don't trust Tom Gordon and Brett Myers.

So if it ends up LA/Cleveland in the ALCS, I still think I'm going with the Tribe. Both teams have dynamic starting rotations but Sabathia, Carmona is slightly more daunting in my opinion. Plus, if the Tribe can best the Yankees offense, they most certainly should be able to tame the Angels with the likes of Sizemore, and an all-the-sudden-hot Travis Hafner.

And in the NLDS I think pitching and the D-Backs will prevail once again. Colorado will finally meet its match and it's lack of quality pitching depth (which won't matter against the Phillies) will matter against Arizona. Again, give the advantage to one of the best hurlers in the game, Brandon Webb. He might get 3 starts if the series goes 7 and he's fresh off a win against the Rocks over the weekend.

That would make the World Series Cleveland/Arizona...and once again, I'm picking Cleveland. They're better offensively, defensively, and have deeper pitching. Plus, if Borowski blows up in the first round, Rafael Betancourt is a very reliable backup option. Or they could just bring in Charlie Sheen.

It's Hardware Time, Part 1: MVP

While the regular season was still going on, I gave my picks for baseball's biggest awards at the end of each month (except for July, when I did it at the end of the first half). But now that the season is over and because a few races are, in my opinion, incredibly tight, I am going to devote a little more time and a few more words to each, by splitting them up into individual posts.

With that said, let's start with MVP.

American League
This is really a two-man race, although Yankee fans would disagree. But the reality is, Magglio Ordonez's season was simply too good to dismiss. First, let's look at their basic numbers. Maggs led the majors with a .363 batting average and 54 doubles. On top of that, he drove in 139 (2nd in the AL) and enjoyed a .439 OBP (also 2nd in the AL). You can add to that 117 runs, 28 homeruns, and three more strikeouts (79) than walks (76). Alex Rodriguez on the other hand led the majors in homeruns (54), RBI (156), runs (143), slugging (.645) and OPS (1.067), while swiping 24 bases and hitting .314.

Deeper digging reveals Ordonez hit .423 with 105 RBI in 189 AB's with runners in scoring position, but when the pressure increased, his numbers returned to Earth. With men on and 2 out his average dipped to .309, and with 2 out and men in scoring position it was just .299. Even less impressive- his .247 average and .333 OBP late and close.

A-Rod's key splits are much more consistent. With men in scoring position he hit .330 with 97 RBI in 176 AB's. With men on and two outs he hit .326 with an astonishing 21 homeruns in just 141 AB's. And late and close he hit .357 with a .439 OBP. Interestingly, only 18 of his 54 homeruns were solo. Basically he was always clutch.

That's why A-Rod is my choice and should be everyone else's. On the surface, his overall numbers are astounding, posting the first-ever 50-150-20 season in baseball history. But unlike in years past when people accused him of hitting his homeruns when it was already 8-0 Yankees, this year, he's come up huge when it mattered most. For good measure, here's my top 5.

1. Alex Rodriguez
2. Magglio Ordonez
3. David Ortiz (led majors in walks, led AL in XBH, hit .332 with 35 homeruns)
4. Carlos Pena (46 HR, 121 RBI, 3rd in AL in OPS, who cares if he's on Tampa?)
5. Vladimir Guerrero (3rd in AL in RBI, hit .324, more walks than strikeouts)

National League
A significantly tougher choice to say the least, as there remain at least 5 deserving players for this award. All things being equal, Prince Fielder, Matt Holliday, Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins, and David Wright could each stake legitimate claim to this award.

Fielder led the NL in homeruns (50), finished 2nd in OPS (1.013), and third in XBH (87) and RBI (119). Holliday won the batting title (.340), led the majors in XBH (91), finished 2nd in RBI (135), tied for 3rd in runs (119), and in OPS (1.011). Howard led the NL in RBI (136), finished 2nd in homeruns (47), and 4th in walks (107). Rollins led the league in runs (139), finished 2nd in XBH (88), 5th in steals (41) and hit 30 homeruns. And Wright finished 4th in hits (196) and OBP (.416), 5th in runs (113), 7th in average (.325), and like Rollins, went 30-30 (30-34 to be exact).

Before I proceed, I want to make a brief point. Unlike some voters, I personally don't think missing the playoffs should automatically disqualify someone from winning the NL MVP this year. Obviously some of the players on this list will be playing in October (Holliday perhaps, Howard, Rollins) while some will have come up just short (Fielder, Holliday perhaps, Wright). Clearly the guys who did help their teams get in have helped their MVP causes significantly, but just because Fielder and Wright's teams didn't make it, doesn't mean they didn't help their teams get as close as they did. That said, let's look a little deeper.

Fielder had a great September (.333, 11, 22), thrived close and late (.321, 6 HR), but didn't always deliver with men on (.270 with men in scoring position, .220 with 2 out and men in scoring position). Still his power numbers speak for themselves. Ironically, "Fielder" is not a good one. He led all big league first basemen in errors with 14.

Holliday also had a terrific September (.368, 12, 30), an even better final week of the season (.444, .545 OBP, 5 runs, 4 RBI), was good but not great close and late (.287, 7, 18), hit .330 with men in scoring position and .329 with the same situation but two outs.

Howard's September batting average wasn't spectacular (.260), but his other numbers were (11, 26, 25 walks, .413 OBP). And few hitters had a better final week of the season (.381, 5, 11, 1.575 OPS). Close and late, he reached base 42% of the time, even though he only hit .257. He was good with men in scoring position (.282, 18, 91), and excellent in the same situation with two outs (.377, 12, 52). Of his 47 homeruns, 30 came with men on base, although he did set a new single-season strikeout record (199) and fanned 104 times in 278 AB's with men on. And if it wasn't for Prince, Howard's 12 botches at first would have been a league-high.

Interestingly, Phillies fans were chanting M-V-P every time Rollins came to the plate yesterday, not Howard. But J-Roll's splits suggest the fans may have gotten it wrong. He hit .272 with men in scoring position, .239 with men in scoring position and 2 outs, and .255 close and late. He did have a great September (.298, 6, 18, 14 steals) and a really fine final week (.375, 7 runs, 4 steals). The bottom line is, he was the catalyst for the comeback kids and like Curtis Granderson went 20-20-20-20 in doubles, triples, homeruns, and steals. He actually went 38-20-30-41, while playing outstanding defense at short.

Finally, Wright owns the distinction of being the only 30-30 guy in the big leagues who also hit over .300, scored 100 runs, and drove in 100. He hit .352 in September, .400 the final week, and .364 in the second half. He hit .310 with men in scoring position (but just .200 in the same situation with 2 outs), and was a .346 hitter close and late. He will carry a 17-game hitting into the 2008 season and was also above average defensively at third in terms of range, fielding percentage, and double plays.

So where does that leave us, besides, with 5 really well-qualified candidates? Well, in my opinion, there is one guy who stands slightly above the rest of this terrific group, and that guy is Matt Holliday. Aside from being a very good defensive outfielder (7 assists, a .990 fielding percentage), he's hitting .456, 5, 15, with 15 runs during the Rockies' current 13-1 stretch. And for me, the fact that this guy won a batting title and led the majors in extra base hits really speaks to his offensive prowess.

Truthfully, you can't go wrong with any of these 5 guys in any order. With that said, here's my top 5.

1. Matt Holliday
2. Jimmy Rollins
3. David Wright
4. Prince Fielder
5. Ryan Howard

Cy Young, Rookie of the Year, Manager of the Year, and Comeback Player of the Year still to come.

There's More Than One In The Works

While much has, and no doubt will continue to be made of the New York Mets' historically God-awful collapse (missing the playoffs after being 7 games up with 17 to go) let's not forget they were not the only playoff-bound team crawling on all fours to baseball's finish line. At 7:37 tonight, the San Diego Padres have the opportunity to play "New York Mets" to the Colorado Rockies' Philadelphia Phillies.

Lest we forget on September 20, the Fathers had a 4.5 game lead over Colorado in the Wild Card with just 10 games to go. They went 4-6, while the Rocks went 8-1. Or if you prefer, take it back to September 15, where the Padres were up 4.5 on Colorado with 15 to play. San Diego went a respectable 9-6 after that, while the Rockies played unthinkable .929 baseball, going 13-1.

In that regard, today's one-game playoff seems to be more about Colorado's rocket-propelled season's ending than the Padres' September shortcomings. But consider this. The Mets ran a 43-year-old out to the mound who is clearly in the twilight of a Hall of Fame career, and the opposing team thumped him. That single event, while precipitated by a series of unimaginable occurrences, is not so hard to fathom. The situation with San Diego is different. They have the NL's clear-cut Cy Young winner going tonight. He won pitching's triple crown. Heck, Jake Peavy allowed just one more base runner (12) than he had strikeouts (11) in 2 starts against Colorado this year.

But if the Rockies win...

If the Padres and Peavy are sent packing...

It might be almost as bad as what the Mets did.

Almost.