Thursday, June 28, 2007

How-weird

Last night, Ryan Howard became the fastest player in history to hit reach the 100 homerun mark, taking just 325 games to do it. Ralph Kiner had held the old record of 385 games, for 59 years (he hit 369 total homeruns).

For his career, Howard is now averaging a remarkable 50 homers every 162 games, but that doesn't mean Aaron, Bonds, Ruth, A-Rod, or anybody else should be worried. Here's why. While he's the fastest to get to 100, he's by no means the youngest to reach 100, and when you talk about all time-taters, that's a much more important number.

Howard turns 28 in November. That's not young, especially when you consider the fact that Albert Pujols turns 28 in January and already has 266 homeruns. Miguel Cabrera, who is by no means as prolific a homerun hitter as Howard, doesn't turn 28 until April 18, 2011! He's already sitting on 121 career dingers.

Ken Griffey Jr. was 23 when he hit his 100th back in 1993. So was Alex Rodriguez when he hit his 100th in 1998. Believe it or not, Junior and A-Rod rank eighth and fourth respectively on the all-time "youngest to 100" list. If you're curious, Mel Ott is number one. He hit his 100th when he was 22 years, 132 days old and ended up with 511 for his career. Ott is also the fastest to 200 (25 years, 144 days) but it gets interesting after that. A-Rod is far and away the youngest ever to get to 300 (27 years, 249 days), and 400 (29 years, 316 days). And if he can hit 8 more before June 28, 2008 (exactly one year from today) he'll also be the fastest to 500. At that point, people can begin to talk seriously about 800.

Now back to Howard. Assuming he stays healthy, and assuming he's, somehow, able to keep up the absurd "50 in every 162" pace he's currently on, he will hit another 26 this year, giving him 44 for the year and 126 for his career. After that, he would need another seven and a half seasons at 50 per to reach 500. If all that happens, he would hit his 500th at about this time, in the year 2015, at about age 35 and a half. A-Rod, on the other hand, can play in 27 more games before turning 32 and he's sitting on 492 career homeruns. This means A-Rod will likely reach the 500 mark at an age three and a half years younger than Howard would, assuming Howard can sustain his torrid pace for 8 more seasons.

That, friends, is some prolific pop from the man some Yankee fans still love to hate.

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