Wednesday, August 15, 2007

Back, Back, Back...Braun!

Someone forgot to tell the middle of Milwaukee's line-up about this year's apparent power outage throughout baseball because Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder are now the most dangerous right-left combo in the game (yes, even better than Manny and Papi).

Aside
from the Sox and Brewers, only a few other teams warrant mentioning in this category. The Twins have reigning MVP Justin Morneau and Torii Hunter, but even though they're both having great years, they can't quite compete with the rest of the field. It's the same story for Jim Thome and Paul Konerko, plus they're both hitting under .265. I love David Wright, but Carlos Delgado is posting career lows in just about every category for the Mets. If Pat Burrell hadn't had such a God-awful first half, he and Ryan Howard might be more in the mix for the Phillies. Mark Teixeira and Chipper Jones don't really count because they're switch hitters, plus Andruw Jones is still hitting under .215 for the Braves. And when it comes to complimenting Albert Pujols, Chris Duncan is no replacement for Jim Edmonds in his prime, plus Albert's numbers, good as they are, are still down a little bit for the Cardinals.

That leaves the Brew Crew and the Sox, who make this list simply because Manny and Papi have had this honor locked down for most of the decade, and have appeared in 15 All-Star games, combined.

To begin with, let's look at their numbers, entering play Wednesday.

Fielder: .288, 37 HR, 89 RBI, 1.000 OPS
Braun: .354, 23 HR, 60 RBI, 1.080 OPS
Ortiz: .313, 19 HR, 71 RBI, .969 OPS
Ramirez: .292, 19 HR, 78 RBI, .882 OPS

That's no contest. And the difference is even more stark when you consider Braun wasn't called up until late May. But numbers can be deceiving, and part of being a feared middle of the order means you deliver in key spots, something David Ortiz has been known for throughout his career. Unfortunately for Beantowners, this doesn't help make the case for your boys, either.

Combined, Braun and Fielder are hitting .289 with 10 homeruns and 81 RBI with runners in scoring position. Manny and Papi are at an even .300 with 9 homeruns and 106 RBI, but that's in 81 more at-bats. If you take that out of the equation, Braun and Fielder average a homerun every 16.6 AB's with runners in scoring position while Manny and Papi average a jack with men in scoring position every 27.4 AB's. As for RBI with men in scoring position, Braun and Fielder average one every 2.0 AB's. Manny and Papi, one every 2.3 AB's.

But even scoring position numbers can lie. It's easy to hit when you're up or down by 7 runs. But what about when it's close and late (defined by stat-keepers as 7th-inning-on, and your team up a run, tied, or having the tying run on deck)? Surprisingly, this is when the beer makers walk away with it. Close and late this season, Braun and Fielder are hitting .350 with 8 HR and 18 RBI in 100 AB's. Just for good measure, Braun's late and close OPS is .830, while Fielder's is a preposterous 1.249. Manny and Papi are hitting just .207 late and close, with 2 HR and 9 RBI, in 106 AB's (Ortiz has no late and close homeruns this season). Manny's OPS in that time is a Jason-Kendall-like .566, while Papi's is .724.

Braun and Fielder seem to feed off each other. They're already homered in the same game 7 times this season, and 4 times this month alone. Braun turns 24 in November, and Fielder won't be 24 until next May. Yikes!

Fielder's across-the-board improvement from last year seems to suggest he's the real deal, while we won't know for sure about Braun until at least next year, even though he's doing things now
that most rookies simply don't do, like being the fastest to 20 homeruns since Pujols, while hitting over .350. So Kevin Maas comparisons are likely way off-base here.

Whether this duo is ready to supplant Manny and Papi on the perennial "most feared" list remains to be seen. Those guys happen to be suffering down seasons this year, but remain on Hall-of-Fame tracks (Manny moreso than Papi, right now). But the Rookie of the Year and MVP front runners in the NL sure have lots of folks in Wisconsin feeling awfully optimistic about the future.

5 comments:

Manny R. said...

Call me when they win a World Series.

David said...

I'm a big fan of the Alex Rodriguez-Hideki Matsui combo.

Rodriguez .301 39 114 107
Matsui: .298 23 81 81

I'll take that.

Baseblogger said...

Not a bad point about the Yanks, David. A-Rod is .340, 5, 18 close and late (providing a nice counterpoint to people who say he's been bad in the clutch in pinstripes).

But Matsui is just .256, 3, 53 with RISP and many of his AB's this season (34%) have been in the 6 hole, meaning (a) he's not always hitting right behind A-Rod, and (b) he's not technically in the middle of the order (3-4-5).

The Yankee lineup (and its hitters for that matter) has been so hot-and-cold this season, I guess I just don't think of A-Rod/Matsui in the same context as Braun/Fielder, Manny/Papi, or any of those other heart-of-the order combos.

Eric said...

Also Matsui has 23 home runs and I think 12 of them were in July. At the end of the year someone can look at his stats and say he had a great season, but to say he lacked consistency would be an understatement.

Baseblogger said...

For the record, Matsui hit 1 HR in April, 4 in May, 3 in June, 13 in July, and has 2 so far this month. So "inconsistent" is definitely the right word.

Plus, Matsui has never hit more than 31 homeruns in a single MLB season (that personal best is likely safe this season as well), so to call him a dangerous power hitter might not be too accurate.

Compare him with 23-year-old Fielder, who's a lock for 40 this year provided another umpire doesn't make him mad, and with 23-year-old Braun who could hit 30 this year in only about 400 AB's, and in my mind it's no contest.