It's Getting Interesting

With about 50 games left in the season, more than half the teams in baseball (16) are either in first place in their division, leading in the Wild Card chase, or within 5 games of the leader.

The tightest division remains the NL West where the hot Arizona Diamondbacks have a 2-game lead over the San Diego Padres, a 3-game lead over the surprising Colorado Rockies, and a 5-game lead over the seriously slumping LA Dodgers.

In the AL Central, the Indians and Tigers keep leap-frogging one another (the Tribe is up a half game right now), and in the NL Central, the Brewers are keeping the Chicago Cubs away with a chair, whip, and 1-game lead.

The LA Angels are 3 up on Seattle, the Mets are 4 up on the Phillies and 4.5 up on the Braves, and the Red Sox are 6 up on New York.

It gets even hairier when you look at the Wild Card situation. Right now, the M's have a percentage-points-lead over Detroit, with the Yanks just a half game out in the AL. In the NL, the Pads lead right now, but the Phillies (1 back), Braves (1.5 back), Rockies (2 back...seriously), Cubs (3 back) and Dodgers (3 back) are all very much alive.

Since the Wild Card format was born in 1995, there's never been more than 5 new playoff teams from one year to the next (and never fewer than 2). But there is actually a scenario where all 8 playoff teams in 2007 could be teams that missed the postseason in 2006. If things stay exactly as they are right now in the American League, we'd be halfway there, and that too has never happened before (a league sending 4 new teams to the playoffs). The Red Sox would need to win the East (which is likely), the Indians have to hold off the Tigers in the Central (which is probably a coin flip right now), LA would win the West (which is also likely), and the Mariners would somehow hold on to the Wild Card. Those four clubs would replace New York, Minnesota, Oakland and Detroit. In the NL, it's a little trickier, but only because of one division. The Mets would have to blow their 4 game lead over the Phillies, Milwaukee or the Cubs could take the Central, Arizona could win the West, and either Colorado , Atlanta, or the odd-man-out in the Central could get the wild card. Then we'd have four new NL teams from last year's Mets, Cardinals, Padres, and Dodgers.

My guess is, we have at least 4 new teams in the mix this year. Minnesota, Oakland, St. Louis, and the Dodgers or Padres will end up staying home. How it pans out from there is anybody's guess. But I do know this. These last 50 games should be good.