Would you give up Jacoby Ellsbury and Jon Lester, plus a minor leaguer to land Johan Santana? Apparently, that's the dilemma facing Theo Epstein and the Boston Red Sox.Initially, they told the Twins they could have either guy, plus mid-level prospects, but not both. Based on Boston's current situation, I'm inclined to think they should cave and give Minnesota what they want. And here's why.
As Curt Schilling wrote on his blog, a 1-2 punch of Santana and Beckett would give the Sox a feared, dynasty-worthy rotation for the rest of this decade and well into the next one. Johan turns 29 in March and Beckett turns 28 in May. These guys are in the midst of their best years right now. As for the short-term, you also have Schilling coming back for one more year, plus the ageless Tim Wakefield at the back end of the rotation. And in the long-term, Dice-K turns 28 next season and even if they give up Lester, they still have Clay Buchholz, who turns just 24 late next season (he's actually 8 months younger than Lester). In other words, their rotation could be Santana, Beckett, Dice-K, Buchholz until 2010, or beyond. There are exactly zero other teams whose pitching outlook would be as promising for the rest of the 00's.
That's not even factoring in the added bonus of keeping Santana away from the enemy- New York. Needless to say, this would be huge as well. And offensively, while there's no question Ellsbury provided Boston with an offensive spark late last season, let's not forget he only had 116 AB's in 2007. The Sox won a bunch of games without him and without a healthy Manny Ramirez or a productive Kevin Youkilis. With the emergence of Dustin Pedroia and a bounce-back year from Youk, the top of their order would be just fine and so would the middle.
A lot can happen in the days ahead and I wouldn't be at all surprised to see the Yankees flip-flop on their already-passed "Monday deadline" if there's still a chance they can land, arguably, the most coveted pitcher in baseball history. I just don't see how the Sox pass on this offer.
6 comments:
yeah but ellsbury and lester are two of my favorite (and cutest!) red sox players. why doesn't theo ever think about that?!?!?! ;)
Probably cuz he isn't gay.
Seriously, though, I can see both sides of the argument on giving up both guys. I'm fine with letting Lester go (even with all he went through in Boston), but Ellsbury looked so money (in terms of actually playing baseball) that I would fear they would be giving up too much.
bostondirtdogs.com refered to this as the winner's curse. Basically whoever wins a bidding war is going to overpay. The fact that he didn't have a typical Johan year last year lends itself to this theory even though I'm well aware that he is one of if not the best pitcher in the game.
he is awfully insensitive about that sometimes.
p.s. what does ezekiel have to say about your infatuation?
I can't imagine not making the deal.
Ellsbury's ceiling is Johnny Damon with a plus arm. His minor league OBP was solid, but the slugging is unspectacular. Lester has 74 BB and 110 K's in 114 major league innings. In two separate big league seasons, Lester has yet to get to a 2:1 K:BB. His 2005 season in Portland was good, but the rest of his minor league is solid if unspectacular.
In addition, is the difference between Lester and Joe Noname Prospect really worth the chance that the Yankees might end up with Santana? I can't believe that's the case.
This might be like when you get an unbelievable trade offer fantasy baseball. The Twins went to the Sox and said, "We went JE and JL." The Sox knew in an instant that they would do it, but didn't want to seem too eager. So they've made a counter offer knowing full well that if the Twins get a better deal from the Yankees, the Sox can always go back to the original offer.
funny you should ask, base blogger. i've been told (by ezekiel himself) that my one " celebrity freebie" could be any red sox player. his defense is that way, he can brag about it too. romantic, huh? my arguement is that if the sox lose lester or ellsbury, well, there goes two of my top five prospects!!
i see your point and the precarious situation you're in, but don't knock the rabbi's position. a potential red sox hookup? that's unquestionably reason to brag.
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