The O's Woes Might Not Continue Long

The Baltimore Orioles impress me this year, and I'm a little scared because I'm not used to this sort of thing happening. After all, this organization is responsible for such recent disasters as "The Sammy Sosa Experiment," "We Want Sidney Ponson Back" and "Here's $37M Albert Belle, Please Stay Away From Camden Yards." Those moves and others have translated into 9 straight losing seasons. As a matter of fact, they've finished over.500 just 4 times since 1990. Playing in a division with the Yankees, Red Sox, and (last year) Blue Jays, doesn't help either.

All that aside, I really think this team is moving in the right direction for the first time in a while. They finally have a halfway respectable, fairly young, pitching staff. Erik Bedard is looking like he belongs at the front end of a big league rotation. Daniel Cabrera certainly has the stuff to be a number one, and the longer Leo Mazzone works with him, the closer I think he is to getting there (but, man those walk totals are absurd...this guy is the real life Nuke LaLoosh).

Jaret Wright also has great stuff, and now that he's out of New York, could be a nice surprise for the O's, provided he doesn't get hurt, which is no guarantee. Kris Benson is a serviceable number four. And Adam Loewen had an up-and-down 2006, but he did beat the Yankees twice, and he only turns 23 this season. He'll probably battle Hayden Penn and others for the number five spot. The fact that Rodrigo Lopez, Bruce Chen, and Russ Ortiz aren't around to make any starts this year, will also help immensely.

The bullpen should be better too, thanks to an old face and lots of new ones. Chris Ray made the sting of B.J. Ryan's departure a hurt a lot less. Danys Baez, Chad Bradford, Jamie Walker and Scott Williamson should be solid additions to a staff that blew 21 saves last year.

Offensively, they're not that bad either. I'd love to see what Nick Markakis can do with a full season. If you take his second half of last year, and extrapolate it out over a full year, it works out to .312, 97 R, 38 2B, 31 HR, 92 RBI, 51 BB, 76 K. Those are All-Star numbers.

They just signed Corey Patterson and Brian Roberts to extensions. Patterson revived his career last year, hitting .276 and stealing 45 bases. Problem with him is, he strikes out so much (94 times last year, once every 4 times up for his career) that you can't hit him 1 or 2, you have to hit him last in the lineup. Roberts came back down to Earth last year, but .286, 85 runs, 10 homers and 36 steals is pretty good for a lead-off man, especially considering he was still recovering from his arm injury to start the season.

Miguel Tejada posted a career-high in batting average last year (.330) and is as steady as they come at short. Ramon Hernandez posted career bests in home runs, doubles and RBI. I also like the Jay Payton signing. He's always kind of been an "under-the-radar" kind of guy, but he has some pop, and hit .296 last year. He's kind of a Jeff Conine type player.

Their problems, as I see it, are at the corners, and DH. Melvin Mora had a dreadful 2006, and it's the second year in a row that he's declined a lot. He just turned 35, so this may be a sign of a career that's reaching the twilight years. I still find it remarkable that Kevin Millar/Jay Gibbons is the best they can do at first base. Gibbons just can't stay healthy, and when he is healthy, he's still an average power hitter (.277, 23 HR, 100 RBI in 2003, his only injury-free year). The days of thinking he's going to be a real threat to hit 30+ homers should be over, just as the days of thinking Kris Benson has Cy Young stuff are over. Millar may be a great teammate, but he's nothing special offensively either. He's hit .300 twice in 8 seasons, hit 20 HR twice, and he's never driven in 100. Plus, he's on the wrong side of 35. It blows my mind that with that little park, the O's can't attract some left-handed slugging first baseman to come play in Baltimore.

Then there's the Aubrey Huff signing. It should serve fans as a reminder that, while the ship is pointed the right way, it can still get thrown off course very easily. $20M over three years for a guy who is clearly not the same player he was a few years ago with the Devil Rays- bad birds, bad! Since 2003, Huff's production has dropped across the board to the point where he's now very average whether he's at first, DH or in the outfield (.267, 21 HR, 66 RBI with the Rays and Astros last year).

The O's are definitely at a disadvantage playing in the top-heavy AL East. But if their starters keep developing, if the offense does what it's capable of doing, and if the pen is decent, the 10th time might be the charm for Charm City. 82 wins isn't an unreasonable goal.