He rarely walks, but he's still probably the best lead-off hitter in the game. He plays a wicked right field. And at the end of the season, he's a free agent. Ichiro doesn't want to talk about it, so I will. Where should he end up, and where will he end up?Option 1 - He stays in Seattle.
In this scenario, he'd remain as close, geographically, to his native Japan as possible. But he sure wouldn't be any closer to winning a championship. The M's are one of 8 teams in the league with exactly zero World Series titles (the Rockies, Astros, Brewers, Padres, Devil Rays, Rangers and Expos/Nationals are the other 7), and one of only 5 to never even make it to the Fall Classic. Ichiro turns 34 at the end of the season. He was an MVP and batting champ overseas. He's an MVP and batting champ in the US. My guess is, he wants to win. And I'm not sure if Seattle will help him achieve that any time soon.
Option 2 - He joins the Yankees.
The Yanks apparently have an option on Bobby Abreu in 2008. They could pick it up and have an Abreu-Damon-Ichiro outfield (you could put any of them anywhere, except for Damon in right), or they could decline the option and then #51 replaces #53 in right. Ichiro does have a hose for an arm, but he's still not a starting pitcher (something the Yanks will likely need much more of this coming off-season, as compared to another bat). So I'm not convinced he'll be teammates with Hideki Matsui any time soon.
Option 3 - He joins the Red Sox.
J.D. Drew's not hurt yet, but c'mon. Right field in Boston is about as readily open as Britney Spears' room at the rehab clinic. And Coco Crisp hasn't really gotten the chance to prove himself. But in the meantime, is Kevin Youkilis really the answer at lead-off? And is this the off-season where the Sox finally do trade Manny Ramirez? Hard to say. But then again, Terry Francona's not exactly Whitey Herzog when it comes to stolen bases. The Sox swiped just 51 bags last year and 45 the year before. So it doesn't seem like Ichiro's slap-and-dash style would be used to its fullest capabilities in Beantown.
Option 4 - He joins the Cubs.
Hmmm. They keep saying the have tons of cash to spend. And right fielder Jacque Jones is one of just a few non-All Stars in their starting lineup. But like the Yanks, I think the Cubs will be in the market for pitching more than offense, come October. Still, can you think of a better way to start a lineup than Ichiro, Soriano, Lee, and Aramis Ramirez? Mark Prior could pitch with his left arm and still win.
Option 5 - He joins the Indians.
Double hmmm. He would be the veteran presence on a mostly up-and-coming young team. The Indians only have Casey Blake holding down the fort in right. And they like to run. They're not necessarily a big market team that's always in the running for the top free agent prize. Still, seems like a decent, "sleeper fit."
Option 6 - He joins the other New York team.
Sean Green's career is headed into its twilight years, but the Mets already have a pretty good lead-off hitter in Jose Reyes. Plus, like the Cubs and Yankees, the Mets need starting pitching, arguably the most out of all of them. So if they break the bank on anyone, it will most likely be on a replacement for Pedro or Tom Glavine, not Ichiro.
Option 7 - He joins the Phillies.
Not that I don't like Shane Victorino, but Ichiro would be an absolutely perfect fit in Philly. He and Jimmy Rollins would be fantastic table-setters for Chase Utley, and Ryan Howard. Remember that first-four-hitters-for-the-Cubs scenario? The Phils' first four with Mr. Suzuki would be even better. Plus, they already have decent starting pitching, so he would make them an instant favorite in the NL East (depending, of course, on what the Mets do). He would also give Philly one of the best defensive outfields in the game. He and Burrell get tons of assists, and Aaron Rowand is a regular on Web Gems.
Option 8 - He joins any other team.
I think you can instantly eliminate teams about 18 of the remaining 23 clubs because either (a) his presence alone won't make them an instant contender (Colorado, Texas, Washington to name a few), (b) they simply don't need a right-fielder (Atlanta, LA Angels, White Sox, teams like that), or (c) they don't stand a chance at out-bidding bigger market teams (Kansas City, Minnesota, Oakland, Tampa Bay, this list is long).
That really only leaves teams like Houston, St. Louis, San Diego, San Francisco, or maybe Toronto. Maybe he's the missing piece for one of these organizations. Houston is interesting, although for some reason, I just can't see him in an Astros uniform, although they did just trade their only real stolen base threat to the Rockies. St. Louis isn't getting any younger, and the Cards starting pitching took a huge hit this off-season. Ichiro would be a great table setter for the Giants, but there's nobody behind him to sit down and eat. And I think he'd stay in Seattle before he played in Canada.
If he is going to leave, I think he'd work out best in Philadelphia. But a lot can change between now and the World Series. Judging by what he said today, we'll probably have to wait at least 8 months to get any kind of idea what he's thinking and where, if anywhere, he's going.
5 comments:
Mr. Beck,
It appears that you have spent too much time focusing on left-coast baseball and missed some key Red Sox Facts.
First, Youkilis is not the leadoff answer, which is precisely why Lugo was added this winter. Youk's patience and on base percentage does lend itself very well to the #2 slot however.
Combine that with Manny finally getting his way (or more realistically, his contract finally getting short enough for another team to take it on) and parting ways with the Sox this winter would free up enough money to land Ichiro.
The Sox also have enough pitching to make a trade deadline move for someone like Ichiro, if Drew does follow his established career path.
Don't worry. I'll do my best to keep you updated on what's really happening in the Majors (aka the AL East).
Best Regards,
Manny R.
Geez...
Anyway, last I checked (and being a Red Sox fan, I check very often) Manny wasn't traded and the Sox and any suitors were still pretty far away from each other on what it would take to move him. They have said that they wouldn't trade him unless they got even money in return and there is nothing to suggest that is going to happen this winter (winter? hasn't spring training already started).
My mistake. You see, I'm in a spring state of mind and when I refered to this winter, I really meant next. I'm sure you'll agree that the buzz of spring training almost makes you forget that we are still in winter.
But do you really think that the Red Sox will continue to tolerate Manny's shenanigans, when as time passes Manny's contract will become easier for a potential suitor to handle and possibly offer close to "even money" for him?
The Red Sox have a great PR department and do a wonderful job of "supporting Manny" (which is a full time job), but getting something for Manny before he walks at the end of his contract anyhow will become more of a motivating factor as well.
Plus, there should be a lot of run production in next winter's free agent class.
Ah... ok, the fact that you meant next off season makes a lot more sense. I can't disagree with you.
I'm kinda surprised that they've put up with him this long... but he has never really hurt them when it mattered (he's quit a couple times when they were out of it, which I'm not condoning, in fact I hate that) and there aren't many RH hitters better than him. I just read Simmon's book on the Sox and Manny has always been this way - even in Cleveland.
They can only really move him if they get somebody to protect Papi and if next year's FA group offers that then I'd probably be OK with making a move.
They're hoping Lugo will work out as a lead-off hitter, but that's not necessarily a sure thing. He's a career .277 hitter with a strikeout-to-walk ratio of more than 2-1. His career on-base percentage is .340 (Youk's was .381 last year, his only full season as a starter). Plus, there's probably a good reason why he (Lugo) is now on his 4th team since 2003. Proven, talented players don't get bounced around that much. And just because he can steal bases, doesn't mean you can hit him first (see Patterson, Corey). So my point here is, don't be surprised to see the Greek God Of Walks leading off for Boston at some point this year.
And as for your Manny comments, Manny R., I think both sides are all talk. The Sox don't want to split up the best right/left middle-of-the-order combination in the game. And Manny, for as much as he has his Manny Moments, also benefits from playing 81 games a year in a hitter-friendly park. I think there's a good reason why these trade talks always fizzle.
And as for Ichiro, I just don't see him going to Boston. It wouldn't be a good fit. This team needs a second baseman and a closer before someone like him. Plus there's the fact that under Terry Francona, they simply don't run. Since he took over in 2004, the Sox have finished 21st, 28th, and dead last in baseball in stolen bases. They've stolen just 164 bases as a team in the last three years, despite having guys who can run (Johnny Damon, Orlando Cabrera, Dave Roberts, Edgar Renteria to name a few). Ichiro has averaged 39 steals a season since he came into the league. And since he's not a power hitter, it really makes no sense to put the brakes on him while he's on the basepaths, which Francona would no doubt do, because let's be honest, he doesn't want guys getting thrown out in front of Manny and Papi. They'll score on a home run whether they're on first, second, or third.
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