Remember When They Were Amazing?

What on Earth has happened to the New York Mets? They've lost 10 of 14. They're losing slug-fests. They're losing pitcher's duels. They're getting blown out. And unless they take 2 of 3 from the Florida Marlins this weekend at Shea, they might very well be watching the NLDS from home.

Right now, they're tied with the Philadelphia Phillies for first place in the East. Both teams also trail the San Diegoans?...San Diegans?...the Padres by one game in the Wild Card. For the record, the Pads have a tough weekend series at Milwaukee, while the Phils host the Nationals.

A breakdown of the Mets recent woes reveals the following. In their last 14 games, the Mets have been outscored 100-80. This means they're giving up 7.1 runs a game, and scoring 5.7. For the season, they're scoring 4.9 runs a game, but only allowing 4.6 runs per game, so obviously offense hasn't been their problem recently (although they were shut out last night).

With that established, is it the defense or the pitching? Well, it's both actually. They've committed 21 errors in those 14 games, or 1.5 per game, although that average is skewed significantly by a 17 inning stretch where they made 10 errors (6 one night, 4 the next) September 16 and 17. For the season, they're not nearly that brutal in the field. They're 18th in baseball in fielding percentage, committing 0.63 errors a game.

And it turns out those errors are making a huge difference. They've led to 12 unearned runs over that time, or 0.86 per game. That's more twice their season's average of 0.40 unearned runs allowed per game.

Now, let's talk about the pitching. As I said, Mets hurlers are allowing more than 7.1 runs a game in their last 14, and allowing more than 6.3 earned runs per game. That last statistic is a full two runs higher than their season's "earned runs per game average" (not to be confused with ERA, which measures earned runs allowed per 9 innings pitched). Over that time, their starters have allowed 57 runs, or 4.10 per start, while the bullpen has allowed 43 runs, or 3.1 per game. Again, remembering this is not ERA, it's "runs allowed per game," those numbers are exceptionally high, especially the bullpen statistic...3.1 runs allowed per game.

For good measure, Mets relievers have blown 3 saves in the last 14, after blowing just 14 in their previous 145 games. This means they're blowing saves more than twice as often now, as they did before.

The good news for Mets fans (and yes, some does exist) is that your team is still in first place and you've gone 10-5 this year against your remaining opponent. The bad news is that defensive play and relief pitching win playoff games more often than not. And right now, this team isn't doing either particularly well.

A Rocky End To Things

A long, long time ago (12 days to be exact), the Colorado Rockies were a mere 4 games above .500, in 4th place in the NL West, 6.5 games back of Arizona, 4 games back of San Diego for the Wild Card, and with just 14 games left in the season, reserving early-October tee times.

Fast forward to the present, and they find themselves right smack in the middle of things...winners of 10 in a row, 2.5 games back of 'Zona in the West, and 1 back of the Pads (and tied with the Phillies) for the Wild Card. What's interesting is that if any of the NL's division leaders were finishing strong, Colorado's run would have been classified as nothing more than "too little too late."

Consider this. During the Rockies' wining streak, New York is 4-7, Philly is 7-3, the Cubs are 6-4, Milwaukee is 6-5, Arizona is 6-4, and San Diego is 7-4. In other words, the three division leaders (Mets, Cubs, D-Backs) are 16-15, while the four teams battling for their playoff lives (Phillies, Brewers, Padres, Rockies) are 30-12!

Now, with just 4 days left in the regular season, there are an outlandish 8 (!) NL teams who are technically still alive (the 7 clubs I mentioned earlier, plus the Braves who are 4 back in the East and Wild Card). You have 3 teams that are within a game and a half of their division leader or the Wild Card. And you also have prognosticators like Buster Olney saying Troy Tulowitzki should win Rookie of the Year, not Ryan Braun; a simply nutty statement that's as trendy to say right now as, "oh yeah, I'm a big Rockies fan...have been all year."

So, as I have been known to do from time to time, allow me to make a few bold predictions. First, the Rockies will lose again this season. They have one more at LA tonight (Franklin Morales against Esteban Loaiza), before closing out their season at home, against (who else) the Diamondbacks. Ace Brandon Webb was scratched due to the "weather" today, but the D-Backs won anyway. This means they have a pretty strong trump card this weekend (although he is 0-3 with a 6.47 against the Rockies in 2007).

Furthermore, Colorado will miss the playoffs by a slim margin. Yes, they play great D and have Matt Holliday, but I'm still not buying this pitching staff. There are 4 spots up for grabs, and 7 teams legitimately in the running, meaning 3 have to be left out. My guess is it'll be Milwaukee, San Diego, and Colorado.

And finally, Ryan Braun will win Rookie of the Year by a large margin. I do think defense matters (Troy is Gold Glove caliber, while Braun sometimes looks like he's playing third, barehanded). In fact, his superior defense is why Dustin Perdoia should be the AL Rookie of the Year. But no AL rookie is doing what Braun is doing (.325, 33, 94, 14 steals in 109 games). Hell, there aren't too many non-rookies who have had that kind of 110-game stretch this year.

Come Sunday night, we'll see if I know what I'm talking about.

Is He A True Yankee Yet?

Overshadowed by Dioneer Navarro's walk-off homerun in the 10th and a Yankee loss, Alex Rodriguez hit a 3rd inning grand slam last night, and in doing so, became the first player in the history of the game to have 50 homeruns, 150 RBI, and 20 stolen bases in the same season.

His RBI total (151) is the most for a Yankee since Joe DiMaggio in 1948 (155), and his run total (139) is most by a Yankee since Rickey Henderson in 1985 (146).

Not a bad year.

The Artist Currently Known As Prince

Do you know who the youngest player is to hit 50 homeruns in a season? Here's a hint. His last name is Fielder and his first name isn't Cecil.

Prince Fielder unloaded on numbers 49 and 50 last night in the Brew Crew's 9-1 win over St. Louis, as he turned 23 years and 139 days old.

For the season, Fielder now ranks 1st in the NL in homeruns and slugging, 2nd in OPS, 3rd in RBI, 5th in runs, 9th in walks, and 10th in OBP. Further boosting his MVP resume, he's hitting .346 with 9 dingers in September (including more walks than strikeouts), and for the season he's hitting .329 close and late.

Interestingly, the younger Fielder openly admits he wants to hit two more homeruns this season and win the MVP, so he can best his dad, with whom he no longer speaks.

"Hopefully one day, when they mention my name, they won't have to mention his," he said.

Bad news NL hurlers...not only is this young, powerful, talented slugger making a last-ditch effort to blast his team into the post season (they're now 2 back of the Cubs with 5 to play), but he's also playing with the proverbial family chip on his shoulder.

Help Me, Father?

Actually, it's the fathers who need help at this point. The San Diego Padres had been on a 7-game winning streak before dropping their last 4, (3 at home against the Rockies and the first of 3 on the road against San Francisco), and in the process, dropping their Wild Card Lead. Now they're 3 back with 6 to play in the NL West (i.e., in trouble) and the Wild Card situation is murkier than ever. San Diego and Philadelphia are tied at 85-71 apiece. The Rockies (who've won 8 straight) are just a game back, and previously-down-and-out Atlanta is still on life support, sitting 3 back.

The Pads have 2 more with Frisco, then a potentially tough 4-game road series, against a likely-bitter Milwaukee club. The Phillies are home for their last 6, first it's Atlanta for 3, then the Nats for 3. Colorado has 3 at LA, then 3 at home against the division-leading Diamondbacks. We'll find out what they're made of this coming weekend. And finally the Braves, who basically have to win out, are on the road their final 6 games of the year...3 in Philly and 3 in Houston.

For the Padres, things are coming unraveled at a crucial time. Milton Bradley tore his right ACL as manager Bud Black was trying to restrain him from arguing balls and strikes with a home plate umpire, Sunday. He got ejected anyway, and he's done for the year. And earlier in that game, Bradley stepped on Mike Cameron's hand as the two were going after a ball in the gap. Now Cameron's right thumb has torn ligaments, and he's going to be limited these last six games as well. Add to that the fact that former Cy Young candidate Chris Young is 0-5 with a 5.61 since the start of August, Khalil Greene is 2 for his last 27, and they just traded for Jason Lane to be a starting outfielder the rest of the way.

Taking a usually laid-back San Diego approach to things, Black said, "We still determine our own fate...It's exciting. There are a lot of teams that would trade places with us."

We'll see if he's still saying that next week at this time.

The Weekend's Over, What Have We Learned?

Besides the fact that Tom Brady and Randy Moss look like Joe Montana and Jerry Rice, and besides the fact it appears Norv Turner has ruined yet another team, we learned quite a bit about baseball's nearly-over regular season.

First, after picking up his 20th Friday night, Josh Beckett probably locked up the Cy Young award, and also guaranteed the Sox a playoff appearance. They went 2-1 this weekend, as did New York, meaning they just might have righted the ship in time. As for Beckett, he'll likely be the majors' only 20-game winner. The fact that he's on a big-market team, could win 21, and his secondary numbers are good, spells trouble for the guy who deserves this award more- C.C. Sabathia.

Second, speaking of the Yankees, it's looking more and more likely that A-Rod will, in fact, make it to 150 RBI, meaning he's got a good chance at becoming the first ever "50-150-20" or "50-150-25" player. He has 4 RBI in the first 3 games of the series against the Jays, and now needs just 4 RBI and 1 steal in his last 7 to get there. There are also reports (although his agent denies them) that A-Rod will join the Cubs as a player/part owner next year. If he does go to the south side, let the record show, I called it back in February.

Third, not that it's any surprise, but Cleveland and LA also clinched this weekend. That's all. Ho hum. Right now Cleveland has a 0.5 game lead for best record in the AL and interestingly, no team will win 100 games this season (AL or NL). This happened last year too, so it's the first time we've seen back-to-back-no-100-game-winners since '91, '92.

In the NL, it looks like the Brew crew's days as playoff contenders are coming to a close. After losing 3 of 4 to Atlanta, they're 3.5 back now and taking on water. This also may cost Prince Fielder the MVP award. The Phillies couldn't make up any ground on the Mets, but they have pulled to within a half game of the Padres for the Wild Card. They did this, despite the fact that Ryan Howard needs just one more strikeout to set a new record of 196 in a season. It's funny that when you hit 40+ and drive in 120+, people don't seem to care.

And lastly, the Colorado Rockies, still remarkably alive in the Wild Card chase at 1.5 back, have set a new franchise record for wins with 84 (remarkably considering they've been to the playoffs once before). Wouldn't it be something if they crept in the back door after all the attention on the Mets, Phils, and Pads?

For Those Of You Still Paying Attention

...Alex Rodriguez still needs 7 RBI in his last 9 games to become baseball's first ever 50-150-20 player.

With 1 more stolen base and 7 more RBI, he'll be baseball's first 50-150-25 guy.

Watch how quickly Yankee fans forget though, if he goes 1-12 in the ALDS and New York gets bounced.

Would You Want Barry Bonds On Your Team In 2008?

The San Francisco Giants say #25 won't be back next year. Based on the shape of his knees, I'm assuming he's heading to the AL to DH.

He won't be cheap, so in my mind you can cross off teams like Toronto, Tampa Bay, Minnesota, Chicago, Kansas City, and Oakland right away. Other teams like Boston, Cleveland, Detroit, and LA seem to have pretty good chemistry and a decent crack at being right back in the mix next year, so why would they want to mess with Bonds? That really only leaves Baltimore, New York, Seattle, and Texas.

This is totally something the O's would do (bring in an aging, injury-prone slugger, way past his prime), plus they desperately need somebody to get fans in the stands each night and Bonds could post pretty good number in that ballpark.

If A-Rod takes off, Bonds might soften that blow in the Yankee lineup, although that means they'd have both "Game of Shadows" cover-boys on the same team.

Bonds-to-Seattle just might give the M's the offensive spark they've been missing this season. He'd be a nice compliment to Beltre and Sexson in the middle of the order.

And with Texas, who knows? They claim to be in a youth movement, but may also bring back Sammy Sosa next year. Bonds' agent claims he's intent on winning a World Series though, and Texas seems to be at least a few years away from achieving that.

One thing's for sure. The free agent market just got a whole lot more interesting.

And Down The Stretch They Come

As most teams prepare for their final three series of the season, a number of playoff spots and seedings are still up for grabs. Here's a look at who's playing who, and how they've fared against those teams, thus far.

Boston (90-63, 1.5 up in AL East, 1 back for AL best record)
3 games at Tampa Bay (11 wins, 4 losses)
2 games vs Oakland (2 wins, 4 losses)
4 games vs Minnesota (2 wins, 1 loss)
Total record against remaining teams: 15-9, .625

New York (88-64, 1.5 back in AL East, 5.5 up in Wild Card)
4 games vs Toronto (8 wins, 6 losses)
3 games at Tampa Bay (8 wins, 7 losses)
3 games at Baltimore (7 wins, 8 losses)
Total record against remaining teams: 23-21, .523

Cleveland (90-62, 7.5 up in AL Central, 0.5 back for AL best record)
3 games vs Oakland (4 wins, 3 losses)
4 games at Seattle (2 wins, 1 loss)
3 games at Kansas City (9 wins, 6 losses)
Total record against remaining teams: 15-10, .600

Los Angeles (91-62, 9.5 up in AL West, 0.5 up for AL best record)
3 games vs Seattle (12 wins, 4 losses)
3 games at Texas (10 wins, 6 losses)
3 games at Oakland (9 wins, 10 losses)
Total record against remaining teams: 31-20, .608

New York (84-68, 1.5 up in NL East, 1.5 back for NL best record)
3 games at Florida (7 wins, 5 losses)
3 games vs Washington (9 wins, 6 losses)
1 game vs St. Louis (1 win, 5 losses)
3 games vs Florida (7 wins, 5 losses)
Total record against remaining teams: 24-21, .533

Philadelphia (83-70, 1.5 back in NL East, 2.5 back in NL Wild Card, 3 back for NL best record)
3 games at Washington (8 wins, 4 losses)
3 games vs Atlanta (7 wins, 8 losses)
3 games vs Washington (8 wins, 4 losses)
Total record against remaining teams: 23-16, .590

Chicago Cubs (80-73, 1.5 up in NL Central, 6 back for NL best record)
3 games vs Pittsburgh (5 wins, 7 losses)
3 games at Florida (0 wins, 3 losses)
3 games at Cincinnati (7 wins, 8 losses)
Total record against remaining teams: 12-18, .400

Milwaukee Brewers (78-74, 1.5 back in NL Central, 7 back in Wild Card, 7.5 back for NL best record)
3 games at Atlanta (1 win, 3 losses)
3 games vs St. Louis (5 wins, 7 losses)
4 games vs San Diego (0 wins, 3 losses)
Total record against remaining teams: 6-13, .316

Arizona Diamondbacks (86-67, 0.5 up in NL West, 0.5 up for NL best record)
3 games vs LA (6 wins, 9 losses)
3 games at Pittsburgh (4 wins, 2 losses)
3 games at Colorado (7 wins, 8 losses)
Total record against remaining teams: 17-19, .472

San Diego Padres (85-67, 0.5 back in NL West, 2.5 up in Wild Card, 0.5 back for NL best record)
3 games vs Colorado (8 wins, 7 losses)
3 games at San Francisco (12 wins, 3 losses)
4 games at Milwaukee (3 wins, 0 losses)
Total record against remaining teams: 23-10, .697)

What's Left To Ponder?

It's interesting how remarkably different the AL and NL playoff races are starting to look, with only about 10 games left. In the AL, it's all-but-over. While in the NL, the next week and a half is going to be nuts!

We'll start in the AL, where it's pretty evident at this point that Boston, New York, Cleveland, and LA are in. It's just a question of whether the slumping Sox or surging Yanks will win the East (they're separated by 1.5 games), and who ends up with the league's best record (Cleveland and LA are both 90-62). First-round match-ups are determined by seeding the division winners 1-3, and the Wild Card team is automatically the 4 seed. Seed 1 plays 4 and seed 2 plays 3, as long as two teams in the same division don't play each other in the first round. At this point, both first round match-ups are on the table (Cleveland vs. New York, LA vs. Boston or LA vs. New York, Cleveland vs. Boston) and mathematically, any of the four teams can still be the number one seed, and thus have home field advantage. But the real drama with who's in and who's out, is done.

Then there's the NL, where the three teams in first place in the East, Central, and West could all make it in, or the three teams in second place in the East, Central, and West could all make it in. The Mets have lost 5 of 6, including 3 in a row to the second place Phillies, who are now just 2.5 back. The Cubs and Brewers have the exact same number of losses (73), but the Cubbies have 2 more wins, and a slim 1 game lead. And it's the same story in the West, where Arizona and San Diego both have 67 losses, but the D-Backs have 2 more wins and a 1 game lead. The Phillies are also 2.5 out in the Wild Card race, where the Padres currently have the lead. And as for best record, Arizona, New York, and San Diego all have 67 losses, but the D-Backs have 2 more wins than anybody else, and thus a 1 game lead. Of those 6 teams (New York, Philadelphia, Chicago, Milwaukee Arizona, San Diego) 2 will be awfully disappointed when the season ends. I'm inclined to think it's going to be Philadelphia and the second place team from the Central.

On a side note, it's quite likely we won't have a 100-game winner again this year, which I suppose, speaks to baseball's parity. The Indians and Angels would have to win the rest of their games to hit the century mark, and no other teams can finish with more than 99. We also didn't have a 100-game winner in 2006, meaning if we don't have any teams make it to 100 this year, it will be the first time since the 1991 and 1992 seasons that baseball hasn't had a 100 game winner for two straight seasons.

On a side, side note, I made a friendly bet with a friend of mine last night that the Red Sox won't get to within a game of the World Series (i.e. will win no more than 2 games in the ALCS). Based on how they're playing right now, I'm thinking that's a safe bet.

Are The Boston Red Sox In Trouble?

This would have been a silly question to ask just a few weeks ago, but now, I'm not so sure.

After losing 8-7 last night to the New York Yankees (they had a 7-2 lead in the 8th inning) they are now just 4.5 games up in the AL East. That's the smallest their lead has been since August 19, and if New York wins again tonight, their lead will dip below 4 games for the first time since May 1. They've also dropped 5 straight and 8 of their last 10 to the Yankees.

Remember that bullpen that was supposed to be so good? Well, it's not right now. Entering the month of August, Hideki Okajima's ERA was 0.87 in 47 appearances. It's 4.80 in his 16 appearances since. Eric Gagne has an 8.25 ERA, 2.08 WHIP and 2 blown saves in 13 appearances since coming over from Texas. This may be the most telling stat of them all for #83...he's had exactly zero 1-2-3 innings. These guys are supposed to get the team from its starters to closer Jonathan Papelbon (who blew a rare save and took the loss last night), but that's just not happening.

The Sox offense remains uneven, as well. Manny Ramirez hasn't played since August 28 because of an oblique injury, Kevin Youkilis is hitting just .231 in the second half, and they still don't have a bona fide leadoff man. This season their leadoff hitters (they've tried 8 different guys) are batting just .258 with a .321 OBP. Only the White Sox, Devil Rays, and Blue Jays have suffered lower batting averages from their leadoff men, and in terms of OBP, these four teams are all within .004 of each other. The man who's led-off the most for Boston, Julio Lugo, still has an OBP below .300 for the season and according to his splits, he's much more comfortable in the 9 hole (.331/.372 compared to .225/.287).

There's virtually no way these problems are going to be enough to keep Boston out of the playoffs completely. After all, they have a 4.5 game lead in their division with just 14 to go, and if it gets to that point, they're 8 up on Detroit for the Wild Card. But I do think these problems, if unsolved between now and October, will be enough to keep them out of the World Series, and quite possibly, out of the ALCS- quite a statement for the team with baseball's best record.

Stop The Presses!

Jayson Stark actually agrees with me on something!

Like I predicted two weeks ago, JS is now saying C.C. Sabathia and Jake Peavy should win the Cy Young awards in their respective divisions. This is unusual to say the least, considering our Stark differences of opinion on baseball's most overrated players.

Perhaps he's been reading the Baseblogg.

An HGH Blood Test In 2008?

Major League Baseball wants to do it, but the players union would have to okay it first. I am sure there are many players who will be (secretly) vehemently against an HGH-testing policy. But the union is going to have a hard time saying "no" to this one, then looking fans and the commissioner in the eye and saying, "yes, we agree performance enhancing drugs are a big problem in the sport and we're willing to work toward finding a solution."

The sad part is, some guy is in a lab right now working on the next undetectable thing. But if they do adopt this policy, at least nobody can accuse MLB of being complicit in the problem any more. Let's not forget about their beefed-up, then re-beefed-up steroids policy.

Way To Go, Justin!

Justin Maxwell, a teammate of mine at the University of Maryland in 2002, hit a pinch hit grand slam off Chris Seddon in the 4th inning of tonight's game against the Florida Marlins. Not only is it his first career salami, it's also his first career homerun, and first career hit!

Justin was a freshman when I was a senior and I still remember how badly our coaching staff wanted him to come to Maryland when he was on his recruiting visit with us the year before. He was a squeaky-clean kid, had terrific grades and was considering Harvard, but chose College Park instead.

He's been ranked as one of the Nats' top prospects the last few seasons and it's easy to see why. He's 6'5'', 225 pounds, is silky-smooth in the outfield, and turns 24 in November- definitely a guy Washington fans want to keep an eye on in spring training next year.

The Rest Of The Way Home

Unless the Yankees sweep the Red Sox (again) this weekend at Fenway, it's probably safe to say Boston has the AL East locked up at this point. They have a 5 game lead right now with 2 more games against Tampa, the New York series (which is 3 games), and 3 each on the road against the Jays and Rays, before finishing up at home with 2 against Oakland and 4 against Minnesota. Of their 17 remaining games, only 3 are against teams with any hope of playing in October.

As for the Yankees, they're 3.5 up on Detroit for the Wild Card and 5.5 up on all-but-irrelevant Seattle. New York begins a 6-game road trip tonight in Toronto before heading to Boston for 3. The Orioles come to the Bronx for 3 and the Jays visit for 4 before they finish up on the road at Tampa and at Baltimore. Like the Sox, the Yanks only have 3 games out of their last 19 against potential playoff teams, and those games are this weekend.

In the Central, Cleveland is 6 up on Detroit right now but those two teams do have 3 more against each other, in Cleveland. First, the Tribe has 2 more at Chicago, then they're home for 3 with Kansas City. After the Detroit series, Oakland comes to town for 3 before they head out to Seattle for 4 and Kansas City for 3. 8 of their remaining games 18 games are against the Royals or White Sox. They should be fine.

In the West, LA is 8.5 up on Seattle. They'll probably be the first team in baseball to clinch considering their remaining schedule includes the Orioles, White Sox, Devil Rays, Mariners, Texas, and Oakland. My guess is, Seattle will have virtually no shot at the AL West crown by the time their September 20th series rolls around.

Speaking of Seattle, they're now gunning for the Wild Card and not going about it too well. They're 5.5 back of the Yankees right now, they've lost 14 of their last 16, have 2 more at home with the A's, 4 with the Rays, then they go to Oakland for 3 and to Los Angeles for 4, before returning home for 4 games with Cleveland and 3 with Texas. The M's are playing horribly right now and that schedule won't help. They'll probably be on the outside, looking in.

That leaves Detroit. They're 3.5 back of the Yankees, and just lost Jeremy Bonderman for the season. But, aside from those 3 games in Cleveland, they have a relatively easy schedule- Texas, at Minnesota, Kansas City, Minnesota, and at Chicago. In the unlikely event the Yankees falter, Detroit could make it interesting.

In the NL East, the Mets really have a chance to pull away from the Phillies for good, this week. They're 6 up right now, with two more against the Braves before this weekend's series. After that, it's a cake-walk...at Washington and Florida, at home against Washington, one against the Cardinals, then three more with the Marlins. If the Phillies don't sweep, the division should be theirs. If they do, it will get really interesting. More on the Phils in a minute.

The Central race is the closest in baseball. Either the Cubs or Brewers will likely hold off the other guy (they're both 73-70 right now), while the other guy is left out of the postseason. But the Cardinals (3 back) could play the role of spoiler. The Cubbies have 3 at Houston, 4 at St. Louis (which will be huge), then they play the Reds, Pirates at home, and finish up at Florida and Cincinnati.

The Brewers have a tougher schedule the rest of the way, with series against the Cardinals (3 at home), and Padres (4 at home) as their last 7 games of 2007. Before that, they need to finish their series at Pittsburgh, host Cincinnati and go to Houston and Atlanta.

The Cardinals control their own destiny more than anyone but their schedule is also tougher than anyone's. They're at the Reds, host Cubs, Phillies and Houston before gong to Milwaukee, New York for one, and finishing up in Pittsburgh- a very tough road.

The West race has the D-Backs back on top of the Pads by 3.5 with the Dodgers 6 back and taking on water. Arizona has two more at San Fran, 3 more at LA, then 3 at home each with those two clubs before finishing up at Pittsburgh and Colorado. I like their chances.

San Diego has the Dodgers, Giants, Pirates, Rockies, Giants and Brewers before it's all over. I imagine they'll hold on to the Wild Card, unless the Phillies sweep the Mets this weekend.

Speaking of the Phils, they're only 1.5 back in the Wild Card, but have the Mets and Cardinals on their schedule. To counteract that though, they also have 7 of their last 19 against the Nationals, so they could make it interesting.

And the Dodgers, 2.5 back for the Wild Card, have San Diego and Arizona twice on their schedule, meaning their fate, gloomy as it seems right now, rests in their own hands to a certain extent.

Hard to imagine there's less than 3 weeks left!

What's Next? Brian Roberts Indicted On Federal Dogfighting Charges?

For the 2007 Baltimore Orioles, it's a season that's already seen...

*A play-by-play announcer question the authenticity of Curt Schilling's bloody sock on the air, then apologize

*The color man make an on-air joke about domestic violence, then apologize

*The manager get fired

*The franchise player break his wrist, go on the DL, and lose his consecutive games played streak

*A dependable veteran starting pitcher be declared done for the season in spring training

*An up-and-coming starting pitcher suffer a season-ending injury after 6 starts

*Another starting pitcher hoping for a bounce-back season suffer a season-ending injury after 3 starts

*The closer suffer a season-ending injury around the All-Star break

*The ace and Cy Young candidate suffer a season-ending injury down the stretch

*A Rookie of the Year candidate fizzle down the stretch

*A modern-era-worst 30-3 loss at home

*A no-hitter at the hands of a pitcher making his second career start

*A revamped bullpen blow more saves than any team in the league

*A 9-game losing streak

*Another 9-game losing streak, and...

*Unless they win their last 20 games, a 10th straight losing season

Now you can add to that...a player accused of receiving human growth hormone from a now-infamous pharmacy. Say what you will about Jay Gibbons, but if he did in fact use HGH, it just proves the point many people have tried to make about Barry Bonds. Performance-enhancing drugs don't always enhance your performance.

At least now, it's football season.

A Grand(erson) Season

Curtis Granderson did it.

This afternoon, he stole his 20th base of the season and also hit his 21st homerun for good measure.

This means he now has 36 doubles, 22 triples, 21 homeruns, and 20 steals. This also means he is the third 20-20-20-20 player in baseball history and the first in 50 years. Add to that, an average right around .300 and 110+ runs scored and it's easy to see why the Tigers love this guy.

Because you're probably wondering, Willie Mays went 26-20-35-38 in 1957 for the New York Giants and Frank Schulte went 30-21-21-23 for the 1911 Chicago Cubs en route to winning the MVP.

Granderson won't win the MVP, he's still a virtual unknown to casual baseball fans, and at the beginning of the season even fantasy owners didn't think much of him, selecting him, on average, 177th overall after guys like Dustin Hermanson, Kei Igawa, and Jorge Cantu. I bet that changes next season, though.

Chris B. Having A Strange Year

.238 batting average, 28 homeruns, 24 steals, .294 on base percentage...these are numbers that just don't go together all that often. Yet for Chris "The Statistical Anomaly" B. Young this is his 2007.

What's important here is the fact that he could go 30-30, despite an OBP below .300. Entering Sunday, the D-Backs have 19 games remaining. Based on his performance to date, Young should get about 78 more plate appearances. If he does, and hits at least 2 homeruns, steals at least 6 bases, and doesn't reach base more than 28 times, he'll finish up 30-30, sub-.300.

So I asked myself, "self, has this ever happened before?" Not knowing the answer off the top of my head, I did a little research. And here's what I found.

*Alfonso Soriano came awfully close just two years ago when he went .268, 36, 33, .309 for the Texas Rangers.

*I thought I'd found a winner when I stumbled upon Preston Wilson's 2000 season, where he hit 31, stole 36, and punched out 187 times for the Marlins. But his OBP was .331! Not bad for a guy who wiffed that much.

*Jose Canseco warrants mention for his 1998 season with Toronto. He hit 46, stole 29, batted just .237, but had an OBP of .318.

*Sammy Sosa had a very "Alfonso Soriano" 1993 (or maybe it was Soriano who had a very "Sammy Sosa" year, 12 years later) going .261, 33, 36, .309 for the Cubbies.

*Despite a .251 batting average in 1991, Ron Gant hit 32 homeruns, stole 34 bases, and had an OBP of .338.

*Joe Carter came just a few walks shy of the mark in 1987 for the Tribe. His numbers were .264, 32, 31, .304.

*Despite being just a career .268 hitter, and a 30-30 machine in the late 60s and 70s (he did it 5 times), Bobby Bonds never came close to a .300 OBP.

*Baseball had a 34-year "30-30 drought" from the time Ken Williams did it in 1922 (he was the first ever) to the time Willie Mays did it in 1956. Neither got close to a .300 OBP.

*In 1920, George Sisler's batting average was .407 the year he hit 49 doubles, 18 triples, 19 homeruns and stole 42 bases.

*Before 1920, no players hit 30 homeruns in a season. Usually 20 or fewer led the majors.

So what does this tell us? Well, it tells us Chris B. Young has the chance to accomplish something no player has in the history of baseball: a 30-30 season with an OBP of less than .300. He also has a chance to set the new mark for worst batting average in a 30-30 season. Gant's .251 is worst right now, however if Canseco stole one more base in '98, he'd own that distinction with a .237 mark which would have put him and Young in a real dogfight.

I don't know what that means for the rest of Young's career, though. You have to be pretty good to go 30-30 and pretty bad to get 600 plate appearances and not reach at least 180 times. Either way, I'm going to be rooting for (and I suppose, against) him these last three weeks.

Boy I'm Getting Sick Of This

Just when you think you've found a truly inspirational story, a really likable guy, someone you can cheer for no matter who your team is, you find out he's been linked to an HGH probe.

Sometimes I really do hate baseball.

Also, more bad news for Baltimore Orioles fans. Not only is your team now 3 losses away from a 10th straight losing season, but as I predicted, Erik Bedard's oblique injury will likely shelve him for the rest of 2007, and with it, any hope he had of winning the Cy Young award. That, too, is a real shame because it would have been a tremendous boost to a team that desperately needs one.

Why Carlos Zambrano Will Never Achieve His Potential

Here's a guy with a 97 mile-an-hour fastball, a Roger Clemens body-type, 12 career homeruns in 398 at-bats, and the Pittsburgh Pirates and Cincinnati Reds playing in his division. Yet he can't seem to top 16 wins in a season. And here's a bold prediction...he never will. Want to know why? Because he's an absolute headcase.

For Treinta Ocho, 2007 has been a tale of three seasons. There's been "pre-fight-with-Michael Barrett," "post-fight-with-Michael-Barrett," and "August on." For fun, let's call them 2007A, 2007B, and 2007C. For even more fun, let's show you how they compare:

2007A (April 2-June 1) 5-5, 5.62 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, 1.50 K:BB (12 starts)
2007B (June 6-July 29) 9-2, 1.41 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 2.48 K:BB (11 starts)
2007C (August 3-Now) 0-5, 8.29 ERA, 1.99 WHIP, 1.23 K:BB (6 starts)

This is the same guy. And yet he wonders why normally cordial Cub fans are booing him.

"I can't understand that," Zambrano said. "They showed me today they just care about them. That's no fair. Because when you are struggling, that's when you want to feel the support of the fans."

Maybe they're pissed, TO, because you're allowing more than an earned run an inning since signing a fat contract extension through 2012. Maybe they're pissed, TO, because your inconsistency is the only consistent part of your game, even though you're 26 and in your 6th full season. Maybe they're pissed, TO, because your team is counting on you down the stretch. You complained about not having a new deal in spring training. Now you have one, your team is clinging to a division lead, and you're pitching like Victor Zambrano.

Mark my words, TO's career-high win total won't top 16, and in a few years, the Cubs will be kicking themselves for giving this baby more money.

Strike Out Child Abuse

As part of fundraiser this past weekend at Arthur W. Perdue Stadium (home of the Delmarva Shorebirds) I pitched on the game mound to Wicomico County State's attorney Davis Ruark, a former outfielder for Wake Forest. Our hitter/pitcher confrontation happened just before the Shorebirds lost to the Lake County Captains in extra innings, 2-1.

That night, we raised more than $12,000 for the Wicomico Child Advocacy Center, an organization that investigates, prosecutes, and treats the victims of child abuse on the Eastern Shore. We sold tickets to the game, held a silent auction, and accepted donations from people in the community.

As I promised I would, I threw the first pitch over his head, off the green pad behind home plate, a-la Randy Johnson to John Kruk in the 1993 All-Star Game at Camden Yards. Davis promptly charged the mound.

They didn't have the radar gun on me, but if I had to estimate, I would say I didn't come anywhere close to hitting my "in-shape-personal-best" of 89 miles an hour. It was still a blast though.

Welcome Back

A couple of potentially playoff-bound teams will gladly welcome the return of former 20-game winners to their starting rotations this week.

First the New York Mets, 3 games up on the Philadelphia Phillies in the NL East, will send Pedro Martinez to the mound Monday night in Cincinnati, to take on Aaron Harang and the Reds. Pedro hasn't pitched since September 27 of last year when he suffered his fourth straight loss and retired just 8 batters before giving up 7 runs to the Atlanta Braves. He had off-season rotator cuff surgery and Willie Randolph says he will be limited to 75 pitches and no more than 35 in an inning, tomorrow.

And the St. Louis Cardinals, now 2 games back of the NL Central leading Cubs, will get Mark Mulder back in their starting rotation, likely Wednesday, at home, against Matt Morris and the Pittsburgh Pirates. Mulder, like Pedro, had rotator cuff surgery in the off-season and has been rehabbing ever since. Mulder has not pitched in a big league game since August 29 of last year, where he suffered his third straight loss and got just 5 outs before giving up 5 runs to the Florida Marlins. Interestingly, once he returns, the Cardinals will go to a 6-man rotation featuring Adam Wainwright, Braden Looper, Kip Wells, Joel Pineiro, Mulder, and Anthony Reyes. The thinking here is all the converted relievers, rookies, and guys coming off injuries will have an extra day's rest in-between starts. Tony LaRussa hasn't said what sort of restrictions will be in place for Mulder, but you can bet he'll be on a pitch count for a while.

It's difficult to say what sort of impact these two will have, if any, on the 2007 stretch run. But you know their teams and teammates are just glad to see them, apparently, fully recovered from major arm surgery. At their peak, these guys were some of the best in the game and just a few years ago, both were still major contributors. In 2005 Pedro went 15-8 with a 2.82 and 208 K's while Mulder was 16-8 with a 3.74 ERA and 2 shutouts. If they can both make about 4 starts this month and get their arms into decent shape, and if their teams make it to October, who knows, they could come up huge.

O What A Season

Seven losses from clinching their 10th straight losing season, losers of 10 of their last 11, and 10 days removed from a record-breaking 30-3 loss at home, things couldn't possibly get worse for the Baltimore Orioles, right? How about getting no-hit by a guy making his second big league start ever?!

Clay Buchholz walked 3, struck out 9, and gave up exactly zero hits at home tonight, in a 10-0 laugher. He is just the third pitcher in the modern era to throw a no-no in his first or second career start, and the first to do it since Wilson Alvarez in 1991 against, you guessed it, the Baltimore Orioles.

"It's amazing. That's all I can say," Buchholz beamed after the game.

Orioles fans might not use the exact same word, but I'm sure they're in disbelief as well.

For those of you keeping score, the official Dave Trembley era is off to a 1-10 start. Stay tuned.

One Month Left

Some awards are in the bag as far as I'm concerned, while others might not be decided until the final week of the season. Either way, here are my favorites, thus far, for baseball's major awards.

MVP, AL - Alex Rodriguez (.305, 44, 125, 20 steals)
Magglio Ordonez picked a bad year to have a great year because he deserves this award, there's no question about it. But when you consider the fact that A-Rod is first in the league in homeruns, runs, OPS, RBI, and slugging, plus he's on pace to become baseball's first-ever 50-150-20 guy, how can he not win this award? The Yankees playoff status should not factor into this decision.

MVP, NL - David Wright (.319, 24, 87, 30 steals)
Wright is one of about 7 guys who could legitimately win this honor right now. But here's why I'm leaning in his direction. If everything goes the way it should, he would finish around .320, with a 30-30 season, 100 runs, 100 RBI, an OBP of well over .400 and he's going to be the only guy in the NL to do that. However, if Ryan Howard or Prince Fielder power their teams into the playoffs with big Septembers, they'll probably win this award. Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins could also get a lot of votes if they score a bunch of runs and get a bunch of hits this month. And let's not forget about the seasons Hanley Ramirez and Jose Reyes are having. This one's going to be close, no question.

Cy Young, AL - C.C. Sabathia (15-7, 3.37 ERA, 176 K's)
This one may be even closer than NL MVP. And just like that award, this one will be decided by everyone's last 5 or 6 starts of the season. All things being equal, I still like Erik Bedard best, but he missed yesterday's start with a strained oblique muscle. Those things don't heal quickly, and the O's are awful, so he may be on a short leash the rest of the way home, which will hurt his chances significantly. Santana's numbers are good, but he hasn't been quite as dominant as he's been in years past. Haren's had a very average second half, and Lackey, Escobar, and Beckett's numbers have all been buoyed by their teams. That's why C.C.'s my man here. He's first in innings pitched, top-5 in wins, complete games, K's, and quality start percentage, and top-10 in ERA and winning percentage. A dependable, workhorse, ace on a playoff team...that's what being a Cy Young award winner is all about.

Cy Young, NL - Jake Peavy (15-5, 2.18, 197 K's)
As hard as the last two awards have been to choose, this one is just as easy. Peavy is in a class all by himself, and currently leads in all three of pitching's triple crown categories (wins, ERA, K's). For good measure, he's also number one in quality start percentage, 0.01 behind the leader in WHIP, and second in BAA. Congrats in advance, Jake.

ROY, AL - Dustin Pedroia (.321, 6, 42, 5 errors)
Most people thought a guy from Boston would win this award, but they didn't think he'd be an American second baseman. Pedroia is top-10 in the league (and first among rookies) in hitting, is a hell of a tough out (.392 OBP, 34 K's all year), and is one of the best fielding second basemen in all of baseball (.990 fielding percentage, 5 errors). There's not much that's not likable about this guy, and considering Alex Gordon's complete flop, Delmon Young's lack of production, and Dice-K's very average 13-11, 3.88 year, he's my guy. How much you want to bet Pedroia doesn't win, though because he's not a power hitter?

ROY, NL - Ryan Braun (.329, 25, 68, 13 steals)
He's not quite as much of a lock for his award as Jake Peavy is for Cy Young, but he's awfully close. Braun leads all rookies in hitting and OPS and he's second only to Chris B. Young in homeruns. If he gets there, a 30-30 season by Young will get a lot of attention, but his God-awful .234 batting average and even worse .287 OBP should cool voters off. The bottom line is, Braun should be able to have an okay September and still walk away with this award because he's a much more complete player than Young, at least right now.

Comeback Player Of The Year, AL - Carlos Pena (.274, 33, 92)
With all due respect to Jack Cust, the award is Pena's, hands-down. Between 2005 and 2006, he didn't get 300 at-bats total because he wasn't good enough to crack anybody's starting lineup. Now he's one of the most dangerous first basemen in the league. He'll have posted carer bests in every category by the end of the season and if it wasn't for A-Rod, he'd be leading the league in homeruns.

Comeback Player Of The Year, NL - Josh Hamilton (.278, 18, 43)
That Josh Hamilton is alive is an accomplishment in and of itself. Drug problems kept him off the field for a long time and it seemed like number one overall pick in 1999 was going to be a complete and utter waste of talent. But he's battled his way back from addiction and has enjoyed a very nice, if not injury-reduced season. Rick Ankiel should also get some votes here too.

Manager Of The Year, AL - Joe Torre
After all the Yanks have been through this season, and after their miserable start, the fact that Torre has this team atop the AL Wild Card race right now is an unbelievable accomplishment. He never pushed the panic button, and thankfully for New Yorkers, George Steinbrenner didn't either.

Manager Of The Year, NL - Tony LaRussa
No Chris Carpenter, an unproductive Scott Rolen and Jim Edmonds, and an absolutely patch-work pitching staff should have been the recipe for a 70-92 season. But LaRussa has this team within a game of .500, and within 2 games of the NL Central lead. This is why he's a Hall of Famer.