Top Five Fantasy Questions

As someone who's participated in a fair share of fantasy drafts, I have a pretty good idea of how this year's draft will go.

But I also know that this year, like every year, there are going to be a few things that we just won't know until we're well into the draft, and in some cases, well into the season. So here is my list of top five fantasy draft question marks.

#5. Who's closing and who's best?
ESPN says it's K-Rod. Last year's numbers say it's Joe Nathan and history says it's Mariano Rivera. By the way, B.J. Ryan had the best ERA (1.37) out of all of them! Personally, I think you have to factor in the teams these guys are closing for, and how many opportunities they'll likely get. That, in my mind, gives K-Rod the clear edge as the guy who should go first. That's a much easier question to answer than "who will get the most save chances for the Red Sox?" A handful of guys are competing for that job (Joel Pineiro, Mike Timlin, Manny Delcarmen, Craig Hansen, Julian Tavarez) which means there's no clear-cut favorite. There's also some debate in Cincinnati, Florida, and Kansas City. Cheap saves are always a great thing to find on the waiver wire, and there's absolutely no way to know who they're going to come from, without checking every day (remember Joe Borowski and Salomon Torres last year?).

#4. How far does A-Rod slide?
As I've said before, you can probably get A-Rod with the 4th, 5th, or even 6th pick this year, but likely not much later. His .290, 113 R, 35 HR, 121 RBI, 15 SB season a year ago left a lot of people disappointed (mostly people who took him before Albert Pujols, and finished 9th in their 12-team league). Pujols is the consensus number one this year, but how many other people will go before Alex? Johan Santana is the closest thing to Pujols among starting pitchers; dominant and consistent. Jose Reyes seems like this year's trendy choice for his combination of speed, power and run-scoring ability. It's hard to ignore Ryan Howard's 58 HR and 149 RBI. Alfonso Soriano went 40-40 and joined a much better offensive team over the winter. And Chase Utley is a stud at a very thin position. Heck, A-Rod might not even be the first third baseman taken in your league. David Wright is awfully good (.311, 96, 26, 116, 20) and Miguel Cabrera is awfully good (.339, 112, 26, 114, 9) and the difference between those guys and A-Rod is they're 24, while he's 31.

#3. Mark Prior?
The mere mention of his name has become a question in and of itself. I know a lot of people have given up on this guy, and for good reason. Yes, he's been on the DL 8 times in 5 seasons. Yes, he went 1-6 with an ERA over 7.00 in 9 starts last season before the Cubs put him on dry-dock. But the ghost of 2003 still lingers in some owners' minds. He turns 27 in September, he says he's healthy, so far it looks like he's healthy, and if he is, and stays that way, look out. ESPN has him 233rd overall (after Anibel Sanchez, and before Daniel Cabrera) and MLB.com has him as the 48th best pitcher (after Scott Olsen and before Tim Hudson). Nobody knows how he'll fare in 2007, but I know this much, he'll either get taken way too early, or way too late in your league.

#2. When do all the rookies go, and how will they do?
Delmon Young, Alex Gordon, Troy Tulowitzki, Homer Bailey, Phillip Hughes, Chris Young (not the tall guy on the Padres), and Kevin Kouzmanoff...you'll probably hear all these names called on draft day. Some will be good, some will be really disappointing. The key is picking this year's Hanley Ramirez, rather than this year's Jeremy Hermida. Delmon Young is easily the most highly-touted of the group, and he probably won't disappoint, but for some reason I get the feeling that, like Prince Fielder last year, he's not going to deliver, relative to where you'll have to pick him. Fielder had a solid first season (.271, 28, 81) but you know how many other guys put up comparable numbers and went a lot later in the draft, simply because they aren't named Prince Fielder? I fear the same will be true of Young. Gordon is battling for KC's third base job, TT has shortstop locked up in Colorado which could afford him the opportunity to put up some good numbers, Bailey and Hughes are expected to be big-time contributors to the Reds and Yankees' pitching staffs in the future, Young has to beat out Eric Byrnes in Arizona but has 30-30 potential, and Kouzmanoff plays in San Diego (check minus). And before you point out the fact that I forgot the biggest rookie of 2007, please read on...

#1. How good is Daisuke Matsuzaka, really?
ESPN.com ran a really interesting story on the gyroball he allegedly throws, and how nobody can hit it. It's thrown kind of like a football, it's said to spin sideways like a bullet coming out of a gun, and the end result is an uber-slider that breaks down a foot, and up to three feet opposite arm side. I stumbled upon this blog and spent probably half an hour reading it and following his links. It's called "Matsuzaka Watch," and it's about Dice-K, and Dice-K alone. There's also an interesting CBS News piece on the gyroball , which I found through the ESPN E-Ticket piece. Anyway, the Sox spent boatloads to get him, Japanese pitchers don't exactly have a fantastic track record in the US (see Irabu, Hideki) and baseball writers' early reviews have been mixed. He's ranked 99th overall on ESPN (after Chad Cordero, before Alex Rios), and he's ranked 70th overall on MLB.com (after Michael Young, before Dan Haren). There's even a where to draft Matsuzaka article out there. I don't know what to think, honestly. I'm sure he'll probably go high in a lot of drafts just because of the elusive factor and because of what people are saying about him. But rookies, in general, go a lot higher than they should and there are probably much safer 5th and 6th round picks out there. It's just a question of whether you want to play it safe on draft day.