Tuesday, March 27, 2007

Show Some "Prior Restraint"

You might want to at your draft, because Lou Piniella and the Cubs are at the start of the season. Yes, Mark Prior may be one of the highest drafted minor leaguers on average (188th overall on ESPN, meaning he's a 15-19th round pick) in recent history. But his "not-in-the-rotation status" might enable you to snag him even later, if you think he's worth the risk later in the season.

Personally what surprises me, and I suppose speaks to the faith of the fantasy community, is the fact that he's still getting taken as the 41st starting pitcher overall. This means a lot of people are counting on him to be their #3 or #4 pitcher. My question is this. If you want to take a chance, why not go with a lefty who's full of promise like Chris Capuano (45th SP overall), a veteran on a good team who's done it before like Tom Glavine (47th SP overall), or a fire-baller who's starting to get it, like Daniel Cabrera (49th SP overall)? The potential rewards may not be as great, but the risks aren't nearly as high.

I know I've said I think Prior will have a bounce-back year, and I still think he will. I just don't think he should be taken before any of the guys I listed above. Look, if those guys are gone and Prior's around after the 21st round, he might be worth a shot. But let somebody else take him in round 15.

1 comment:

Brian said...

yeah, i got him in the 21st round, at which point most solid (and boring) pitchers were gone. i figured he had as much upside as anyone at that point in time.