MVP, AL - Alex Rodriguez (.298, 35, 103, 11)
These are good numbers for a whole season (and not all that different from the .290, 35, 121, 15 he put up last year) and yet he has all of August and September to pad them. Nobody's even close to him right now, despite the fact that he's in a slump.
MVP, NL - Jimmy Rollins (.296, 20, 65, 19)
This race is really wide open. This award is no longer Jose Reyes' to lose because, statstically speaking, he's the third best shortstop in the NL behind J-Roll and Hanley Ramirez, even though they are on second and fourth place teams. Chase Utley was having an MVP year, but he's on the shelf. Miguel Cabrera and Matt Holliday are also having great years, but their teams will likely be out of the race very soon. Eric Byrnes is having a great year for a contender, but c'mon, Eric Byrnes for MVP? Prince Fielder is another good player on a good team, but his July production was poor (3 homeruns, 11 RBI). With a strong last two months, Ryan Howard could walk away with this one again. But I'm going with Rollins here because of his rare combination of power and speed, the fact that he's leading the league in runs, and he's third in extra base hits. Plus, who doesn't like it when a guy misses the All-Star team, but wins the MVP?
Cy Young, AL - Erik Bedard (10, 175, 3.05, 1.09)
I know I've touched on this before, but nobody has really had a better year than Bedard so far. He leads baseball in strikeouts, his ERA and WHIP are fantastic, and the O's have cost him a few wins. I don't think he will win this award because there are too many other talented guys out there (Haren, Santana, Beckett, Sabathia) but if he keeps it up, he should.
Cy Young, NL - Jake Peavy (10-5, 2.41 ERA, 144 K's)
Chances are, a Padre is going to win this award, it's just a question of whether it's Peavy or Chris Young. But I give the edge to Peavy here because he has more K's, he's pitched more innings, and unlike Young, he's healthy (even though Young's isn't an arm injury). Peavy is also second in the NL (to Young) in ERA, second in the NL in quality start percentage (Brad Penny's number one) sixth in batting average against, fourth in on base percentage against, and second in OPS against (Young is leading the league in all those categories). Here's why I'm not a huge Young fan. He's pitched more than 6 innings just 11 times in his 20 starts. Peavy's done it 14 times in 21 starts. Young averages just under 6 innings pitched per start. Peavy averages almost 6 2/3 per start. To me, part of a pitcher's value is his ability to go deep into games, give his bullpen a rest, and give his team a chance to win- something Peavy does much better than Young.
ROY, AL - Jeremy Guthrie (7-3, 2.89 ERA, 88 K's)
Easy Sox fans. Dice-K's been good, but Guthrie's been better. If you look at Guthrie's numbers since becoming a starter, then extrapolate them out over 22 starts, which is how many Mr. Matsuzaka has made this year, here's how they compare: Guthrie would be 8-4, with a 2.44 ERA, .204 BAA, and 102 K's, while Dice-K is 12-8, with a 3.75 ERA, .244 BAA, and 142 K's. Guthrie also holds runners on much better than his opponent here. Wow, an Oriole winning Cy Young, and ROY. Maybe the future isn't so bleak in B-More after all.
ROY, NL - Ryan Braun (.347, 18, 50, 10)
With Hunter Pence hurt, this is as easy as AL MVP. Braun's numbers were already better across the board before HP went down. Now the difference is even more glaring, and Braun still has fewer at-bats and he's a few months younger than Pence. Maybe David Wright doesn't have third base at the All-Star game locked down for the next 10 years after all.
But then again, the Red Sox already had a bullpen that was second-to-none in baseball (Papelbon, Okajima, Timlin, Delcarmen, and the just-recently added Tavarez) before they added Eric Gagne.
Here's my question. Why did they need this guy? Granted they didn't give up a whole lot to get him (Gabbard, Murphy, and teen Engel Beltre) but I bet true, die hard, Sox fans would rather have seen a bona fide leadoff hitter coming their way than another arm (Kenny Lofton would have been nice, but he's back with the Tribe for a third time).
They're now averaging just over 6 runs a game in the second half thanks largely in part to a pair of 10+ run games against the White Sox, plus Cliff Lee and three games against the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. But guess what? The White Sox, Cliff Lee, and the D-Rays won't be around in October. The Sox are going to be up against pitchers like Verlander, Bonderman, Sabathia, Carmona, Lackey, Escobar, and if they're lucky, Maine, Pedro, Penny, Zambrano, Hudson, Smotlz, Peavy, or Webb.
Papi, Manny, Youk, and Lowell want to eat. But is Julio Lugo really the guy you want setting your table?
After a largely snoozer of a Monday slate, Tuesday is sure not to disappoint baseball fans.
Barry Bonds (who just turned 43 a week ago) is going for career homeruns 755 (and maybe even 756) in Los Angeles, against Cy Young front runner Brad Penny.
Alex Rodriguez, (who just turned 32 on Friday) is going for career homerun 500, at home against Jose Contreras and the White Sox.
And Tom Glavine (who just turned 41 back on March 25) is going for career win 300, in Milwaukee, against Jeff Suppan.
There's also that pesky trade deadline thing at 4 o'clock this afternoon, but I can't imagine we'll see any deals bigger than Mark Teixeira to the Braves
My prediction: none of the above three things happen, and despite a few relievers switching teams, the trade deadline comes and goes quietly. Stay tuned.
It appears Mark Teixiera is headed east and switching leagues. Personally, I love this move for the Atlanta Braves. They get another big bat in the heart of their order, plus veteran lefty reliever Ron Mahay to shore up their bullpen.
As for the Rangers, we'll see if they actually hold onto the players they acquired in this deal. Jarrod Saltalamacchia is a teriffic talent behind the plate, but was blocked in Hot Lanta by McCann. Elvis Andrus (what's with Braves prospects who can't spell Andrew, A-N-D-R-E-W?) is a raw, high-A shortstop who can fly, and field. Plus, at 18 years old, he's one of the youngest players in the Carolina League. Matt Harrison is a 6'4'', double-A lefty with good numbers (3.39 ERA, 1.30 WHIP 2.6 K:BB in 20 starts), and 19-year-old Rookie Ball righty, Neftali Feliz is a strikeout machine with a terrific fastball, but has been known to have command problems.
In the last few high-profile trades the Rangers have made though, they've been absolutely robbed. They gave A-Rod (and his contract) to the Yankees for Alfonso Soriano and Joaquin Arias (who's a career .289 hitter in almost 2,200 minor league at-bats, and is out for the season after undergoing shoulder surgery a few weeks ago). They promptly traded Soriano to the Washington Nationals for Brad Wilkerson, Terrmel Sledge, and Armando Gallaraga. Wilkerson hasn't been healthy and hasn't been good. Sledge was shipped to the Padres (more on that trade in a moment) and Gallaraga was pretty good in double-A (8-5, 3.95, 3.06 K:BB in 19 starts) and was just recently promoted to triple-A. Then there's the now-infamous "Adrian Gonzalez, Chris Young, and Terrmel Sledge to the Padres for Adam Eaton, Akinori Otsuka, and Billy Killian deal." Eaton threw 65 innings before getting hurt and heading to Philadelphia in 2007. Otsuka is a good reliever, who's been relegated to set-up duty this year, and Killian is a young catcher in the low-level minors who's now blocked by Saltalamacchia.
Add that all up and it means in the last three and a half years, the Rangers have traded Alex Rodriguez, Alfonso Soranio, Mark Teixeira, Adrian Gonzalez, Chris Young, Terrmel Sledge, and Ron Mahay, and only have Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Akinori Otsuka, Brad Wilkerson, Armando Gallaraga, Elvis Andrus, Matt Harrison, Joaquin Arias, Billy Killian, and Neftali Feliz to show for it. Repeat after me...eew.
If nothing else, this deal makes the NL East race interesting, because it gives the Braves a lineup that, while perhaps not as potent as the New York Mets', is a whole lot more competitive. Ideally, the Braves would go with:
LF Willie Harris
SS Edgar Renteria
3b Chipper Jones
1b Mark Teixeira
RF Jeff Francoeur
CF Andruw Jones
C Brian McCann
2b Kelly Johnson
while the Mets would counter with:
SS Jose Reyes2b Luis Castillo (also newly acquired)
CF Carlos Beltran
3b David Wright
1b Carlos Delgado
LF Moises Alou
RF Shawn Green
C Paul LoDuca
Atlanta is 4.5 out in the East and 2.5 back in the Wild Card, so the question is, does Tex (a Jim Biggs look-alike if you ask me) make the Braves a playoff team? I think it will be pitching, not offense, that determines the answer to that question.
Remember when Carlos Zambrano was bad? Really bad?! It wasn't that long ago- less than two months, in fact.
Back on June 2nd, the day after his fight with Michael Barrett, TO was 5-5 with a 5.62 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, and a 1.50 K:BB ratio for the season. Now, July 30th, he's leading baseball in wins with a 14-7 mark, 3.47 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and a 1.97 K:BB ratio. To get there he's had to go 8-2 with a 1.41 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, and a 2.48 K:BB ratio over his last 10 starts (yes, he has a decision in all of them).
It's no surprise TO's remarkable turnaround had coincided with the Cubs' miraculous turnaround. Lou's boys are now a half-game out in the Central, and they're baseball's best team since June 3nd (they're 33-17, good for a .660 winning percentage).
My only question is, why didn't Barrett push him around a few starts sooner?
So Cal Ripken Jr. and Tony Gwynn are officially members of Major League Baseball's Hall of Fame. An estimated 70,000 fans made the trip to Cooperstown today- the most ever for an induction ceremony. Both of their careers speak for themselves, so I'm not going to waste any time re-telling you statistics you already know. But what I find most interesting about this day and this induction class, dubbed by some as the "class act" class, is that both men spent their entire careers with one organization- something we will likely never see again at an induction ceremony where at least two players get in. And here's your proof.
First, let's talk about guys who are already eligible for the Hall, but didn't get in this year. They are: Rich Gossage, Jim Rice, Andre Dawson, Bert Blyleven, Lee Smith, Jack Morris, Mark McGwire, Tommy John, Dave Conception, Alan Trammell, Dave Parker, Don Mattingly, Dale Murphy, and Harold Baines. Of that group, only Rice, Conception, Trammell, and Mattingly played for one team. And given that Rice is the only player who got more than 14% of the vote this year (75% is needed for induction) the other guys are major long-shots.
Tim Raines is really the only player eligible for the first time in 2008 who warrants mentioning and he played for 6 teams.
The '09 class features guys like David Cone, Rickey Henderson, and Mo Vaughn, all of whom played for multiple teams.
2010 has Roberto Alomar, Andreas Gallaraga, Barry Larkin, Edgar Martinez, and Fred McGriff. Larkin and Martinez are the only two who wouldn't have to decide which hat to wear in their Hall plaque, and Larkin should get in. He was a 12-time All-Star, won 3 Gold Gloves, 9 Silver Sluggers, a World Series, an MVP, had 2,340 hits, 379 stolen bases, and hit .295. But Martinez has an uphill battle because he didn't play the field. There's no way he gets in on the first ballot.
The next year, 2011, has notables Jeff Bagwell, John Franco, Juan Gonzalez, Rafael Palmeiro, and Larry Walker. Bagwell is the only "one-teamer" on this list, and could have a tough time getting in just because his resume (Rookie of the Year, 1 MVP, 3 Silver Sluggers, 1 Gold Glove, 4 All-Star selections, 449 homeruns, 2314 hits, 202 steals, .297 batting average, .408 on-base percentage) may be classified as "great, but not exceptional" for a player in the 90's and 00's, where contraction, smaller parks, and the s-word inflated everybody's numbers. I think he'll get in eventually, but I don't see him getting 75% on his first try.
That brings us to active players. Craig Biggio immediately comes to mind as a first-ballot HOF'er who played for one team. John Smoltz may be a "one-team, first-ballot" guy. And if any two relievers from the current era deserve to get in, it's Trevor Hoffman and Mariano Rivera, both of whom are one-teamers as well (although Mo's a free agent at the end of the year).
After those guys, one-team-players nearing the end of Hall-worthy careers are few and far between. Barry Bonds, Sammy Sosa, Ken Griffey Jr., Frank Thomas, Mike Piazza, Ivan Rodriguez, Roger Clemens, Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, Pedro Martinez, and Randy Johnson have all played for at least two teams and they are, without a doubt, some of the best players of the 90's and early 00's (and in some cases, even the 80's). Fringe guys like Jeff Kent, Gary Sheffield, Jim Thome, Carlos Delgado, Mike Mussina and Curt Schilling are also out. So are Alex Rodriguez, Manny Ramirez, Vladimir Guerrero, and David Ortiz, even though they're nowhere near retirement.
Other guys who have a lot of career left, but are on the path to being one-team Hall-of-Famers include Ichiro Suzuki, Albert Pujols, and Derek Jeter, with guys like Johan Santana, Roy Oswalt, Todd Helton, Andruw Jones, and Chipper Jones as outside possibilities. But because they have so much career left, it's hard to say how many of them will actually stay with their current teams, or continue on a Hall of Fame pace.
Long story short, Gwynn and Ripken are the last of a dying breed in many ways, and it's a real shame for the game of baseball.
Dear Sir,
It's not cool to throw at All-Stars. It never has been, and never will be. They're good. You're not. People pay to see them play, whereas they're forced to see you play. The only reason you are even in the big leagues right now is because you're on a team that has the worst starting pitching in baseball. You are their 12th different starter this season and would still be in triple-A on the other 29 teams in the league.
I know you said the pitches to Chase Utley and Ryan Howard just "got away from you" but I find it curious that two pitches just happened to "get away from you" in the heart of an order that was 3-4 with a homerun and 3 RBI at that point in the game. Way to get ejected in your big league debut.
Sincerely,
Everybody Who Has Chase Utley And His Broken Hand On Their Fantasy Team
Here we are in late July, with the playoff chase starting to take shape, and some interesting things happening in several divisions. First, for the record, here is how I predicted things would shake out, back on February 12. I had the Red Sox, Tigers, Angels, Mets, Cubs, and Dodgers winning their respective divisions with the Indians and Phillies taking their league's Wild Card spots. As of today the Red Sox, Tigers, Angels, Mets, Brewers, and Dodgers are winning their respective divisions with the Indians and Padres the Wild Card front runners (the Cubs are 2 back of the Brewers in the Central and the Phillies are 2 back of the Pads for the Wild Card).
So in my opinion, here are the races to watch the last 62 games of the season...
AL, Boston and New York, Who Wins The Division?
Probably could have written this one back on Opening Day, but the reality is, reports of the Yankees' demise are premature. They're 10 over .500 now, their pitching is starting to click, they get Jason Giambi and Phil Hughes back soon (thus bringing an official end to "The Kei Igawa Era") they're 12-3 in the second half, and they've shaved 8 games off the Sox lead in less than two months. There are still about two months left and they train by 6.5. You do the math...this ain't over.
AL, Detroit and Cleveland, Who Gets The Wild Card?
I think both these teams are postseason-bound, it's just a question of who finishes stronger. It should be Detroit since their rock-steady bullpen (Zumaya, Rodney) is starting to get healthy and they've managed to stay in the mix (and atop the division) during that time. I suppose if the Yankees stay hot, that could mean one of these teams gets in and another doesn't, but that remains to be seen. One cause for concern in Motown...Magglio is hitting .289 with a .796 OPS in July. One cause for concern for the Tribe...this juggernaut offense is averaging less than 4.5 runs per game in the second half.
NL, Milwaukee, Chicago, Los Angeles, San Diego, Arizona, Atlanta, Philadelphia, Who Ends Up Where?
The Mets will win the East, but that's about all that's certain right now in the senior circuit. The Cubs have gained 5.5 games on the Brew Crew since June 2, and Lou's boys are now 2 back. In the West, any given night the Dodgers, Padres, and D-Backs can leap-fog one another and the Braves and Phillies could both play spoiler. Of the 7 teams listed above, 3 will make it, 4 won't. It will probably come down to pitching and injuries. The Brewers miss Ben Sheets badly, the Cubs are getting healthy, the Dodgers' staff is banged up too, San Diego has the best arms in the game, the D-Backs would love to get the Big Unit back for the last two months, the Braves have 3 dependable starters, but after that it gets hairy and the Phillies may have one of the worst pitching staffs in the game. I still like the Cubs to take the Central, but don't be surprised to see San Diego win the West, and the Wild Card is anybody's guess. It should be a fun last 62 games!
Lots of news from some of baseball's graybeards today. First, Barry Bonds celebrated his 43rd birthday, homerlessly, last night against the Atlanta Braves. He's now 2-14 since last week's two-homer-game against the Cubs (remember he was 0-21 before connecting on numbers 752 and 753, July 19). Also, commissioner Bud Selig, who's just happy not to have his highest-paid player indicted on federal dogfighting charges or have one of his umpires charged with gambling on games, now says he will try to be in attendance when Bonds passes Hank Aaron on the all-time-homerun list. Thanks Bud, what the hell took you so long? And The New York Times is reporting the BALCO chemist who essentially manufactured the undetectable steroid known as "the clear," claims both Bonds and Gary Sheffield used his illegal performance-enhancing drugs. According to the now infamous leaked grand jury testimony, both players have denied knowingly taking anything. This is all from a "Costas Now" interview on HBO Sports, which aired last night, and I imagine will air again soon.
Next, 41-year-old Craig Biggio is calling it a career at the end of 2007. The 7-time All-Star and 4-time Gold Glove winner joined the 3,000 hit club late last month. He's also one of just 7 players in big league history with 3,000 hits and 400 stolen bases. Oh, by the way, he did it all with one team. Biggio said he wants to leave on his own accord, and thinks he accomplished just about all he could during his 20 seasons. He's right, and he'll have a spot in Cooperstown in 5 years. Just for good measure, his 6th inning grand slam last night helped lift the 'Stros over the Dodgers, 7-4.
While Biggio is definitely hanging them up, 43-year-old Randy Johnson is hinting he might do the same thing. He threw to batters for the first time in almost a month yesterday after being diagnosed with a herniated disc in his back. Instead of surgery, he opted for rehab, which is working so well for Lindsay Lohan. Johnson and Manager Bob Melvin said he threw well, but it's this quote from the Big Unit that has people curious. "I think everybody in this clubhouse, maybe not the players but the coaching staff and front office, would like to know, and I would like to know, whether I'm going to be able to pitch and help this organization," he said. "If not, I think that I need to take care of things and they would need to take care of things." Hmmm. We could know more later today or tomorrow based on how stiff and sore he says he feels. Remember, Johnson is 16 wins shy of 300 for his career and may be the best shot out of any active pitcher (young and healthy, or old and on his last legs) to reach the milestone after...
...41-year-old Tom Glavine, who takes his second crack at number 299 tonight, at home, against the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Pirates are bad (41-57) and their lineup is weak (second to last in baseball in runs, 28th in OPS, 25th in average) but Tommy Gun's opponent is no joke. Tom Gorzelanny is 9-3 with a 3.20 and is fresh off a hard-luck loss against the Astros. Meantime, Glavine is coming off his shortest outing of the season (2 innings) and is trying to keep his already poor season from going further down the tubes. His monthly ERA totals have gotten progressively worse since the season started (2.80 in April, 4.03 in May, 5.83 in June, 6.26 in July) and by my estimates, he has 12 starts left after tonight to get to 300. He'll get there eventually, but it might not be pretty.
A memorabilia company in New York (shocker) is suing David Ortiz for $1 million dollars because they claim he didn't sign enough autographs and violated an exclusivity deal by doing signings with other big companies. I have bought a few items from this company, Steiner Sports, because even though their stuff is very expensive, you at least know it's real. And if what they are claiming in their suit is true, it kind of makes me like Ortiz a lot less.
A Steiner spokesman claims Ortiz would regularly miss scheduled "meet-and-greet" signings, among other things. I still remember when I was about 12 years old, my parents drove me up to a card show in Pennsylvania for my birthday so I could meet Rickey Henderson and get his signature, except he didn't show up. They gave us our money back and I still had fun buying other stuff, but I was definitely disappointed because Rickey Henderson was one of my favorite players at the time. I'm pretty sure I wore bright green Mizuno wrist bands in one of my elementary school class pictures in honor of Rickey (most likely before the incident I just described).
It's too bad that (some) athletes forget what it was like before they were big time, when they just regular kids who looked up to, and admired pro athletes. Forget about fulfilling your contract obligations with some rich, fat, sweaty, card show guy. Show up and do your meet-and-greets for the kids who wear your t-shirt, have your poster, and whose parents take them to your games. Everything doesn't always have to be about money.
While I have devoted a great deal of time to chronicling the Baltimore Orioles efforts, futile as they might be, to avoid a 10th straight losing season, I have largely neglected a team that is not much better this year, and seems to be approaching a dubious mark themselves, the Oakland Athletics. This team has not had a losing season since 1998, but is now just 30 losses away from finishing below .500 (and possibly last in the AL West).
This year, the A's have Dan Haren, and that's about it. Rich Harden is hurt (again). Eric Chavez and Bobby Crosby have struggled mightily (again). Their bullpen (Huston Street and Justin Duchscherer specifically) has been an injured mess. Nick Swisher, who had such a promising 2006, has regressed big time. And Mike Piazza is not this year's Frank Thomas.
As has become a seemingly annual tradition, they've still enjoyed several "out of nowhere" performances from guys like Alan Embree (10 saves), Jack Cust (17 homeruns), Chad Gaudin (8 wins, 3.35 ERA), and Santiago Casilla (0.70 ERA in 20 appearances). But even with those contributions, this team is not close to being competitive, even though this is usually the time of year when the A's get healthy and get hot. Last night, they were shutout for the 5th time this season, they're fresh off a 9-game-losing streak that spanned parts of both halves, and they're 5-13 in the month of July.
What's ironic is that their trademark pitching and defense has been just as good as it was a year ago, when they won 93 games and the division. Their .985 fielding percentage is 11th best in baseball (it was .986 last year, good for 3rd overall), and their staff ERA (3.73) is best in the league and second best in baseball (it was 4.21 in 2006).
The problem this year is that the offense is a little worse and the bullpen is much worse. After blowing just 20 saves all of last year, they've blown 15 already in '07 (only three teams have blown more) and they're tied with (ironically) the Orioles for the 5th worst save conversion percentage at 58%. As far as the hitters are concerned, no American League team has scored fewer runs (they were 16th last year), their .249 team average is 5th worst in baseball (it was .260 in '06) and they're still doing nothing to manufacture runs. They're 26th in stolen bases (23rd a year ago), dead last in sacrifice bunts (27th last year) and have hit into 98 double plays, worst in baseball for the second straight year.
Add that up, and it explains why they're 11.5 out in the West and 12 back of the Wild Card. It turns out the difference between going 93-69 versus 76-86 isn't very big. It's just that all the games the A's won 4-3 last year, they're losing 3-2 this year.
He also has a pretty fantastic story and he's going to get the chance to prove he belongs in the Red Sox starting rotation tomorrow night in Cleveland.
Jon Lester, as many baseball fans know, was diagnosed with cancer 11 months ago. Luckily it was a treatable form of lymphoma, known as anaplastic large cell lymphoma. So after a very promising 2006 campaign where he started off 5-0, his season came to an abrupt and frightening end. He underwent treatment from September all the way through the end of December, when doctors pronounced him "cancer-free." He's spent the last 7 months getting himself back into baseball shape. And now, this 23-year-old, who is still considered a top prospect, has a renewed outlook on life.
"Before, I took everything very seriously when it came to baseball. It's what I do, and it's my job," he said. "Now that I've realized it can be taken away, I'm definitely going to enjoy things a little more, not take the little things so seriously, just go out and enjoy them."
Manager Terry Francona openly admits he's going to be pulling for Lester Monday night.
"I wouldn't apologize to be crazy about a kid like Lester -- I'd be crazy not to," he said.
And I'd be willing to bet he's not the only one.
As bad as the Baltimore Orioles are (43-52, 13.5 out of 1st, 31 losses away from guaranteeing a 10th straight losing season), it's probably time we start to recognize Erik Bedard as one of the truly elite pitchers in the game right now. This season, it's guys like Dan Haren, Jake Peavy, Chris Young, Johan Santana (again), Brad Penny, Josh Beckett, and John Lackey who've been getting most of the praise. But with the exception of wins (again, see "Orioles, bad") Bedard's numbers are just as good, if not better than all those other guys.
First, let's talk about strikeouts. Bedard's 167 are best in the bigs. You heard that right, better than Santana, better than Peavy. He wiffed 11 Oakland Athletics last night (not that that's a particularly difficult thing to do right now) and gave up just one hit. It was also his 5th 10+ strikeout outing this season. Peavy has 4 (all in a row). Santana has 3. His 4.07 K:BB ratio is 8th best in baseball, better than Peavy, Haren, Lackey, and Young as well.
He's not getting all his outs by strikeouts, but he is getting lots of outs. Opponents are hitting .211 against him. That's 5th best in baseball. And that's better than Peavy, Beckett, Penny and Lackey. His OPS against is just .618, 4th best in baseball, and better than Santana, Penny, Beckett, and Lackey. And his 1.08 WHIP is 8th best in baseball, with Penny, Beckett, and Lackey lagging behind.
Next, let's talk about overall pitching performance. Even though he has only 9 wins, Bedard has 15 quality starts. Only Haren, Penny, and Peavy have more. His ERA is 3.12, 13th best in baseball (and still better than Lackey and Beckett). But can you imagine how much better it would be if it wasn't for Bedard's 6.09 ERA in the month of April? He gave up nearly half of his season's earned runs (23 of 47) in those 6 starts. In his 15 starts since, he is 6-2 with a 2.12 ERA, and 0.92 WHIP. And in his last 3 starts specifically, his numbers look like he's a softball pitcher for the University of Arizona- 3-0, 0.39 ERA, 0.48 WHIP, 12.9 K/9 and a silly .079 batting average against.
Bedard probably won't win more than 15 or 16 games this year (by my conservative estimate, the O's have already cost him at least 3). And he probably won't win the Cy Young either. But at the end of the year his numbers will be right on par with some of the best arms in the game and provided he can stay healthy, he won't be a well-kept secret much longer.
Yesterday, Barry Bonds took two pretty big steps forward in his quest to break Hank Aaron's all-time homerun record, snapping an 0-21 drought with career bombs 752 and 753 in Chicago. Two more jacks- he's tied. And with three more- the record, clouded by suspicion though it will be, is his.
On the other side of the milestone spectrum, the New York Mets spotted Tom Glavine a 6-spot in the top of the first, and gave him 3 more in the top of the third in LA, but he was pulled after just 2 innings, 68 pitches, 10 hits, and 4 earned, thus disqualifying him for his 299th carer win. The Mets ended up winning a barnburner, 13-9.
Both of these future Hall of Famers face difficult roads ahead in their quests for their respective statistical achievements. Bonds openly admits when he sees the umpire give the pitcher the new, special "Barry Bonds homerun baseball" it gets in his head (and in his defense, how would it not get in your head?). And Glavine, sad as it is to say, is seemingly at the end of the road, stuff-wise. He will almost certainly finish with a 4.00+ ERA this season for just the 5th time in 20 full seasons. And he's flirting with a career-worst in ERA, set back in 1988 with the Braves when he posted a 4.56 mark (ignoring the 50 innings he threw in his rookie season). I submit as further proof his increasing walk totals and his decreasing strikeout totals.
There's enough season left that barring injury, both of these 40-plus-ers should be able to reach their marks this year. But the question now is, who's going to have a tougher time, Bonds or Glavine?
Conventional wisdom would say it's a whole lot easier for a slugger to hit 3 homeruns than it is for a good pitcher to win 2 games. An everyday player, and Bonds is almost one these days, has an opportunity to hit a homerun with every plate appearance, whereas a starting pitcher like Glavine only has a chance to pick up a win every fifth team game. Plus, hitting a homerun requires the batter to have one good swing, one time, whereas to get a win, a pitcher needs to work at least 5 innings, have his team score more runs than he's allowed, and the bullpen can't squander the lead. In other words, Barry Bonds doesn't need to rely on his teammates at all to hit a homerun, whereas Tom Glavine very much needs to rely on his teammates to get a win.
But we're not talking about any 3 homeruns, or any 2 wins. We're talking about 756 and 300. And that, to me, is where this argument gets interesting. With each homerun Bonds hits, the pressure, attention, and scrutiny will intensify exponentially. That simply won't happen for Glavine. Sure it will be the story when he gets to 299, and each subsequent time he goes for 300, but it won't even be a story on the 4 other days he doesn't pitch. He can rest mentally those days and focus on baseball only. But Bonds will get no reprieve. If he plays tonight and hits one, everybody will start to ask him about 755. If he plays and doesn't hit one, everybody will ask him about 754. And if he doesn't play, everybody will ask him when he will play again, so he can hit 754. The reason for all this is because nobody's been where Barry is trying to go, whereas 22 pitchers have been where Glavine is trying to go. It won't be long before ESPN starts breaking into its regular programming to bring the world Barry Bonds' latest at-bat live, as he goes for history. This will happen for every single one of his at-bats, until he gets to 756. You can bet the same will not happen for Glavine.
So while I think Bonds will hit his 3 before Glavine wins his 2, I think Bonds will have a much tougher time getting there. And with each homerless at-bat, it will only get more difficult. What's interesting about these two statistical quests though is the fact that it's no sure bet we'll ever see 756 or 300 again.
Among hitters, Sammy Sosa and Ken Griffey Jr. are the two closest, but I don't think either of these guys has another 150 jacks in them, given their proximity to 40. And at age 39, Frank Thomas most certainly does not have another 250 in him. A still-31-year-old Alex Rodriguez is the best bet, but like "The Big Hurt," he's only about two-thirds of the way to Bonds, and Bonds is still playing. Jim Thome (36, 487), Manny Ramirez (35, 484), Gary Sheffield (38, 477), and Carlos Delgado (35, 423) all seem like locks for 500, but not necessarily 600. Realistically, that leaves Andruw Jones (30, 361) and Vladimir Guerrero (32, 352) both of whom aren't even halfway there yet.
The prospects are even more bleak among pitchers. Does 43-year-old Randy Johnson have 16 more wins in him? Personally, I don't think he does. If you look at his struggles to stay healthy this season, there's no sure bet he'll pick up 4 or 5 more wins in 2007, meaning he would have to win more than 10 if he returns in 2008. It won't matter because he's a Hall of Famer even without 300 on his resume. But if Johnson doesn't get to 300, it could be a long time before anyone else does. Mike Mussina (38) needs 57 more wins. That won't happen. David Wells (44) needs 65...zippy chance. Same story for Jamie Moyer (44, 223), Curt Schilling (40, 213), Kenny Rogers (42, 210), and John Smoltz (40, 202). If 35-year-old Pedro Martinez didn't have a 50-year-old right arm and body, his 206 wins would be a good bet to turn into 300, but now it doesn't look so good. And after Andy Pettitte (35, 191), and Bartolo Colon (34, 146), the only four pitchers under 35 with at least 120 wins are Tim Hudson (31, 129), Kevin Milwood (32, 129), Livan Hernandez (32, 128), and Jason Schmidt (34, 128). Then you get into mega-projection territory with guys like Roy Oswalt (29, 106), Roy Halladay (30, 105), Mark Buehrle (28, 104), CC Sabathia (26, 94), and Johan Santana (28, 89).
So whether you like them or hate them, cheer on Bonds and Glavine as they go for the record books. It could be the last time we see something like this ever again.
Can anyone help this team find it's "O?" Last night, they fell to Odalis Perez and the pesky Kansas City Royals, 6-5. It's their 7th loss in their last 10 games. Since the break, they're averaging just over 4 runs a game and haven't hit double-digits in runs since July 5. Oh by the way, the Yankees are 8-2 over that same time period and are now an uncomfortably close 7 games out with nearly 70 games left. Additionally, the Tigers, Phillies, Indians, Yankees, and Rangers have all outscored the Sox on the season and they no longer boast the best record in baseball. They are an unimpressive 7th in the AL in homeruns, and 5th in average (although they're 1st in on-base percentage and 2nd in OPS).
What's so surprising about most of those numbers is the fact that, on paper, this lineup should be one of, if not the most potent in baseball. Since the break, JD Drew and Coco Crisp have been sharing time in the leadoff spot as Julio Lugo ties to put more distance between himself and the Mendoza line. But after the black hole to start the game, you have surprising rookie Dustin Pedroia (.316, .397 OBP), Big Papi and Manny (whose power numbers aren't quite up to par, but are still the best right/left combo in baseball), Kevin Youkilis (.313, .407 OBP), Mike Lowell (who's actually the team leader in RBI), then Drew or Crisp followed by Jason Varitek (who's enjoying a nice bounce-back season), and Lugo (who's hitting .383 in July).
In my opinion, they need to find a leadoff hitter and they need to do it soon if they want to get out of this funk. I can say right now, the answer ain't JD Drew. He's hitting .264 with a .344 OBP leading off for the Sox, which is lower than, but not that far from his career numbers in any spot in the order (.284/.390). Coco hasn't fared much better in the 1-hole this year (.286, .342) and his career numbers are worse than Drew's, even though he's much more of a prototypical leadoff hitter, as someone who can switch-hit, and run.
Ichiro signing with the M's hurts for sure. He would have been the perfect quick fix. Now, Boston needs to find themselves a table-setter (Lugo? Youkilis? Jacoby Ellsbury? Kenny Lofton?), or else these last 6 games with the Yankees (August 28-30 and September 14-16) could mean a whole lot more to both teams than everyone thought a month ago.
It's not often that a guy goes from "can't-miss prospect," to "never-was" to "might be after all" in a span of six seasons, 5 teams and fewer than 2,000 at-bats. But that's exactly what's happened, apparently, to Tampa Bay first baseman Carlos Pena.
A highly-touted player in the Texas Ranger organization, he was acquired by the Oakland A's in a trade before the 2002 season, and first base was given to him, ostensibly, for the next 10 years. But he didn't hit (.218, 7, 16 in 125 AB), the A's didn't win, and they shipped him off to Detroit in a multi-team deal. This is usually not a good sign for a blue-chipper to be on a third club before his 200th at-bat, but the Tigers were optimistic. They waited, and waited, and waited. But with the exception of two marginally productive seasons in '03 and '04, were rewarded with virtually nothing for their patience. Pena had a mid-season cup of coffee with Boston last year but wasn't a great fit there, either. So the D-Rays signed him, back on April Fool's Day. Now, it's the rest of the league that's looking silly.
At 29 years old, Pena is one of the Rays' elder statesmen. I don't know if it's the steady diet of Florida orange juice, the green jerseys, or hitting behind Brendan Harris, but Carlos Pena is, for the first time in his career, Carlos Pena. After today's homerun against the Yankees, he is now 6 away from toping his career-best (with almost an entire second half to go). He's tied with Gary Sheffield for third in the AL in homers. He's also hitting .292, which is almost 50 points above his career average. His strikeout to walk ratio is below 2:1 for the first time ever, and his name should be mentioned among the best first basemen in the league, this year.
I'll admit, I was skeptical for a long time. "He isn't this good, it's Carlos Pena, for God's sake," I uttered more than once, all the while reaping the statistical benefits of his breakout year on my fantasy team. And even though the flaws are there (just 10 for 50 against lefties, still striking out once every 3.5 AB, never had 500 AB in a season), there are some awfully encouraging signs, too (OPS over 1.000, OBP of nearly .400, better numbers on the road than at home, hitting .350 this month after a .250 month of June).
Whether Pena has finally found a home, remains to be seen. His name has been mentioned numerous times in trade rumors , although the Rays claim they're not moving him. But right now, it looks like Carlos Pena, might be Carlos Pena after all...just 5 years later.
Yes, we're a little more than halfway home and more importantly, the finest All-Star festivities in all of pro sports are just days away, so I'd like to give out my first-half awards now if I may, with the understanding that I missed the "end of July" awards on purpose.
MVP, AL - Alex Rodriguez (.319, 29, 82, 9)
You really can't go wrong here with A-Rod or Magglio Ordonez, but for me it was #13's stellar June, after a simply silly April that gets him my vote. He's on a pace to flirt with 60 homeruns and 160 RBI, while hitting over .300, and oh by the way, he might end up with 20 steals too. Ordonez may be the trendier pick here because the Tigers aren't 36 games out of first in their division, and he's hitting .370, but A-Rod's crushing him in every other category (including "I got it's").
MVP, NL - Prince Fielder (.282, 27, 66)
This is where I make no sense. Because with this pick, I am definitely going with the best player on a good, if-not-surprising team, over some arguably better players on non-contenders (i.e. Magglio over A-Rod). Yes, Matt Holliday, Chase Utley, and Hanley Ramirez have had fantastic seasons. But if you look at what the Crown Prince of Fielder (CPOF) has done for the middle of the Milwaukee order, he is one of the main reasons they're so good. Let's put it this way, CPOF still has fewer than a thousand career AB's and he's already better than his daddy. By the way, remember when Jose Reyes was running away with this award, both literally and figuratively? His monthly steal totals have gone from 17 to 12 to 10 and his runs scored totals have nose-dived from 26 to 16 to 13. The scary part is, he may still steal 80 bags and score 120 times.
Cy Young, AL - Dan Haren (10-3, 2.30, 101 K)
There are certainly plenty of qualified applicants for this particular honor (Beckett, Sabathia, Lackey, Verlander, Santana) but Haren gets the award because even after two so-so starts, his ERA is still almost half the league average. Realistically, DH should have at least 13 wins at this point, which would make him come to mind as quickly as the other five guys, one of whom will likely get the nod to start the All-Star game, over the most deserving hurler.
Cy Young, NL - Jake Peavy (9-3, 2.19 ERA, 125 K)
Peavy's only real competition for this award comes on his own team, where Chris "Right Hook" Young and Trevor "Closing Time" Hoffman have had fine seasons. But Peavy's been better all year. Forget about the 4-straight 10+ K starts, he's had the dealer's vest on all season and after a sub-par 2006, he really looks like he's ready to be a year-in, year-out stud for the rest of this decade, and the early part of the next one too. He just turned 26 too.
ROY, AL - Daisuke Matsuzaka (10-5, 3.53 ERA, 119 K)
I've heard more than one person marvel at the fact that, despite all the hype surrounding Dice-K this spring, he's still managed to have a really good, under-the-radar season. And those people are right because if he puts together a July, August, and September that are somewhere between his April and June (and far from his May), he'll get a whole lot of votes for Cy Young too. In his last 6 starts, he's lowered his ERA by 1.30, he hasn't allowed more than 2 runs in any given start, and he's recorded either 8 or 9 strikeouts. Granted that's been against Oakland, Arizona, San Francisco, San Diego, Seattle and Tampa Bay, but it's still progress. The real test, in my opinion, will be in late August or early September when he starts to enter 210, 215, 220 innings pitched territory. Will he hold up? If he doesn't, Jeremy Guthrie, Reggie Willits or Delmon Young if he has a big second half could just swoop in and steal this award. Stay tuned.
ROY, NL - Ryan Braun (.342, 10, 31, 8)
Perhaps I'm a little biased because I have this guy on every one of my fantasy teams, but c'mon...he's sweet. He runs, he hits, he hits for power, and he has the CPOF protecting him, so what's not to like? At the end of the year, I wouldn't be surprised if he's in .310, 25, 80 territory with 20 steals. However if Braun falters or gets hurt, Hunter Pence will gladly walk away with the award. The reason I give the edge to Brawny here is because Pence's numbers are virtually identical, but he's had 100 more AB's, plus Pence's 5 to 1 strikeout to walk ratio may be cause for concern (Braun's is 3 to 1). It's really a shame the Brew Crew doesn't have any good, young players.
Manager Of The Year, AL - Terry Francona, Boston Red Sox
Ho hum, best record in baseball, an 11-game lead in the division, likely the team to beat in the postseason, and all without Manny, Papi, or Schilling contributing as significantly as the have in years past. Give him credit for sticking with Dustin Pedroia at second, after an awful April, and for turning Hideki Okajima into the best setup man in the game. It also wasn't a bad idea to keep Papelbon in the bullpen and relegate Joel Pineiro to mop-up duty.
Manager Of The Year, NL - Ned Yost, Milwaukee Brewers
Whatever he's selling, the Brewers are buying and he has a young, talented team clicking. They quietly have the best record in the National League and even after their recent surge, a comfortable lead over the Cubs. Moving Dave Bush back to the starting rotation seems to have worked, he's straightened out what was a nightmarish bullpen situation last year, and he's letting Corey Hart and Ryan Braun blossom. Well done.
LVP, AL - Jermaine Dye (.214, 12, 39)
Dye seems to be an appropriate name for a man who leads baseball's most anemic offense. Most people predicted he wouldn't repeat last year's career bests of 44 dingers and 120 RBI, but this year he's not even on pace to hit 25 or drive in 80. Plus his average is the third lowest in the American League, behind Julio Lugo and Nick Punto. Say it with me now...eeeeeew.
LVP, NL - Pat Burrell (.209, 10, 36)
I have a hard time believing the Phillies couldn't get better production out of "Joe Triple-A Outfielder" and do so at a fraction of the cost (Burrell's making $13.25M this season, tops on the team). Pat the Pop-Up has the second lowest batting average in the NL, he's tied for 30th in homeruns...among outfielders...and has fewer RBI than Ichiro, Jason Kubel, and Julio Lugo (who only has 56 hits all year!). Want an even crazier stat? Burrell has more walks (58) than strikeouts (57). I have no idea how given his lack of production, but there you go. Either way, he turns 31 in October, he's never hit .285 in a season, never topped 37 homeruns, and never driven in 120. Anybody know how he got the nickname "Pat the Bat" in the first place?
In this post, I want to talk about my weekend trip to Vermont, and Centennial Field, once home to my Vermont Expos, now the Vermont Lake Monsters.
As many of you know, I kept a diary during my brief-but-eventful career as a pro baseball player and I recently turned it into a book, which is available on Amazon. I made the trip up to Burlington to do a book signing at the ballpark before, during, and after the games Friday and Saturday nights against the Lowell Spinners.
I had a blast being up there again, seeing my old host family (Sandy and Onnie Matthews), and seeing some familiar faces (particularly my old clubhouse manager, referred to as the colorful "Gil" in my book). But at the same time, it was kind of a bittersweet trip. Being down on the field just before I threw out the first pitch of Friday night's game, it reminded me of how much fun it was to compete, to be in uniform, and to be revered by the thousands of fans who happened to be there on any given night. I just hope the current players on Vermont recognize how good they have it.
While I was there, I gave the Matthews a signed book to give to my former roommate there, the Yankees' Darrell Rasner. They tell me he's been waiting to read it for years, and will be thrilled once he gets it. I have to laugh when I picture him thumbing through it, sitting in the Yankees' locker room as A-Rod, Derek Jeter, and Roger Clemens walk by.
