And So It Begins...

It's baseball season.

Not just in Japan. Not just in China, Mexico, or another country that isn't spelled A-M-E-R-I-C-A. It's baseball season here, and that's exciting. That's not to say that I object to teams playing regular season games overseas, because I don't. It just makes me a little jealous. But it also makes me feel quite comforted to know that after a tumultuous offseason, the next 7 months will be about walk-offs and wild pitches, not steroids and subpoenas (that said, I did just buy Jose Canseco's new book, although I haven't started reading it yet).

Among today's 14 games, we'll see Johan Santana's New York Mets debut, Erik Bedard's Seattle Mariners debut, Joe Torre's Los Angeles Dodgers debut, and Joe Girardi's New York Yankees debut (along with the last-ever home opener at Yankee Stadium). There are potential pitchers' duels between Brandon Webb and Aaron Harang in Cinncinnati, Roy Oswalt and Jake Peavy in San Diego, and Ben Sheets and Carlos Zambrano in Chicago. We'll get a first look at the new-look, high-octane Detroit offense.

And if last night's US opener (complete with a new ballpark, Presidential first-pitch, and walk-off homerun) is any indicator, this season is going to be another memorable one.

Rich Predictions, With Conditions

Much to the delight of Oakland fans, and to fantasy owners who took a chance on the oft-injured #40, Rich Harden dazzled in his first start of 2008, limiting the Red Sox to one run (a Manny Ramirez dinger...p.s. this guy is going to have a huge '08) over six innings. He also struck out 9 and earned the win, as the A's split with Boston in Japan.

I know I've said in the past that I think Oakland will lose upwards of 90 games, and I'm not prepared to go back on that after their 1-1 start. But I'm am prepared to make a bold, if not condition-laden, prediction.

#1 If Harden can have a full season (he's never made 32 starts or thrown 190 innings, but based on the fragment seasons he's put together as a starter since 2003, his projected numbers over 34 starts would be...203 IP, 188 K, 88 BB, 1.27 WHIP, .218 BAA... his projected 14-8 record and 3.64 ERA seems conservative based on the other numbers)...

#2 If Bobby Crosby can play in 150 games (he's averaged 106 in each of the last 4 seasons so don't hold your breath)...

#3 If another hitter comes out of nowhere, a-la Frank Thomas '06 and Jack Cust '07, and has a surprise season (Emil Brown appears to be the early front runner with his homerun and 4 RBI through two games)...

#4 If they get contributions from "The Gonzalezes" this year (outfielder Carlos was acquired from Arizona in the Dan Haren trade, is drawing Carlos Beltran comparisons, and is Baseball America's #22 overall prospect; lefthanded pitcher Gio was acquired from the White Sox in the Nick Swisher trade, led the minors in K's last year and is BA's #26 prospect)...

#5 If LA's pitching injuries persist (John Lackey's already out for the first month, and Kelvim Escobar's career may be over)...

#6 And if Seattle's pitching falls apart (Erik Bedard and Felix Hernandez, while full of promise, are not Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling circa 2001, just yet)...

...then the A's could be in the hunt for October all season long. Then again, if very few of the 6 big if's don't pan out, they'll likely battle it out with Texas for the AL West doormat. We'll know more 160 games from now.

Huston, We Have A Problem

Major League Baseball's regular season is underway in Japan, and it's off to a start Oakland A's closer Huston Street would like to forget. He blew the save in the 9th when he gave up Brandon Moss' first career homerun, a game-tying shot. Then in the 10th, he gave up a 2-run double to Manny Ramirez (Manny's second of the game) and Oakland went on to lose 6-5.

While I'm bashing Street, Jonathan Papelbon's debut in the Far East was nothing to write home about either. He nearly blew the save himself in the bottom of the 10th, allowing a run-scoring double to Emil Brown (Oakland's version of Manny Ramirez, I'm sad to say). The A's actually had the tying run on second and the winning run on first when JP got Kurt Suzuki to ground out, bringing an end to the ballgame.

Game 2 is tomorrow at 6:05 A.M. Eastern and it's an intriguing starting pitching matchup...Jon Lester for the Sox, Rich Harden for the A's. Oakland is still considered the "home" team for that one. After that, the next real game is March 30 when the Braves visit the Nats' new stadium on ESPN's Sunday Night Baseball. And on Monday, there are 14 regular season games.

Other performances of note from today's game...

Jack Cust, 0-4, 4 K's

Jason Varitek, 0-4, 3 K's

Travis Buck, 0-5, 2 K's

Daric Barton, 0-2, 3 BB, 2 R

Jack Hannahan, 2-4, HR, 2 RBI

Dice-K, 5 IP, 2 ER, 5 BB, 6 K's

Good!

This seems about right.

Why People Hate The New York Yankees

"It's just disheartening. It's spring training. I just don't understand. I told all my players to play hard, but when you do something like that you take your chances that you will get someone hurt."

That's what new, New York Yankees manager Joe Girardi said four days ago after a play at the plate where Tampa Bay second baseman Elliot Johnson plowed into Yankees' catcher Francisco Cervelli in the 9th inning (starters no longer in the game), breaking Cervelli's wrist and sidelining him 8-10 weeks in the process. If you've never heard of Johnson or Cervelli before, there's good reason. Combined, they have zero at-bats in the bigs. Johnson just turned 24 and Cervelli just turned 22. Neither were expected to make the team's opening day rosters.

Don Zimmer immediately responded to Girardi's comments, saying they sounded un-Girardi-like.

"You block the plate. If I slide into him and break a leg, nothing is said. Instead of breaking my leg, I bowl him over and it's not the right play? Well, to me it is the right play, spring training, or no spring training. Play the game the right way. To me, our kid played it the way he thought it was right, and I think it was right," Zim said.

And Zimmer is right, especially considering what the Rays are trying to do- have their first winning season in franchise history. You don't accomplish that by letting Girardi's message of "play hard some of the time, just don't get hurt" be your organizational mantra. The Rays don't have New York's history, talent, or budget, so they're going to have to play hard to win. Johnson is trying to make a good impression on his organization by being gritty. Not dirty, gritty. There's a difference. And for that matter, Cervelli was trying to be gritty too, by blocking the plate. Obviously Johnson wasn't trying to break Cervelli's wrist, but that's what happens sometimes when a catcher blocks the plate.

Nevertheless Girardi said there wasn't any bad blood between the two AL East clubs. But it now appears he may come in a close second to former Governor Eliot Spitzer for the title of Biggest Hypocrite in New York.

This was the scene Wednesday in the second inning (mind you, less than 10 outs from the first pitch, starters still playing). Despite being warned before the game, Yankee hurler Heath Phillips (not a candidate for the rotation) drilled Rays' top prospect Evan Longoria with a pitch (the projected opening day third baseman). Phillips was ejected and both dugouts were warned again, but apparently Shelley Duncan (and Girardi, perhaps) didn't get the message, because Duncan went spikes-up into Rays' infielder Akinori Iwamura (another starter). Duncan was ejected, then tackled by Jonny Gomes who came racing in from right field and both benches emptied.

Duncan hinted he was going to do something meat-headed or dirty (not gritty) right after the collision at home a few days ago.

"They showed what is acceptable to them and how they're going to play the game, so we're going to go out there to match their intensity, or even exceed it," he told reporters after Cervelli-gate.

What his quote basically says is, "we're going to exceed their intensity by playing dirty."

A gritty player doesn't need to tell everyone how hard he's going to play, because he just goes out and does it. But that's not what Duncan did because he's a non-starter, goon. He's 6'6'', 225 pounds, 28 years old, and has 74 career at-bats in the majors. If he gets hurt it doesn't matter. So he either took it upon himself to avenge a guy whose name he probably didn't know a month ago, or he was sent in to do his manager's dirty work.

The biggest problem I have here is the fact that Duncan, Girardi, or both, specifically targeted Tampa's starters- Iwamura and Longoria. It wasn't Jorge Posada who got plowed into four days ago. It was a guy who was going to be in high-A ball. That's playing dirty and trying to injure half of Tampa's starting infield.

Collisions at the plate are part of the game. They happen. Nobody scripts them out ahead of time. And in most cases, nobody involved in one does so with malicious intent. A runner wants to score, a catcher wants to tag him out. But throwing at people and going in spikes-high...those actions are just the opposite. They're premeditated, malicious, and dirty.

Thankfully, nobody got hurt during today's exchanges and no punches were thrown. But it will be interesting to see if the Yankees continue to be as petty as they've been so far when these teams hook up in the regular season, April 4 in the Bronx. It was also be interesting to see if Tampa decides to retaliate a little higher up the totem pole...i.e. against one of the Yankees' starters, not Shelley Duncan.

Why I Love Vin Scully

Why? Because he nicknames pitches, like this filthy hammer from Dodgers' farmhand Clayton Kershaw. I'm not sure what's more entertaining...Sean Casey's knee-buckling, or Scully's reaction to the backwards K.

Andy LaOuch

Did I say I was going to jinx the L.A. Dodgers or did I say I was going to jinx the L.A. Dodgers?

Just days after predicting they would win the World Series, third baseman and Rookie of the Year candidate Andy LaRoche tore a tigament in his thumb and will miss two months or more. And it was on a totally freak play. There was a rundown, an errant throw, and a riccochet. Interestingly, LaRoche had just entered the game to replace Nomar Garciaparra, who had to leave the game after being hit by a pitch. Luckily for Nomar, his x-rays are negative, and for now, the third base job is his.

So, How's That Rebuilding Going?

Well let's see, O's fans. Troy Patton, the centerpiece of the Miguel Tejada deal, will miss the entire season with a torn labrum, Daniel Cabrera still can't find the strike zone, Nick Markakis feels like he's not being paid enough, and the Brian-Roberts-to-the-Cubs-deal is going nowhere. Is it 2011 yet?

Playoffs: Something Old, Something New

Based on my previous predictions for the AL East, AL Central, and AL West, the ALDS matchups would feature the Detroit Tigers (98 wins) as the number one seed against the Seattle Mariners (93 wins), and the Boston Red Sox (97 wins) against the Cleveland Indians (96 wins) in a rematch of last year's ALCS. In the NL, we would see Arizona earn the number one seed (again) and they would take on the Central champion Cubs (again) in the first round, while the other matchup would have the Mets from the NL East taking on the Wild Card winning Dodgers.

I think Detroit's high-octane offense will be too much for Seattle's relatively young and relatively playoff-inexperienced pitching staff. After all, many of Detroit's current hurlers were around when they went to the series in 2006, and newcomer Dontrelle Willis also has playoff experience from the Marlins' championship season of 2003 (albeit dubious playoff experience- an 8.53 ERA and 10 walks in 12 1/3). Simply put, Detroit averages 7 runs a game and wins round 1 in 4 games.

In the other ALDS matchup, I like the Sox to beat the Tribe for much the same reason they dispatched with them 5 months ago- starting pitching. Josh Beckett and Curt Schilling are two of the best active postseason hurlers. And while I don't expect C.C. Sabathia to look as bad as he did in '07, Cleveland's pitching thins out significantly after the big fella's turn in the rotation. In other words, I'm not a Fausto Carmona believer, just yet. Boston sweeps it, 3-0.

Over in the NL, I like Arizona's dynamic trio (Brandon Webb, Dan Haren, Randy Johnson) to prove too much for the Cubs' sluggers, but it won't be easy. Chicago's superior bullpen helps them steal two games when the D-Backs' young hitters stumble in the early innings. The Snakes advance to the NLDS, 3 games to 2.

And finally, in the only upset of the first round, I like the LA Dodgers to knock off the New York Mets 3-1. Johan Santana has proven to be moderately human in October (1-3, 3.97 ERA in 5 starts), while there's no substitute for Joe Torre's calming, been-there-done-that experience in the LA dugout. Nomar Garciaparra delivers a game-winning hit off Billy Wagner in Game 2, and the Mets never recover. LA advances, 3-1.

In the ALCS, we would see, arguably, the best two teams in baseball- the Red Sox and Tigers. Both teams can hit, pitch, close, and play defense. That's why this one is going all 7 games. But in the end, there's just too much Josh Beckett, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Fenway Park for Detroit to advance. Good news for the Tigers is, they'll be right back in the thick of it in '09.

And in the NLCS, break out the boys in blue. LA continues on its postseason tear easily dispatching with the D-Backs in 5 games. Their talented and speedy top of the order causes fits for Arizona's pitchers and the Snakes' bullpen coughs up another win in this one.

That leaves us with a Boston Red Sox/Los Angeles Dodgers World Series, featuring two of baseball's oldest and most recognizable franchises, and featuring two managers who know each other all-too-well...Terry Francona and Joe Torre. And like the classic Sox/Yankees playoff matchups of recent years, this series doesn't disappoint either. It goes all 7 games, provides us with some memorable moments (20 years to the day, David Ortiz does a reverse Kirk Gibson crushing a walk-off in extra innings in LA...Nomar gets 5 hits at Fenway Park as a DH...and Jonathan Papelbon picks up a 4-inning, 8 strikeout win in relief). But I'm sorry to say Red Sox fans, you won't be popping champagne for the 3rd time in 5 seasons. LA is too balanced, too deep and too well-managed and Vin Scully's boys are champs for the first time since 1988.

How's that for a jinx?