NL West: The Best There Is

The Arizona Diamondbacks had the best record in the NL in 2007 and enter 2008 having added All-Star Game starring pitcher Dan Haren to a rotation that already boasts Cy Young candidate Brandon Webb. Meantime, Randy Johnson is now throwing to live hitters at spring training as he rehabs from season-ending back surgery last year. And to top it all off, youngsters Chris Young, Stephen Drew, Mark Reynolds, and Justin Upton are all a year older and a year more experienced. And one of these days people are going to appreciate what a good player Eric Byrnes is...some day.

Meantime, the Colorado Rockies went to the World Series last year after winning 21 of 22 games from mid-September on. They enter 2008 with Matt Holliday resigned to a multi-year deal and out to prove he should have been the MVP not Jimmy Rollins, Troy Tulowitzki out to prove he should have been the Rookie of the Year instead of Ryan Braun, and their only significant losses were Kaz Matsui and LaTroy Hawkins.

The San Diego Padres finished just a game and a half off the pace last year and have swapped Jim Edmonds for Mike Cameron in center field, Tadahito Iguchi for Marcus Giles at second base, and could have the best 1-5 starting rotation in baseball if Jake Peavy, Chris Young, Greg Maddux, Mark Prior, and Randy Wolf all stay healthy.

The Los Angeles Dodgers still managed to finish above .500 last year and addressed a variety of deficiencies during the offseason. They now have Joe Torre at the helm, Andruw Jones in center and in the middle of the lineup, it appears Rafael Furcal is completely healed from a ankle injury, they'll enjoy the services of youngsters James Loney, Matt Kemp, and Andy LaRoche for a full season, plus they've quietly assembled a very respectable starting rotation behind Brad Penny and Derek Lowe, which includes 12-game winner Chad Bilingsley, Japanese import Hiroki Kuroda, and the rehabbing Jason Schmidt as the number 5.

The San Francisco Giants also play in the NL West.

No other division in baseball has four teams that could all legitimately make it to the postseason and that's why the NL West should be as wild as it was last year, when a 1-game, extra-inning affair decided who was going to the NLDS and who was going golfing.

This division is virtually impossible to predict. So instead, here's what has to go right, can't go wrong, or needs to be answered by these teams.

Arizona: Randy Johnson really is a key cog in their whole operation. He needs 16 wins to reach 300 for his career and don't think he doesn't know that. Plus, in light of the whole Roger Clemens/steroids/FBI thing, Johnson has a chance to supplant The Rocket (hard as that was to imagine 4 months ago) as "best pitcher of the generation and one of the best ever" if he reaches that magic plateau. So certainly the motivation is there. But will his body hold up? If it does, the D-Backs will be the favorite to reach, and perhaps win the Series because nobody's beating a rotation of Webb, Haren, and The Big Unit. It's also worth pointing out that Jose Valverde is gone and Brandon Lyon is getting first crack at 9th inning duties. He's tried this before with other teams and failed, so stay tuned.

Colorado: I think the biggest question for the men in purple and black is- are they for real? They were arguably the hottest team in sports history before they ran into a brick wall (Boston) in the Fall Classic. They certainly don't need to have another 21 for 22 stretch, but even after their historic run, there are people who wonder if they can win 11 out of every 20 over a 6 month period. They'll hit for sure, but how good is the rotation (Jeff Francis, Aaron Cook, Ubaldo Jiminez, Jason Hirsh, Franklin Morales) really going to be?

San Diego: In a way, they're the anti-Rockies. They folded down the stretch and pitch well enough to make up for their bad offense. With the fathers, I think Trevor Hoffman is going to play a huge role in their season. Can he still be counted on, close and late? And if not, how long is it going to take to determine, that somebody else needs to close? After all, this guy is an institution with this franchise- their most recognizable player since Tony Gwynn. How do you make him a middle reliever? Aside from Hoff, Prior and Wolf have the opportunity to be saviors or sinners at the back end of their rotation. If they're able to pitch every 5 days, there's no reason each starter can't win at least 12 or 13 games.

Los Angeles: Strange as it seems, I think a lot LA's success will hinge on Rafael Furcal's ability to have a bounce-back season. If he's able to return to his usual 100 runs, 30 steals, .350 OBP, and 45 extra base hits, then many of the other pieces will fall into place. Juan Pierre will be bunting or hitting a lot of groundballs to the right side, and there will be men on base for the heart of the order, which will make it easier for Andruw Jones to go back to being Andruw Jones. And what will LA do with the likes of Andre Either, Matt Kemp, Andy LaRoche and Nomar Garciaparra? They can't all play.

San Francisco: Hope for big years out of Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain, and a rebound campaign from Barry Zito. Unfortunately, with Aarow Rowand replacing Barry Bonds in this, already feeble lineup, it's not going to matter much.

With all that said, here's my prediction...

Arizona 101-61
Los Angeles 93-69
Colorado 89-74
San Diego 79-83
San Francisco 75-87

NL Central: Options Are Endless

By my estimate there are three teams that could reasonably win the NL Central this year- the Cubs (who won it last year), the Brewers (who finished just 2 games back last year) and the Reds who finished 13 back. Yes, the Reds.

I'll start with the obvious- Chicago. They trimmed some fat in the offseason, parting ways with Jason Kendall, Mark Prior, Cliff Floyd, and Jacque Jones (none of whom will be particularly missed). In the process, they added a slugging right fielder from Japan (Kosuke Fukodome) and an aging hurler looking to prove he can still be an effective starter (Jon Lieber). Those two may not be Miggy Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis, but overall, it's a net gain for the Cubs, a team which won 85 games last year. Now to the really good news for the boys in blue. Aramis Ramirez, Derrek Lee, and Alfonso Soriano all enter the season poised to play in 150 games apiece, something that hasn't happened while these three righty boppers have been on the same team. Plus, they have promising youngsters Giovany Soto (catcher) and Felix Pie (center) up the middle. And for the first time in a while, they have a seemingly sure-fire option to close- Carlos Marmol. He was filthy out of the pen in 2007 after a miserable 2006 as a starter. His strikeout-to-walk ratio went from 1:1 to almost 3:1 and as a result, he allowed 41 fewer earned runs in 7 2/3 fewer innings. He also held batters to a .169 clip and had 16 holds. Ryan Dempster who? Their starting pitching staff (minus Marmol) remains very solid too. When he keeps his emotions in check, Carlos Zambrano is about as good as they come, Ted Lilly quietly won 15 games with a sub-1.20 WHIP last year, Rich Hill held opponents to a .235 batting average over 32 starts and Jason Marquis even won 12 games.

Milwaukee was oh-so-close last year, but still finished with a winning record for the first time in 15 years. And like the Cubs, Milwaukee is as good, if not better than they were a year ago. They'll have Ryan Braun (now an outfielder) for 162 games. Francisco Cordero is out, Eric Gagne is in at closer. Johnny Estrada is out and Jason Kendall is in behind the plate. Once he returns from his PED suspension, Mike Cameron will play center, shifting Bill Hall back to third base and they added occasionally-reliable relievers Guillermo Mota and Salomon Torres. Plus they have this guy named Prince whose dad used to be a big leaguer. He's supposed to be pretty good too. For Milwaukee, their biggest question mark is their starting pitching. Ben Sheets hasn't made 25 starts or thrown 160 innings in a season since 2004. Dave Bush did not have the breakout 2007 many predicted. Jeff Suppan will be a .500 pitcher with a 4.50 ERA no matter where he ends up. Chris Capuano needs to pretend last season never happened, promising rookie Yovanni Gallardo just had minor knee surgery after tearing cartilage, but he's expected to be ready to go by Opening Day, and the Beer Makers need to decide if Carlos Villanueva is better suited for the pen or the rotation. If the stars align, this rotation could be dangerous (a healthy Sheets and Gallardo, Bush breaks out a year late, Capuano returns to his '06 form, and Suppan pitches like it's the '06 postseason). But right now, I have to give the edge to the Cubs.

Then there's Cincinnati. The biggest name they added was Francisco Cordero and the biggest name they lost was Josh Hamilton. Neither is Earth-shattering (although Cordero might help them improve upon their 28 blown saves from last year, second worst in baseball). But it's their farm system's additions to the big club that could (emphasis on could) propel this team into the driver's seat. There are three guys (pitcher Homer Bailey, first baseman Joey Votto, and outfielder Jay Bruce) who could turn a team that went 72-90 in '07, into a team that goes 90-72 in '08. Bailey had a forgettable debut thanks to a groin injury, but may be a bigger talent than Phil Hughes in New York. Votto had an OPS of more than .900 in 84 AB's last year and first base is now his. And while Bruce is blocked in the outfield right now (Griffey, Freel, Dunn), he's being compared to Ryan Braun and Hunter Pence in terms of his instant-impact potential. But then again, he doesn't have a job yet. The Reds have the right pieces in place, though. Aaron Harang is a workhorse. Brandon Phillips went 30-30 last year, Edwin Encarnacion is still young and Griffey and Dunn should hit at least 65 bombs between the two of them. So if their rookies contribute and if Bronson Arroyo gets straightened out, you could be looking at this year's version of the Colorado Rockies.

As for everybody else, a new-look Houston club just will not have the pitching to compete in this division. Roy Oswalt and Four Other Guys won't get it done against the hitters I've already named. Right now, I like their revamped infield with Miguel Tejada and Kaz Matsui, but between Miggy's PED problems and Matsui's penchant for going belly-up, this could be a disaster by July. Michael Bourne "Ultimatum" should steal a ton of bases and could score a bunch in front of Carlos Lee and Lance Berkman, but not enough to make up for how many runs this team will give up. New closer Jose Valverde won't sniff 47 saves this year. Heck, he might not get 47 chances.

The St. Louis Cardinals are kind of like a bad version of Houston. They have even less pitching (Adam Wainwright is their Opening Day starter), and an offense that isn't nearly as frightening as the 'Stros. Ryan Ludwick, Rick Ankiel, and Chris Duncan may be the least exciting starting outfield in the bigs (although minor leaguer Colby Rasmus could change that quickly). And in the infield, it's Albert Pujols, Troy Glaus and not much more. Thank goodness for the Red Birds, they have Tony LaRussa and...

The Pittsburgh Pirates. The last time they had a winning season, Bill Clinton was elected President, Barry Bonds won his second MVP award, the Washington Redskins were Super Bowl champs, and for the first time ever, Americans bought more CDs than cassette tapes. It was 1992! If there is one safe bet going into 2008, it's that Pittsburgh extends its losing streak to 16 seasons in a row. In 2007, they were 23rd in runs, 25th in OBP, 21st in slugging, 26th in ERA, 21st in quality starts, and 29th in BAA and their biggest offseason acquisitions were Chris Gomez and Byung Hyun-Kim. 82-80? Dream on.

Here's my prediction...

Chicago 88-74
Milwaukee 87-75
Cincinnati 85-77
Houston 70-92
St. Louis 65-97
Pittsburgh 60-102

Poor Bastard

The link to an article on Francisco Rodriguez's salary arbitration case with L.A. read as follows earlier today on ESPN.com..."K-Rod loses to Angels in arbitration, will get $10M."

I hope I lose that badly some day.

NL East: The Mets Can't Blow It Again This Year, Right?

Probably not. Then again, that's what everybody said about their 7 game lead with 17 to go back in September and we all know how that one ended. But there's a good reason why they won't close out the season 5-12 this year and miss the playoffs by one game- Johan Santana.

By adding the best pitcher on the planet (sorry Josh Beckett fans), by cutting ties with a no-longer-effective Tom Glavine, and by (hopefully) enjoying Pedro Martinez's services for the entire year, New York's starting pitching should be remarkably better in '08 than it was in '07 (don't forget about John Maine either). At the very least, it should be 2 games better, which would would have been enough to keep the Phillies home in October, rather than the other way around. In addition to adding Johan, New York returns basically the same team that won 88 games a season ago- David Wright, Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran, Carlos Delgado, Moises Alou- they're all still here. They've changed catchers (out goes Paul Lo Duca, in comes Brian Schneider, the net result of which is negligible), and have Ryan Church instead of a combination of Carlos Gomez and Lastings Milledge in the outfield, so a little speed is gone, but these guys are still going to score a lot and play good defense.

The Phillies will score a ton or runs too, largely thanks to the best offensive infield in baseball. They have arbitration record-setter Ryan Howard at first, Chase Utley at second, reigning MVP Jimmy Rollins at short, and even though they could have Abbott and Costello platooning at third, they have the occasionally useful Pedro Feliz instead. They'll definitely miss Aaron Rowand's glove and bat in the center, which will now be manned by the speedy Shane Victornio, and rightfielder Geoff Jenkins is another newcomer. Brad Lidge will get the first crack at 9th inning duties, but something tells me a homer-prone closer in a homer-prone home ballpark is not a good fit. Having Brett Myers back in the rotation and having Kyle "Thank God I Wasn't Traded To Japan" Kendrick for a full year should help make ace Cole Hamels job a little less stressful. Overall though, I just feel like the Phillies aren't a whole lot better than they were last year (granted they were a playoff team), while the Mets added the biggest prize of the offseason to a team that should have finished in first place to begin with. But if Johan is less-than-spectacular, if Pat Burrell has two halves like his second half, if Lidge is money, and if Howard and Utley both get 600+ ABs, this could be a very interesting race.

The rest of the division lags really far behind these two teams. Atlanta will get a big contract year out of Mark Teixeira, then he'll be a Yankee in '09. The Bravos are replacing Andruw Jones and Edgar Renteria with Mark Kotsay and Yunel Escobar. John Smoltz turns 41 in May. Tom Glavine turns 42 in March. And even though Tim Hudson had his best season in 4 years, they still don't have a tested closer. Bobby Cox is a genius, but .500 would be an accomplishment especially considering 22% of their games this season, including 12 of their last 15 are against New York or Philadelphia. It would have been hard to imagine during their run of 14 in a row, but the Braves will miss the playoffs for the 3rd straight time this year.

And in the battle for who wants last place the least, we have the Nationals and Marlins- two teams with virtually anonymous starting pitching staffs, and two teams who will be beaten up time and time again in '08. The Nats have a new ballpark, but basically the same team that lost 89 games last season. Paul Lo Duca and Lastings Milledge are their two most significant new faces. Although Ryan Zimmerman, Dmitri Young, Austin Kearns, and possibly even Wily Mo Pena will benefit from Nationals Park's more hitter-friendly environment.

Florida may put more potential talent on the field than Washington this season, but after dealing away Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis for, among others, Cameron Maybin and Andrew Miller, this team looks awfully young and awfully inexperienced. Hanley Ramirez and Dan Uggla are nearly as good an offensive middle infield combo as Rollins and Utley, Jeremy Hermida is showing promise, and Josh Willingham and Mike Jacobs are serviceable. But this pitching staff simply is not. Their Opening Day starter in '08, Scott Olsen, went 10-15 and allowed almost 16 baserunners per 9 innings last year.

Here's the breakdown...

New York 95-67
Philadelphia 91-71
Atlanta 78-84
Washington 73-89
Florida 70-92

AL West: Flip A Coin

Seattle or L.A.? L.A. or Seattle? I know this much. One of these teams is winning the division and the other will (likely) miss the playoffs because the Sox, Yankees, Tigers, and Tribe should all finish with better records.

So, who's going to be where?

Well, both teams added a big name in the offseason- the Angels when the signed free-agent outfielder Torii Hunter and Seattle when they traded for lefty Erik Bedard. Both teams also added another starting pitcher- Jon Garland went to L.A. and Carlos Silva went to Seattle. And both teams also lost a few key players. L.A. said goodbye to Orlando Cabrera, while Seattle parted ways with Jose Guillen, plus Adam Jones and George Sherrill (to get Bedard). Just for a frame of reference, Seattle finished 6 games back of the Halos last year. They won 88 games to L.A.'s 94.

So taking all that into account, what do you have? Well, in my opinion, you have a Seattle club that's going to be just a little bit better than the Angels for the following reasons. First and foremost- pitching. Bedard and Felix Hernandez have the potential to be the best 1-2 punch in the league. Jarrod Washburn pitched better than his record indicated last year, and even though Miguel Batista was the exact opposite, Silva is better than your average number 5, in that he's an experienced vet. Meantime, with Kelvim Escobar (somehow, an 18-game winner last year) out until at least May with shoulder problems (I suspect he'll stay on the shelf a lot longer), you have an L.A. rotation that will feature John Lackey and Jered Weaver at the front end. Lackey is steady as ever, but Weaver looked a lot more human in '07 than he did in '06. Then you have Jon Garland who was sub-.500 last year with a K:BB of less than 2:1, and Joe Saunders, who's still trying to earn a spot, officially, in the rotation and has never pitched a full season in the bigs. The overall talent level and experience level of these starters is no comparison.

Then there's the offense. Neither club is going to set records, but again I give the nod to the M's. Yes, L.A. scored more runs than Seattle last year, but not by much, and they also lost their top run-scorer, Cabrera, a guy who also hit over .300 and stole 20 bases. True they added Torii Hunter but may actually wish the had O-Cab instead halfway through the season. I guess I've just never been a huge Hunter fan, offensively. Plus, aside from Chone Figgins, L.A.'s infield is very inexperienced (Casey Kotchman, Howie Kendrick, Erick Aybar, and catcher Mike Napoli). It just seems to me this team isn't that much different from last year's, which was Vlad Guerrero and not much else. Seattle seems to be a bit more balanced. They have the best leadoff hitter in the game in Ichiro, potentially dangerous bats in the middle of the order (Raul Ibanez, Adrian Beltre and Richie Sexson, fresh off a .205 season) and guys who are tough outs (Yuniesky Betancourt, Jose Vidro, and Kenji Johjima). We'll see. Another big injury or big trade could shift the balance quite a bit, so anything's possible.

What's not possible though, is Texas or Oakland finishing in first place. For seemingly the 37th year in a row, Texas just doesn't have the pitching. They've completely re-worked their outfield with Marlon Byrd, Josh Hamilton, and Milton Bradley, plus a lot of people are interested to see what Jarrod Saltalamacchia can do with a full season, and their middle infielders (Michael Young and Ian Kinsler) are quite talented. But they don't have the arms and if you can't pitch, you can't win. Just for fun, I looked this up. Texas hasn't had a starter with an ERA below 4.00 and at least 16 wins in a season since Ken Hill in 1996. Ken Hill. 1996. Eeh.

Then there's Oakland. This year's going to be rough. No Dan Haren, no Nick Swisher, no Mark Kotsay, and no Mike Piazza (not that they got much from him in '07). But they'll look for bounce-back years from Huston Street, Eric Chavez and the oft-injured Bobby Crosby and Rich Harden. And they'll be back and better than ever in a few years (perhaps by 2011 when they're ready to move into their new ballpark). Catcher Kurt Suzuki, first baseman Daric Barton, and outfielders Travis Buck and Carlos Gonzalez (acquired in the Dan Haren trade) can all play. But they need hundreds of at-bats first. They also got some really good arms in their firesale- starters Gio Gonzalez, Brett Anderson, Fautino de los Santos and reliever Joey Devine. So Oakland fans will have to be patient.

That said, here's my prediction...

Seattle 93-69
Los Angeles 88-74
Texas 74-88
Oakland 69-93

Andy, I Forgive You

I feel like if more people did what Andy Pettitte did, baseball's steroids problem wouldn't be front-page news every day and it wouldn't be as irritating for fans as it is right now.

Rather than speaking through lawyers, consulting his lawyers before every response, or stumbling through obviously rehearsed talking-points, he gave each reporter who asked him a question at today's press conference, what looked like an honest, straightforward, off-the-top-of-his head answer. And in a way, you almost feel sorry for him. He's been put in an impossible situation between two men he still considers friends. His father's health problems have become common knowledge as a result of all this, his wife has been dragged through all of this, and all because he claims to have taken HGH to get back on the field sooner and justify his big contract, not to break a record or gain a competitive advantage.

In the context of PEDs, people like Andy Pettitte are easy to forgive because he doesn't come across as smarmy, arrogant, or indignant. He came across the way someone caught doing something illegal should feel- contrite, apologetic, and embarrassed. And because he's been up front with everybody, the questions won't linger. Everybody got their answers today and if you have a lick of common sense in you, his answers make sense. So the media will find something else to report on, and Pettitte will go back to being just an important part of the Yankees starting rotation. Funny how that works.

Not So On The Money (Ball)

I'm as big an Oakland A's fan and Billy Beane fan as there is. Although this season will be painful, I like the fact that he sold high on what talent he had left and reloaded for 2010.

But it's time to face the facts.

Five and a half years after the much-ballyhooed 2002 draft and four years after the release of "Moneyball," the book chronicling Oakland's spendthrift ways and outside-the-box thinking, the seven guys they took in the first round that year, with a few exceptions, weren't all that special.

With the 16th overall pick, they took Nick Swisher...no arguments there. He's a solid player, has 80 career homeruns and a .361 OBP in, what amounts to 3 big league seasons. Plus, his batting average has gone up each year he's been in the league. I hate to see him go to the White Sox, but they got a lot in return for him. High schoolers Cole Hamels, James Loney, and Jeff Francoeur went right after him, though.

With the 24th pick, they took Joe Blanton. He's a solid number 3 starter, but probably will never be an All-Star, probably will never win more than 17 games and probably will never have an ERA below 3.50. He's definitely durable though, having made almost 100 starts in the last 3 years. During that time, he's 8 games over .500 with an ERA just above 4.00. Matt Cain was the next player taken.

With the 26th pick, they took John McCurdy, an infielder from the University of Maryland. He was released by the club last April and had a career .302 OBP in more than 1700 career minor league at-bats, mostly below double-A. A tremendous college player, but not "the next Jeff Kent" as the book predicted.

A few picks later at 30, they took Benjamin Fritz, a pitcher from Fresno State. He went 11-11 at double-A last year with a 5.67 ERA, 88 strikeouts, 68 walks, and 6 wild pitches in nearly 150 IP and has yet to appear in the major leagues.

With the 35th pick, the A's took Alabama catcher Jeremy Brown, noted as being "huge in the ass" in the book- thus the reason he was overlooked. Brown just retired from baseball a few days ago, despite hitting .276 with 14 homers at triple-A last year. He went 3 for 10 with 2 doubles, a run scored, and a walk in a brief stint with the big club in '06.

At 37, the A's took Stephen Obenchain, a pitcher from the University of Evansville. He, too was released last season and played in the Independent League in '07. He never made it past double-A, and owns a 19-20 career record in 96 minor league games (52 starts) along with a 4.15 ERA.

And finally, their last first-round pick at 39, was Mark Teahen, who's now with the Kansas City Royals. An outfielder now because of Alex Gordon, he had a nice 2006 season, going .290/18/69 with 10 steals in less than 400 ABs, but his 2007 was a pretty big disappointment. In 150 more at-bats, he hit 11 fewer homeruns, drove in 9 less, saw his slugging percentage dip more than 100 points and walked just 15 more times. He's still slated to be KC's Opening Day right fielder.

So out of their 7 picks, 3 players are big league starters (although none have won major awards or been selected to an All-Star team), 3 have yet to see an inning of action in the majors, one had a cup of coffee, and only two are still in the Oakland organization. Sounds like a pretty typical draft to me.

I Like Baseball Stuff Too, But...

I'm not sure if I'd pay hundreds of dollars for this.

AL Central: Tougher Than The AL East?

Maybe.

We'll have to see just how good the Tigers and Indians are. But on paper, those two look every bit as competitive as the Sox and Yankees...with the White Sox, Twins, and Royals giving the Blue Jays, Rays, and O's runs for their respective money in the win column.

As of mid-February, we already know Detroit was the big winner of the offseason, adding Miguel Cabrera, Dontrelle Willis, Edgar Renteria, and Jacque Jones to a team that won 88 games last year. And their only major contributor from '07 who won't be back in '08 is Sean Casey. That's a pretty good offseason. It also gives Detroit, arguably, the best lineup in the game. They have speedy contact hitters with Renteria, Curtis Granderson, Carlos Guillen and Placido Polanco...and mashers with Cabrera, Magglio Ordonez, and Gary Sheffield. Plus they're tremendously strong up the middle defensively with Ivan Rodriguez, Renteria, Polanco, and Granderson. The only unknown for Detroit is the pitching staff, which could be, but isn't a lock to be, quite good. Justin Verlander is a bona fide #1, and Willis could be a very capable #2, but he looked like number two in '07 going 10-15 with a 5.17 ERA and 87 walks in 205 IP. Minus the walks, Jeremy Bonderman had a similar year, but much better run support, and therefore, a winning record. And the ageless Kenny Rogers should be a capable #4 so long as the cameramen keep their distance.

For the Tribe, they're bringing back almost the exact same team that won 96 games last year and did so without a particularly productive season from Travis Hafner and a year from Grady Sizemore that was very good but still failed to meet lofty expectations. Plus, I'm sure they're excited to see what newbies Franklin Gutierrez, Asdrubal Cabrera, and Ryan Garko can do with 600 ABs. Like Detroit, it may come down to pitching for Cleveland. Can C.C. Sabathia turn in another Cy Young-worthy performance? Is Fausto Carmona for real? And what are they going to get from Paul Byrd and Jake Westbrook? The answers to those questions may determine who wins the division.

As for everyone else, the White Sox are an interesting group going into '08. They added some nice offensive punch with Nick Swisher, Carlos Quentin, and Orlando Cabrera. So if Jermaine Dye and Paul Konerko can hit a little better, and if Joe Crede can bounce back, they're going to score a lot of runs. The front-end of their rotation is filled with solid, unspectacular veterans (Mark Buehrle, Javy Vazquez, and Jose Contreras) while the back end is largely untested (John Danks, Gavin Floyd). It's for that reason that they'll finish no higher than 3rd, unless Cleveland or Detroit go completely belly-up.

The Minnesota Twins had an offseason to forget. They traded their number one starter (Johan Santana), their number two starter (Matt Graza), and lost their number three starter (Carlos Silva) and All-Star center fielder (Torii Hunter) to free agancy. Ouch. Francisco Liriano now projects to anchor this makeshift staff, which also includes journeyman Livan Hernandez and late-20-somethings Boof Bonser and Scott Baker. They did makeover their outfield with Delmon Young from the Garza deal and Carlos Gomez from the Santana deal. They'll make it easy to forget about Torii Hunter in a year or two, but this year, it won't matter.

And then there are the Kansas City Royals, who inexplicably gave Jose Guillen a $36 million 3-year-contract.

Here's my take on the Central in '08...

Detroit 98-64

Cleveland 96-66

Chicago 81-81

Minnesota 75-87

Kansas City 60-102

AL East: The More Things Don't Change...

...the more they stay the same. The biggest moves involving the AL East this offseason deal, for the first time in a long time, with players leaving. A handful of big names left the division, the league, or baseball altogether (Erik Bedard, Eric Gagne, Miguel Tejada, Delmon Young, Troy Glaus, Roger Clemens). The only former All-Stars who joined the division during the offseason are Sean Casey (Boston), Scott Rolen and David Eckstein (both Toronto) and their best days are all behind them.

That, coupled with the relative lack of activity (other than re-signing their own key guys) of the Red Sox and Yankees, it's not surprising that I'm expecting the East to pan out about how it did last year. IMO, even without Curt Schilling for an extended stretch of time, the Bo Sox pitching is stronger than New York's. Josh Beckett has the chance to emerge to near-Johan-Santana-status with a 2008 season similar to his 2007 and there's little reason to suspect he can't do it. Yes, the Sox will lean on the likes of Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz this year a bit more than they were expecting a few weeks ago, but so will the Yankees with Phil Hughes, Ian Kennedy, and Joba Chamberlain. I'd take the Sox supporting cast (Dice-K and Wakefield) over the Yankees' (Pettitte, Mussina/Pavano) any day of the week.

The highest drama in the division in '08 (besides, of course, whether New York has enough muscle to edge out Cleveland, Detroit, LA, and Seattle for the Wild Card) might be whether this is the year the D-Rays finish 3rd. Yes 3rd. The Orioles, finally committed to a youth movement, are clearly punting 2008, so they'll be dead last for sure. The Jays did finish above .500 last year and their left side of the infield will be vastly improved. Plus, if B.J. Ryan is truly healthy, that will create some much-needed stability at the back of the pen. A few thousand miles south, Tampa Bay lost its Devil, but gained plenty of young talent (Scott Kazmir, Matt Garza, James Shields, B.J. Upton, Carl Crawford, Rookie-of-the-Year candidate Evan "Don't Call Me Eva" Longoria, and the active-until-injured Rocco Baldelli), plus they re-signed Carlos Pena to a multi-year deal. The back end of their rotation is still shaky at best, but these guys will be competitive.

That said, here's how it shakes out...

Boston 97-65
New York 93-69
Toronto 82-80
Tampa 81-81
Baltimore 58-104

Next up, an AL Central that's even more top-heavy than the AL East.

A Different Take On Steroids

In case any of you are interested, I did a fairly in-depth investigation into steroid-use among young people in the Piedmont Triad area of North Carolina, where I live and work. You can see that TV news story here. My station's main anchor also interviewed me about my experiences during my playing days. That web news story is here.

WE'LL NEVER KNOW THE TRUTH

Unless someone other than Brian McNamee comes forward with something significant, we'll never know who is telling the truth about Roger Clemens and steroids.

You have the accused whose alleged steroid and PED use is not impossible to believe, given among other things (a) his late-career success, (b) Andy Pettitte's admission that he (Clemens) discussed using PEDs with him (Pettitte) when they were teammates, (c) the fact that his own wife admitted to using HGH injected by McNamee, and (d) may have tampered with a witness (his former Nanny) prior to her meeting with Congress regarding his absence or presence at a party thrown by admitted steroid-user Jose Canseco.

Conversely, you have an accuser who is (a) a pathological liar, (b) an admitted drug-dealer and (c) in possession of little more than his own version of what happened along with so-called "forensic evidence" that is years old and would hold absolutely no legal clout due to chain of custody issues.

After watching the bulk of this 4 hour 40 minute hearing today, I went back and forth several times as to who I believed before reaching the conclusion, impossible as it is given their diametrically-opposed testimony, that I don't believe either one of them.

In my opinion, Clemens rambled too much, used the crutch word "again..." in nearly every single one of his responses, and was unable to provide cogent answers to tough questions, while McNamee came across as a smug, sniveling, street-smart, conman.

I am sure there will be pressure for some sort of follow-up, whether it's more questioning for Andy Pettitte (who Congressman Elijah Cummings said is the only person he believes in all this), a Department of Justice investigation, or perjury charges. But as for proving Clemens' guilt or innocence today, I don't think either happened.

For the record, Jayson Stark has an incredibly-detailed and at times, quite humorous blog about all this. It's definitely worth a read.

The Rocket's Red Scare

If this is true, if Roger Clemens talked with Andy Pettitte about his own HGH-use in the late-90s, then the Rocket might be grounded for good. Pettitte has been excused from testifying today on Capitol Hill, but it's what's in his affidavit that could put his former teammate into "Barry Bonds territory"- accused of lying to the feds about performance-enhancing drugs and potentially facing jail time.

As Howard Bryant writes, somebody or several somebodies will come out of today's hearings looking awfully bad. It's either going to be Clemens...or McNamee and George Mitchell (Mitchell isn't actually testifying, but Charlie Scheeler, one of the investigators who worked on the Mitchell Report, is). There's no way all three men will escape unscathed because all three have taken such vehement and opposing positions. Either Clemens will emerge in Duke lacrosse player fashion as the victim of unthinkably false allegations and McNamee will look like scum and Mitchell will look like an incompetent dope...or the exact opposite will happen.

Stay tuned. The hearings are scheduled to begin at 10 o'clock...ironically, in the same room as the 2005 hearings featuring a finger-wagging Rafael Palmeiro, a suddenly-non-English-speaking Sammy Sosa, and a not-here-to-talk-about-the-past Mark McGwire.

Joba, The What?

With pitchers and catchers reporting to spring training today, the New York Yankees already have very specific plans for rookie Joba Chamberlain this year, according to the New York Post.

In an effort to keep him from exceeding 140 IP in '08, the Bombers want him to start the season as Mariano Rivera's set-up man. Then some time in June, they'll send him down to the minors so he can begin to train to become a starter. After about a month, they'll bring him back up and he'll join the rotation for the rest of the season.

Memo to New York: It won't be that easy.

It's not that hard to imagine the Yankees getting off to a hot start the first 60 games of the season, keeping pace with Boston in the AL East and with the Angels, Mariners, Tigers and Indians in the Wild Card race. With a new manager, the core of the team re-signed and injury-free, and a dynamite bullpen highlighted by Joba and Mo, it's not inconcievable that New York could go, I dunno, 36-24 by shortening most games to 7 innings then sending in their lights-out relievers for the last 6 outs. But I find it awfully hard to believe the Yankees will then destroy that bullpen continuity by sending Joba down and having him join the rotation. It wouldn't take more than 2 or 3 Kyle Farnsworth/LaTroy Hawkins meltdowns for the Pinstripers to realize they had a pair of aces and discarded one of them.

On the flipside, say Joba struggles as a set-up man. Does a promotion from the pen to the rotation all-the-sudden seem prudent? Usually it goes the other way- a starter flounders, then becomes a reliever. Or what if they send him down, and he stinks as a starter? Does he go back to the pen, back to the minors, or does New York punt every 5th game?

And on the other flipside (yes, there are at least three sides to this particular coin), say the Yankees don't start hot. Say Pettitte and Mussina show their age, while Hughes and Kennedy show theirs and New York is at a loss for arms. Do you think the Yankees will wait until more than a third of the season is in the books to make a move? I doubt it.

Simply put, the Joba Rules are too simply put to have a snowball's chance of panning out exactly the way the Yankees want.

Bedard Deal Official

The Baltimore Sun has a nice breakdown of who the O's are getting for Erik Bedard, now that the deal is done. And right now, it looks like they got a lot more than what the Twins got for Johan Santana.

I already knew a little bit about 22-year-old center fielder Adam Jones, but not much more about the other four guys. Among them, it appears there's a 30-year-old closer candidate for this season (George Sherill), two potential mid-rotation starters who are just 20 and 19 (Tony Butler and Chris Tillman), and a 23-year-old closer candidate in-waiting (Kam Mickolio). All this for a bona fide ace who's not yet 29, but also has yet to pitch 200 innings in a season, has never been an All-Star, and has zero postseason appearances.

Well done, Birds.

Now, get what you can for Brian Roberts and we'll check back with you in 2010.

Remember When These Guys Just Made Baseball News?

In the Roger Clemens/Brian McNamee saga, we now know this much. Somebody is lying to the federal government. Clemens continues to deny any and all wrongdoing, while McNamee has produced pictures of what he claims is physical evidence that the Rocket used illegal performance-enhancing drugs. Clemens and legal experts have questioned the so-called "chain of custody" of this evidence, and how, even if the DNA tests link Clemens to this stuff, there's no way to prove it hasn't been tampered with in the years it's been sitting in McNamee's basement. Wednesday's televised testimony with these guys should be interesting.

Regarding the whole Pedro Martinez cockfighting thing, people will try to compare this to Michael Vick, and those people are flat wrong. Vick broke the law. Martinez did not. Vick was in the US. Martinez was in the Dominican. Millions of people have dogs as pets. Very few have gamecocks as pets. Very few people eat dog meat. Most people eat some type of bird meat. I can see how on the heels of Vick, the Mets probably aren't thrilled that video of Pedro at a cockfight surfaced on the web. That's not exactly the kind of PR you want to have right after trading for the best pitcher on the planet. And I'll be the first to say I don't get what's so thrilling about watching birds with razors on their beaks and talons peck each other to death. It seems kind of barbaric. But it's just not the same thing as dogfighting- not even close. In fact, it's so much different that it's not worth mentioning any further.

And finally, I'll say this about Curt Schilling and Shouldergate. Even if he doesn't throw a pitch in 2008, the Sox will still have the best pitching staff in their division with Beckett, Dice-K, Lester, Buchholz, and Wakefield. No other team is close (sorry Yankee fans). They might miss Schilling in October, though. In 19 career starts, he's 11-2 with a 2.23 ERA and 120 K's. That will be hard to replace. But if the bloody sock is any indicator of this guy's guts, he'll be back on the field as soon as he's able.

Look Familiar?

To me, the Washington Nationals' new home ballpark looks a whole lot like Citizens Bank in Philadelphia. I'm not saying that was by design, and I liked the Bank the two times I was there. I just find it curious.

For the record, it's called "Nationals Park." That's about as exciting as their team should be this season.

Bye Bye Bedard

It looks like it's a reality in Baltimore. If 22-year-old Adam Jones is as good as advertised (he went .314, 25 HR, 27 doubles, .382 OBP last year in AAA) then the Birds will have the makings of a nice offensive future with Nick Markakis and catcher Matt Wieters, who's rated the number one backstop prospect in the game right now.

Is Brian Roberts next on the chopping block? If he's not, he should be, in my opinion.