Pick Em'

Before everyone gets to work filling out their brackets and choosing those pesky 5 vs. 12 upsets, I thought I'd look into some match-ups myself, but of a different variety. Based on ESPN's Live Draft Results, and assuming a competitive 12-team league, here are some tough choices you may be faced with in each of your first 8 rounds on draft day...

First Round - Ryan Howard (6) vs. David Ortiz (11)
Howard - .313, 104, 58, 149, 0
Ortiz - .287, 115, 54, 137, 1

Yes, Howard is going 5 picks sooner than Big Papi, on average. But that's only because people expect he'll duplicate or even top his 2006 season, which was only slightly better than Ortiz's to begin with. Will he do it? Who knows? He could. Is it just as likely that he'll regress a little bit? Maybe (although Howard did have a monster second half). Here's the thing with Ortiz though. You know what you're going to get. He has been a model of excellence and consistency the last three years and for the first time in his career, he had more walks than strikeouts in '06, which means he's still getting better. And in some leagues, Ortiz even qualifies at first base. You can't go wrong with either guy here. The difference is, Ortiz will still be around if you have a late first-round pick. Howard won't. Advantage: Ortiz.

Second Round - Miguel Tejada (17) vs. Derek Jeter (19)
Tejada - .330, 99, 24, 100, 6
Jeter - .343, 118, 14, 97, 34

Tejada posted a career-high batting average last year. Jeter posted the second best batting average of his career last year. Tejada's home run total dropped for a third straight year. Jeter's home run total dropped for a third straight year. Their main difference is, Tejada doesn't run nearly as much as Jeter, whereas Jeter usually doesn't drive in that many runs. I'm giving Tejada the slight edge here just because I'm bullish on the Orioles. I think their lineup is the best it's been in a while, Miggy is happy, and he's going to have guys on in front of him. I wouldn't be that surprised if he comes close to his career-high of 150 RBI, set just two years ago. Jeter can do a lot of things, but he can't do that. Advantage: Tejada.

Third Round - Roy Halladay (35) vs. Roy Oswalt (36)
Halladay - 16, 0, 132, 3.19, 1.10
Oswalt - 15, 0, 166, 2.98, 1.17

I think this is the easiest one so far. Halladay has been in the league 8 years now, and he's made 30 or more starts just 3 times. Plus his strikeout total plummeted last year. Oswalt, on the on the other hard, has had 3 straight healthy seasons, owns a much lower career ERA, and should have won a lot more than 15 games last season. Carlos Lee should help in that department this year. Advantage: Oswalt.

Fourth Round - Paul Konerko (41) vs. Jermaine Dye (44)
Konerko - .313, 97, 35, 113, 1
Dye - .315, 103, 44, 120, 7

Seems like a no-brainer if you look at last year's numbers. Dye is slightly better in every category. But when you realize that Dye posted career-bests in almost all those categories, and consider the fact that 2006 was just another ho-hum season for Konerko, it makes you think twice. Plus, Konerko's batting average had gone up three straight years, and he's played in 150 games 5 of the last 6 years (as compared to twice in 11 seasons for Dye). Turns out this one is a no-brainer after all. Advantage: Konerko.

Fifth Round - Brian Roberts (50) vs. Robinson Cano (55)
Roberts - .286, 85, 10, 55, 36
Cano - .342, 62, 15, 78, 5

Here's what worries me about Cano...dude doesn't walk. Maybe it's because opposing pitchers are determined to pitch to him because they have A-Rod, Jeter, Giambi, Abreu, and others coming up next. Or maybe it's because he hasn't developed a keen eye yet. But in 1004 career AB's, he has 34 free passes. That makes me think he's going to have a hard time hitting well over .300 again with 600 at bats. I'd also like to have more than 5 steals from my second baseman. Roberts will steal you dozens of bases, flirt with 100 runs scored, and knock a dozen or so out of Camden Yards. How about that, another O. Advantage: Roberts.

Sixth Round - Daisuke Matsuzaka (65) vs. John Lackey (71)
Matsuzaka - 17, 0, 200, 2.13, 0.92 (for Japan's Seibu Lions)
Lackey - 13, 0, 190, 3.56, 1.26

This one is almost impossible because of all the unknowns. With the exception of the World Baseball Classic, Dice-K has never faced big league hitters and he's thrown 200+ innings just twice in 8 seasons in Japan. That, to me, doesn't inspire a whole lot of confidence. For what it's worth, he's had one bad outing and one good outing this spring against big league competition. Overall, he's allowed 3 earned over 7 with 6 strikeouts. As for Lackey, he's a proven workhorse on a good team. He's cut down on the gopher balls, lowered his ERA, and he's striking out more hitters. If you believe the hype and can live with a potential flop (like Hideki Irabu or Kaz Matsui), go with Matsuzaka. If you want to play it safe and play it dependable, go with Lackey. Advantage: Push.

Seventh Round - Nick Swisher (77) vs. Prince Fielder (81)
Swisher - .254, 106, 35, 95, 1
Fielder - .271, 82, 28, 81, 7

Swisher's doubles turned into home runs last year as he asserted himself as a big time power threat on an Oakland team that doesn't have much power left, now that Frank Thomas is north of the border. The 152 strikeouts worry me though. He did walk 97 times, which means he either walked, struck out of homered in 44% of his plate appearances. The real question is how much the wiffs go down, and how much the average goes up. Dual eligibility at first and the outfield helps too. Fielder quietly put together a nice little season that was held somewhat under the radar because of what Hanley Ramirez did in Florida. If his doubles turn into home runs this year, we're looking at 40+, with an average that's likely to be higher than Swisher's. Advantage: Fielder.

Eighth Round - Scott Kazmir (86) vs. Felix Hernandez (89)
Kazmir - 10, 0, 163, 3.24, 1.27
Hernandez - 12, 0, 176, 4.52, 1.34

If all things were equal, I'd take Kazmir in a heartbeat. But all things are not equal. Kazmir cannot seem to keep himself healthy. His season ended early last year and now he's complaining of shoulder stiffness again this year. He is a little guy (6 foot, 170 pounds) and I wonder if he's always going to be one bad pitch away from landing on the DL. That said, his numbers last season (10.1 K/9, 3.24 ERA, age 23) are eye-popping. Then there's Felix. He doesn't have Kazmir's size problem (he's 6 foot 3, 230 pounds). And he's 3 years younger than Kazmir. While 2006 did not exactly go his way (4.52 ERA, 12-14), there are some good signs. He made 31 starts, his strikeout to walk ratio is almost 3 to 1, he pitches in a cold, friendly park, and Seattle did add some offensive firepower this off-season. Like Fielder, I think he will be under the radar on draft day, and while he will still suffer through some growing pains this year, at least they won't be arm and body pains. Advantage: Hernandez.