I'm Back!

After a nearly one-year hiatus, I've decided to re-take-up (soooo not an actual English phrase) blogging. Sorry for the lack of posts in the last calendar year. I was...busy?
 
Okay...let's talk awards.  No beef so far with either of the Rookies of the Year (Coghlan and Bailey) or AL Cy Young winner, Zack Greinke.  It's a lock Albert Pujols wins NL MVP, so the only real drama seems to be NL Cy Young and AL MVP.


NL Cy Young 
In the senior circuit, it's essentially a race between Tim Lincecum, and whichever Cardinals starter you like better- Chris Carpenter or Adam Wainwright.  That said, here's a look at their numbers from this season in a way you probably haven't looked at them yet.  Based on the numbers they compiled throughout the course of the year, here is the average pitching line for each of our contenders in the 2009 season.



Lincecum- 7.04 IP, 5.25 H, 2.13 BB, 1.94 ER, 8.16 K's, 107.5 pitches

Carpenter- 6.88 IP, 5.57 H, 1.36 BB, 1.71 ER, 5.14 K's, 95.4 pitches

Wainwright- 6.85 IP, 6.35 H, 1.94 BB, 2.00 ER, 6.24 K's, 106.3 pitches



Looking at it this way, trendy stats like quality start percentage, WHIP, and batting average or OPS against take care of themselves.  


So what do we take away from these three average pitching lines?  Whose would you rather have?  Well, first-off we see Lincecum recorded an average of half an out more per start than his next closest competitor.  I like that a lot.  We also see that in terms of baserunners allowed per start (7.38 for Lincecum, 6.93 for Carpenter, 8.29 for Wainwright) Wainwright was the least impressive.  He didn't pitch as deep into games as the other two, took more pitches to get there than Carpenter and almost as many as Lincecum, plus he allowed the most runners by far.  To top it all off, Lincecum has the clear edge in strikeouts, which in some respects makes his higher walk rate less relevant.  And when you factor in Carpenter's 28 starts compared to 32 and 34 for Lincecum and Wainwright respectivley, it's a cakewalk as far as I'm concerned.  Lincecum was clearly the best of all NL pitchers in '09 with Carpenter second and Wainwright third.  The actual winner is announced today at 2PM.



AL MVP
Much tougher to quantify in my opinion because the main contenders- Derek Jeter, Joe Mauer, and Mark Teixeira are different kinds of players.  Jeter is your prototypical leadoff hitter who handles the bat well, sees lots of pitches, gets on base, runs and gives his team a 1-0 lead.  Mauer is a classic number two or three hitter- high average, lots of balls in play, good line drive stroke and tough to strike out.  And Tex is about as good of a middle-of-the-order, thumper type as you could ask for- a threat to go yard every time up with tons of RBI.  And all three won Gold Gloves this year (although some pundits have questioned whether any of them deserved it).


As a starting point, here are their basic numbers from 2009:


Jeter- .334 AVG, 18 HR, 66 RBI, 107 R, 30 SB, .871 OPS
Mauer- .365 AVG, 28 HR, 96 RBI, 94 R, 4 SB, 1.031 OPS
Teixeira- .292 AVG, 39 HR, 122 RBI, 103 R, 2 SB, .948 OPS


All very impressive.  


Digging deeper (because I am a firm believer that an MVP candidate finishes the season strong and has to get a lot of big hits throughout the course of the season) here are some other things to consider.  Jeter hit .351 after the break and had a .450 OBP in September, but hit just .259 in his 135 at-bats with men in scoring position.  Tex hit .313 after the break including a .343, 7 HR month of September.  He also hit .355 with 31 RBI in 62 at-bats with runners in scoring position and 2 outs.  And while he hit just .264 overall with men in scoring position, he also had an on-base percentage of more than .400 in that scenario.  So in those 174 at-bats, he had 46 hits and 39 walks- selective in that good Yankee lineup. 


Here's where Joe Mauer is no ordinary Joe, though.  He hit .358 in the second half, and had an OPS of at least .997 in each of the following situations: leading off an inning, nobody on, at least one baserunner on, runner(s) in scoring position, runner(s) in scoring position and 2 out, and the bases loaded.  To top it all off, in 113 at-bats in September and October while his team was in a dogfight to get into the postseason, he hit .354 with twice as many walks (24) as strikeouts (12).  And he did this while playing the most physically demanding position on the diamond.


It's because of that fact that I give the nod to Mauer for MVP with Tex second and Jeter a close third.  AL MVP will be announced Monday.

First Team All Free Agent

Let's just say the stove is getting hot.

C - Ivan Rodriguez (36; 13 Gold Gloves; 2,605 hits)
1b - Mark Teixeira (28; 2 Silver Sluggers, 2 Gold Gloves; .919 career OPS; 30 HR/100 RBI 5 straight seasons)
2b - Orlando Hudson (30; 2 Gold Gloves; .346 career OBP)
SS - Rafael Furcal (31; 20+ steals 8 of 9 seasons; .352 career OBP)
3b - Joe Crede (30; 1 Silver Slugger, 125 career HR)
OF - Manny Ramirez (36; 3 Silver Sluggers; 1.004 career OPS; 527 career HR)
OF - Adam Dunn (29; .381 career OBP; 40 HR/100 BB 5 straight seasons;
OF - Bobby Abreu (34; 1 Silver Slugger; 1 Gold Glove; .405 career OBP; 95 R/100 RBI 6 straight seasons)
DH - Pat Burrell (32; .367 career OBP; 251 career HR; 85 RBI/95 BB 4 straight seasons)
SP - C.C. Sabathia (28; 1 Cy Young; 117 career wins; 36 wins/460 K's last 2 seasons)
SP - A.J. Burnett (31; .235 career BAA; 87 career wins; 18 W/231 K in '08)
SP - Ben Sheets (30; 86 wins; 1.20 career WHIP; 7.6 career K/9)
RP - Francisco Rodriguiez (26; 208 career saves; 40 saves 4 straight seasons; 2.35 career ERA)

I've Had My Phil

Well, the Phillies are the champs, and despite the concerns of some fans in the City of Brotherly Love, Game 5 in all its suspended glory was every bit as dramatic and climactic as it would have been had it been completed Monday night. The pile on the mound was just as enthusiastic and the champagne was just as cold (I assume), so relax, naysayers.

As for individual players, you have to acknowledge the performance of Brad Lidge. A guy whose career as a dominant 9th inning man seemed all-but-over a few seasons ago is now alive and well, following a 48-for-48 season concerting saves including the postseason. He's not a Dennis Eckersley kind of closer. He's going to put guys on base and he's going to give up runs, but he's also going to pitch out of trouble and make hitters (Eric Hinske) look like they've never seen a slider before. For him to bounce back and do so in such convincing fashion speaks volumes about his character.

Speaking of character, they didn't talk about it at all during the game, but did anyone else see B.J. Upton not bust it out of the box on his double-play grounder in the 8th? This was a huge play in the game. The Rays were down a run and J.C. Romero gave up a leadoff single. So Upton had a chance to, at the very least, put a lightning-quick guy (Carl Crawford) in scoring position with one out and the heart of the order due up. But instead, he hit a weak grounder to short and, in my estimation, was not at top speed when the throw hit Ryan Howard's glove. Had this been just about any other hitter, I would have given him the benefit of the doubt, but since it's Upton, a guy who was benched multiple times this season for lack of hustle, I have to wonder what in the hell was going through his head. For someone who is allegedly one of the fastest runners in baseball, he grounded into 13 double plays during the regular season, plus 4 more in 5 World Series games. That's more than noted sloths Prince Fielder, Ryan Howard, Pat Burrell, Kevin Milar, Jack Cust, and Jason Giambi. It's also way more than his younger brother Justin, who hit into just 3 twin-killings in 417 plate appearances and his teammate Akinori Iwamura, who grounded into only 2 double plays in more than 700 plate appearances (yet Iwamura stole 8 bases this year compared to Upton's 44). Bottom line, while it wasn't as blatant, he tanked it again and on the biggest stage posible. Mark my words, this guy is not going to end up being as big of a superstar as everybody thinks.

Pat Burrell also didn't run hard on his leadoff double in the 7th because he thought he'd hit a go-ahead homerun, but in his defense, you don't want to make the first out at third in that situation. Plus, although perhaps not fairly, it's forgiven because pinch runner Eric Bruntlett ended up scoring.

This was also the first time I got to see David Price pitch live and I must say- wow. Mid-to-high 90's fastball that he can throw arm side and extension side, and that slider. His only downfall in '09, I fear, will be the leash the Rays keep him on with regards to innings and pitches thrown, and to a lesser extent occasionally spotty control.

Given everything he's been through this year, I also thought it was a nice moment when Rocco Baldelli hit a game-tying homerun off Ryan Madson in the top of the 7th. You have to wonder if Baldelli will have a more memorable moment in a career that's certain to be cut short. It's too bad for him that this bit hit was rendered meaningless in the bottom half of the inning.

Finally, for all the talk about matchups, bullpens, and shortening an already short Game 5 Wednesday night, did anybody else notice that no reliever had a 1-2-3 inning? A total of 7 different guys pitched 6 half-innings and not one of them could retire each guy he faced. I guess when it's all on the line and the wind chill is 25, even the best of the best become human.

In closing- good for the Phillies and good for Philadelphia. They were my favorite to win it all at the start of October (although I had them beating the Sox) and for many of the reasons I've previously highlighted (big boppers, speedsters, best bullpen, hottest starting pitcher), they made me look like I know what I'm talking about. I'm sure '09 will afford many opportunities for me to re-insert my foot in my mouth.

This Is Big

Tonight's start will the biggest in Scott Kazmir's life. The Rays cannot fall behind 2-0 with the series shifting to Fenway and Jon Lester waiting in the wings. They simply can't. So tonight at the Trop, it all comes down to the little lefty and his big arm.

For the record, it's been almost 3 months since he pitched more than 6 innings and in two September starts against the Red Sox (one at home, one on the road), he went 0-1 with a ERA of 11.00.

And did I mention Josh Beckett is pitching for Boston tonight?

Yeah, this one's big.

300

That's how many posts I've completed on the ol' Baseblogg in its year and three quarters of existence. And it's also the topic of this particular post.

.300 is largely considered to be the gold standard among hitters. And while it's a ridiculous notion that a .299 hitter is somehow a much worse hitter than somebody who hit a point higher, there's just something about that first number being a 3 that resonates with fans, sportswriters, agents, and potential suitors.

This year's batting champs, Joe Mauer and Chipper Jones, hit .328 and .364 respectively. Additionally, Mauer was one of 17 AL hitters to meet or exceed the magic number, while Jones was one of 14 in the senior circuit. When you add the 3 hitters who were traded mid-season but combined to hit .300 in all their at-bats this season (Manny Ramirez hit .332, Mark Teixeira hit .308, and Xavier Nady hit .305), that means just 34 of the qualifying 147 big league hitters this season were .300 hitters (apologies to Ryan Ludwick and his .299). 34 of 147 works out to 23.1%.

Just for fun, I looked at the last few years in the big leagues, and interestingly, the numbers are fairly consistent. Last year, 40 players hit .300 while 162 qualified (24.7%), the year before it was 38 out of 160 (23.8%), and in 2005 it was 33 of 148 (22.2%). 2004's rate was 22.3%, 2003's was 24.2%, and 2002's was 23.1%. In the few years after that, the ratio is a little closer to 30%, but I'm inclined to think something that rhymes with "beeroids" might have been afoot then.

So right now in the big leagues, less than a quarter of the hitters in the big leagues are considered "good hitters" if a "good hitter" to you is one who gets a hit at least 3 out of every 10 at bats- just something extra to ponder while you're watching the Sox and the Sox tonight.

My World Series

Now that we know the Mets and Twins will be spending their Octobers playing golf, it's time to break down the playoff matchups and make some predictions.

Just for a frame of reference, back when I made my preseason predictions in mid-February, I had the Red Sox winning the East, the Tigers taking the Central, and the Mariners winning the West with the Yankees taking the Wild Card. In the NL, I liked the Mets in the East, the Cubs in the Central, the D-Backs in the West, and the Dodgers to win the Wild Card. So, I was 1-8 in picking the exact winners, and 3-8 in picking playoff teams Ouch (although I did say I thought the Dodgers would beat the Red Sox, so that could still happen).

So now that the teams have been picked for me, my job shoudl be easier, right? We'll see. Anyway, in the Divisional Round I like the White Sox to beat the Rays, the Red Sox to beat the Angels, the Dodgers over the Cubs, and Phillies over the Brewers. The Chi Sox, frankly, showed me something the last few games. This is an experienced playoff team that knows how to win tight, do-or-die games. Plus, they can rake, and have a dynamite bullpen. Their lack of speed concerns me, though. Also, I guess I'm still not sold on the Rays pitching, at least not in the pressure-packed postseason. This series has the chance to go all 5, though. The only reason I'm picking Boston is because LA hasn't had to play a significant game in about 2 months. They've had a 10-game lead or bigger ever since. So in the rest vs. rust debate, I'm going with the latter. I also think Josh Beckett is going to show up big time. In the NL, I'm also going against the grain, picking against the Cubs. Don't get me wrong, I like Chicago and would love to see them finally win a World Series. I just don't trust Carlos Zambrano's emotions or Rich Harden's arm. Plus, LA is red-hot right now. And the Brewers, God love 'em, just don't have the pitching (starting or relief) to hang with the Phillies. They'll win Sabathia's start, but no other games.

In the League Championship round, I still like Boston in the battle of the Sox and I'm taking Philadelphia over the Dodgers. The Red Sox, for all their flaws (starting pitching questions, middle relief questions) are the superior team because unlike Chicago, they have the ability to manufacture runs- a must in the postseason. They have two dynamic MVP candidates and neither of them are named David Ortiz. And I don't see the Chi Sox doing particularly well at Fenway. And I like the Phillies because they are simply a more well-rounded club than the Dodgers. They have better starting pitching, more power, and better speed. Plus, Manny has to cool off at some point, right?

Finally, in the World Series, I'm going to go with the Phillies over the Red Sox. Few people seemed to notice that Brad Lidge was perfect in save chances this year and most people seem to have forgotten than Jimmy Rollins is a proud, reigning MVP. This team is dynamic offensively, comes at you with a number of looks on the mound, and plays its home games in a ballpark that really benefits guys like Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, and Pat Burrell. Sorry Terry Francona, I think your World Series game winning streak is not only going to come to an end in 2008, but I think you're going to lose 4 times.

Oh, Sheet(s)

Fresh off last night's big win against the Cubs, Big Ben (not Roethlisberger) is going to try to take the mound for the Brewers in a game that could send Milwaukee to the postseason for the first time since 1982. Mr. Sheets' last start (ironically, also against Chicago) ended with an early exit thanks to a sore elbow. But after taking the last 9 days off, he says he's ready to go. We'll see.

The Cubs will counter with Ted Lilly, who has also been named Chicago's NLDS Game 4 starter (if necessary). Last night, Chicago's NLDS Game 1 starter, Ryan Dempster, was pulled after just 5 innings and I wouldn't expect Lilly to throw for much more than 5 or 6 today. First pitch is at 3:35 this afternoon.

Sheets' comeback attempt is huge for several reasons. First, if the Brewers win and the Mets lose, the Wild Card race would be officially over. That's because the Mets didn't show up (again) last night and lost to the Marlins 6-1. New York has now lost 5 of its last 7, now sits 1 game back of the Wild Card and 2 back in the NL East with 2 to play (thanks to a win by the Phillies last night who are now a win, or a Mets loss away from clinching), and is on the verge of a second consecutive late-September meltdown, although this one is not nearly as cataclysmic as last year's.

The second reason a Sheets win and Mets loss would be huge for Milwaukee is that it would enable the Brew Crew to rest C.C. Sabathia until Game 1 of the NLDS against Philadelphia. Of course if Ben gets bounced, or the Mets win, it all comes down to Sunday.

Speaking of the Mets, in their desperate playoff push, it seems they've pushed Johan Santana up a day in the rotation, which makes sense because his start Sunday wouldn't mean a thing if his team loses Saturday. And faced with the alternatives of a not-quite-healthty John Maine and rookie Jonathon Niese, I'd say they're doing the right thing. Florida counters with ace Ricky Nolasco at 1:10 this afternoon, meaning the Brewers will likely know the outcome of that game when they take the field for theirs.

In the AL, the Twins and White Sox both lost, meaning Minnesota still has a half-game lead. No matter what happens today, nobody will be able to clinch because the Sox have played one fewer game than the Twins. The only way Ozzie Guillen's team won't play Monday's make-up against Detroit is if Chicago is a game and a half up, or a game and a half down in the Central on Sunday.

Unlike in the NL, today's pitching matchups are unchanged. It's Glen Perkins for the Twins against Gil Meche of the Royals, and Javy Vazquez for the Sox against rookie Zach Jackson for the Tribe.

Stay tuned...

This Is Just Nuts!

In honor of Ryan Braun's Brandy-Chastain-like celebration last night, I was going to call this post "Crunch Time" because obviously somebody's been doing his core-strengthening exercises. But I think the headline I went with works too.

Here's the deal. There are three days left in the regular season. That's it. And yet somehow, we are still waiting to find out who will win two different divisional races and one Wild Card spot.

Last night, the Twins beat the White Sox in extra innings to complete an improbable sweep and now lead the AL Central by half a game. They're at home this weekend against the Kansas City Royals. The Sox are also home this weekend against Cleveland, and then have to host a make-up game Monday against the Detroit Tigers, although there's a chance it won't mean anything if the Twins win one more game than the Sox do this weekend.

Then in the NL, the Mets and Brewers both had walk-off wins at home, meaning the Wild Card stalemate continues. And the Phillies had an off-day, so they still lead the East by a full game.

So in short, we have 3 playoff spots open and 5 teams with very real shots at earning them.

Back to the AL, the Twins will throw Francisco Liriano (1-0, 4.56 ERA in his last two starts) against Kyle Davies (2-0, 1.20 ERA in his last two) tonight. Saturday, it's Glen Perkins for the Twins (9.42 ERA in September) against Gil Meche (10 of his last 13 appearances have been quality starts). Then Sunday, it's Minnestoa's Scott Baker (winner of his last 3 decisions) against Brandon Duckworth (who's thrown back-to-back quality starts). The Royals are not pushovers. In fact, they've won 12 times in their last 15 games, so the Twins aren't going to sweep them. And I wouldn't be shocked if the Royals go 2-1, meaning the Twins would finish up at 88-74.

The Sox, who've lost 7 of 10, will go with John Danks tonight (13 consecutive scoreless innings) against rookie Scott Lewis (who's won his first 3 big league starts). Saturday, it's Javy Vazquez (coming off back-to-back losses) against rookie Zach Jackson (up and down since being acquired in the Sabathia trade). And then Sunday it's a real treat with Mark Buehrle (5 straight quality starts) against Cliff Lee (who lost Tuesday for the first time since July 6). Monday's game against the Tigers is scheduled to be Gavin Floyd (5.20 September ERA) against Freddy Garcia (1-1, 4.50 ERA in 2 starts this season). Before dropping 3 of 4 in Boston, the Tribe had won 7 in a row and the Tigers would like nothing more than to ruin Chicago's season (it's really all they have left to play for), so a 1-3 finish for the Northsiders is not out of the realm of possibility. My guess is, they finish 87-75 and miss October by 1 game.

In the NL, the Phillies host the Nats for 3. They have Joe Blanton (3-0 in his last 3 decisions), Jamie Moyer (5-0 in his last 5 decisions), and then Cole Hamels (2.98 ERA post All-Start break) slated to throw against rookie Collin Balester (3 quality starts in 14 tries the year), John Lannan (2 earned in his last 14 IP), and Odalis Perez (fresh off back-to-back quality starts). I think the Phillies easily win the series, and could even sweep. So at 92-70 or 91-71, they'll win the East.

That leaves the Mets and Brewers to slug it out for the Wild Card. New York hosts Floirida, who finished their season last year. The Mets will go with Mike Pelfrey (7 quality starts in last 8), rookie Jonathon Niese (1 great start, 2 bad starts in his brief career) and Johan Santana (6-0, 2.38 ERA since the break) against Chris Volstad (3 earned or fewer in each of his last 5 starts), Ricky Nolasco (11 straight quality starts) and Scott Olsen (3.38 ERA in September). I think the Mets will lose Saturday and win Sunday, so it all comes down to tonight. Pelfrey v. Volstad is too close to call right now. So they'll end up either 90-72 or 89-73, pending tonight's outcome.

Finally, the Brew Crew hosts the Central-champion Cubs, who really have nothing to play for and could adopt a "don't get hurt" mentality in this series. In other words, it would appear Milwaukee has the advantage. But they will throw Jeff Suppan (10.47 ERA this month) against NLDS Game 1 starter Ryan Dempster (2.57 ERA since the break) tonight, David Bush (6 IP or fewer in his last 3 starts) against Ted Lilly (7 IP or more in his last 3 starts) Saturday, and then C.C. Sabathia (10-2, 1.78 ERA since being traded, but making his 4th start in 13 days) against Jason Marquis (who lost to the Brewers a week and a half ago) in the finale. Certainly Suppan against Dempster appears to favor the Cubs as does the Bush/Lilly matchup Saturday. Sunday is a tough call. Sabathia's been great, but he's been a bit more human this month (2.67 ERA) and you have to wonder if pitching on short rest for the 3rd turn in a row will take a toll on his stuff. Then again, will Lou Piniella play all his starters for all 9 innings? And will his pitchers be allowed to go deep into games? I know he doesn't want to get swept going into the playoffs, but a win and two losses in these unimportant games would be perfectly acceptable. My prediction is, the Cubs win tonight, lose Saturday, then lose Sunday, making Milwaukee 90-72. It sure will be fun to scoreboard-watch Sunday though as two of the best pitchers in the game try to propel their teams into October, but in my mind, the Brewers have a slight advantage over the Mets as we close out the season.

Down The Stretch They Come!

Not all teams have the luxury of being able to rest and set up their playoff starting rotations like the L.A. Angels. Others (in fact almost all the other potentially playoff-bound teams) have something to play for, even though there's only a week and a half left in the season.

In the AL East, Tampa now has a full one game lead over the Sox with yet another late-inning rally last night- the third time they've done it to them in the last 8 days! These two hook up again tonight (Wakefield vs. Garza) but don't play again in the regular season, and may not play each other again until spring training '09. Including tonight, the Sox have 11 games left, with 7 at home to close the season when the Indians and Yankees come to town. For Tampa, they host Minnesota then end on the road with 4 in Baltimore and 4 in Detroit. So by virtue of the home/away factor the rest of the way, plus the fact that the Rays have 13 games left rather than 11, I'll give the edge to the Sox here and guess they'll sneak in and win the East, with Tampa getting the Wild Card. Although if the Rays rough up Wakefield tonight, they'll be a full two up with 12 to go and that could complicate things. By the way, they're 7-1 against the Sox at home this year.

In the Central, the Sox got back to their winning ways and the Twins stuck to their losing ways, enabling Ozzie Guillen and Co. to extend their lead to 2.5 games. They have two more in New York, followed by an easy-to-look-past series in Kansas City before heading to Minnesota for what will likely be a do-or-die 3 game series for the Twins. They return home for their final 3 of '08 against Cleveland...a total of 11 games. Minnesota has a tough road ahead. Tonight, they'll try to avoid a sweep and a 4-game losing streak at Cleveland and it won't be easy because Cliff Lee is on the bump. Then, it's off to Tampa for 4 before closing out their season at home with those 3 against the Sox and then another 3 against KC. Unless they right the ship soon, their series with the Sox might be "sweep or bust," so the smart money's on Chicago to win the Central.

In the NL East last night, the Phillies, winners of 5 in a row, leap-frogged the Mets, losers of 3 in a row. And there's not much reason to think they can't continue their hot play the next 11 games. They have two more in Atlanta, then 3 in Florida, before a pair of 3-game home series with the Braves and Nationals. The road series with the Fish could be tricky, but everybody else is well below .500. The Mets have made things especially difficult on themselves because this is the so-called easy part of the remainder of their schedule. They have 2 more at Washington, then 3 at Atlanta. But those two clubs alone have taken 4 out of 5 from them since Saturday. Then for 4 games, they host the team with the NL's best record- the Cubs, before finishing up at home against the Marlins. It crazy to think it could happen again this year, but I don't see the Phillies squandering their lead, small as it is. But that doesn't mean the Mets will be golfing in October. They'll just need some help from the NL Central.

In that division, the Cubs all-but have it locked up. But the real drama surrounds the Wild Card. And what's interesting is- nobody seems to want it. The Brewers lost one of C.C. Sabathia's starts last night for just the second time since acquiring him (which is also their 5th loss in a row) and are now a half game behind New York (losers of 3 in a row) for the Wild Card. Houston (losers of 3 in a row) is now 3 back, and the Cardinals (losers of 6 in a row) and Marlins (winners of 6 in a row) are teetering on the brink of elimination as they sit 5 back. Milwaukee has 2 more at Chicago, 3 at Cincinnati, then 3 at home with Pittsburgh and 3 at home with those Cubs again. They're 9 back of the Cubs right now, so all those late-season games with the division leader are more of a punishment than an opportunity to make up ground. The 'Stros are on the road with the Fish, then close with 3 at Pittsburgh, 3 versus Cincinnati and 3 versus Atlanta. St. Louis, like the Mets, picked a bad time to hit the skids because the rest of their schedule is significantly harder than the stretch they're in right now. They have 2 more at Cincinnati, 3 at Chicago, 4 at home with Arizona (which will likely be must-wins for both teams) and finally 3 at home with the Reds. Getting swept at Pittsburgh last week killed them. As for the hot Marlins, don't count them out yet- but it's hard to imagine them continuing their "2007 Rockies" act much longer. They have 2 more with Houston (they could move into 3rd place in the Wild Card if they win both of these), then they host the Phillies, visit the Reds for one, then end up at the Reds and at the Mets. Wouldn't it be crazy if the Marlins ended the Mets season, in New York, again in 2008? This race is a bit too close to call at the moment, but with C.C. and Ben Sheets getting the ball for 5 of the Crew's last 11, I like their odds.

Out West, it's much less complicated. The Dodgers are up 4.5 games with 11 to play, and those 11 are against the Pirates, Giants, and Padres. The division is theirs to lose. Arizona's pair of extra inning losses with the Reds sting a little bit extra now, especially on the heels of being swept in L.A. And even with Webb and Haren seemingly back on track, they'll need to win just about all of their remaining 12 games to make the postseason.

Awards, Still Watching And Waiting

At this time last year, just about all of the major awards were either completely decided, or down to a two-man race. A-Rod, we all knew, was going to breeze to the AL MVP. Jake Peavy, we all knew, was going to breeze to NL Cy Young Award. And for awards like AL Cy Young, NL MVP and NL ROY, it was basically a voter coin-flip between, respectively, C.C. Sabathia and Josh Beckett, Jimmy Rollins and Matt Holliday, and Ryan Braun and Troy Tulowitzki.

If it was just that easy last year, it's just that hard this year because for a number of big awards, there is still no clear-cut favorite even though most teams have a little more than 10 games to play. That said, I'll start with some easy ones, like AL Cy Young. Cliff Lee and his baseball-leading win total and ERA should trump Roy Halladay for AL Cy Young, although it's worth pointing out Halladay has many more K's, a slightly better WHIP, a lower batting average against, and has been getting a run and a half less support than Lee all season.

For AL ROY, I'm still giving the nod to Evan Longoria, although this vote won't be as lopsided as it appeared a few weeks ago. Longoria has just 11 at-bats since August 8th because of an injury and in that time, his team's lead in the East has slipped from 3.5 games down to percentage points. Still, he's hitting, hitting for power, and playing great defense at third. That's not to take away from Jacoby Ellsbury who is closing in on 50 steals and 90 runs scored for the Sox, but I think Longoria is the more complete player right now.

And for NL ROY, Geovanny Soto (who really only has competition from Joey Votto of Cincinnati) should win this award unanimously. His OPS is .872, he has 58 extra base hits, and he's the All-Star backstop on the NL team with the best record.

Here's where it gets tricky...AL MVP. At the break, it looked like somebody from Texas was going to win this- either Ian Kinsler or Josh Hamilton. The problem now is, Kinsler hit under .260 in 120 post ASB at-bats before being shut down for the season following hernia surgery. And Hamilton, who's currently tied for the big league RBI lead, has seen his run production slow significantly from his torrid pre-break pace. That's allowed others to begin to enter the discussion, including Carlos Quentin, Justin Morneau, Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis, and Grady Sizemore.

Personally, I eliminate Quentin right off the bat because he broke his own hand on a bat in early September in the midst of a peannant race. I don't care if he is leading the AL in homeruns, I can't think of what's less valuable than that. Nobody has more RBI than Morneau, he has 3 more strikeouts than walks, and even though he's slowed in the second half too, his numbers close and late, with men on, and with men in scoring position are all excellent. Pedroia and Youkilis will likely hurt each other in the voting, although they've been the most consistent Sox hitters all year. Pedroia leads the AL in runs, has hit over .350 in the second half, his pressure splits (runners on, close and late) are very good, you have to love the 48 walks and 48 strikeouts, he plays a marvelous second base, and you might be surprised to learn he has more extra base hits than both Manny and A-Rod. Youkilis has more extra base hits than Pedroia to go along with 100+ RBI. His OPS is 4th in the AL, and his splits, while not quite as good as Pedroia, are still excellent. Then there's a man named Grady who will end up as the only 30-30 guy in the AL this year. The 93 walks are great and he's third in the AL in extra base hits. But he's slowed way down in the second half, his splits are good but not great, and he's not on a contender. If I had to vote today, I'd go...Morneau, Pedroia, Youkilis, Hamilton, Sizemore.

It gets even messier in the NL because it raises the question of exactly where astronomically productive mid-season acquisitions should fit into the discussion of awards that measure a full season's production in one league. With NL MVP, clearly Albert Pujols and his MLB-best 1.115 OPS is having another extraordinary year (not to mention the fact that he's doing it with one elbow). Chipper Jones, Lance Berkman, David Wright, Ryan Braun...they've all put up unbelievable numbers too. Then there's Manny. And to use a tired phrase, he's just being Manny again. Since switching leagues and joining the Dodgers 42 games ago, he's hitting .395 with 14 homeruns, 43 RBI, 29 runs scored, and a 1.221 OPS. And perhaps more convincing, his team went from being 2 back in the NL West to 4.5 up in the NL West! But what about the 100 games where he was in the other league? That's more than 60% of the season. Does that count for nothing? Complicating matters even further is C.C. Sabathia. Not only is he a pitcher (and thus, according to some, not a viable MVP candidate) but he too is a mid-season league changer. But he's also been a game-changer. In his 13 starts for the Brewers, he's 9-0 with a 1.59 ERA, 6 complete games, 3 shutouts, a nearly 5:1 strikeout to walk ratio, and Milwaukee is 12-1 in those games. Can a player be more valuable than that? When he pitches, his team wins 92% of the time! Then again, he also made 18 starts for the Indians, which for a starting pitcher, accounts for slightly more than half a season.

And if you don't like Sabathia for MVP, how about Cy Young? There, he's competing against a smaller field of worthy candidates, but Tim Lincecum (17 wins, ML-best 237 K's, NL-best 2.43 ERA) and Brandon Webb (NL-best 20 wins and unlike Lincecum, in a playoff chase) are stiff competition.

My feeling is, as good as Ramirez has been, there are other NL hitters who've (a) been in the league all season and (b) been as hot as Manny for as long of a stretch, like, for example, Mr. Pujols (see April and May, or the month of August). He's kept his team in the race (along with the help of Ryan Ludwick) a lot longer than they should have hung around, he's hitting over .370 in the second half, his splits are great, and his OPS is silly. It's almost 80 points higher than anyone else in baseball.

For Cy Young, Lincecum's numbers are by far the most superior of the group, but his team is 10 games back and really hasn't factored into the playoff picture all season. In other words, are his numbers worth inherently less than the numbers of a playoff-bound, or playoff-pushing pitcher? They just might be. Then again, Cy Young tends to focus more on the pitcher and not his team. That's why, no matter what happens, I think Lincecum should win this award.

But that doesn't mean C.C. gets shut out. By my math, he has 3 starts left this season, two of which will come against the division leading Cubs, and one of which will be on the second-to-last game of the season. If he wins all three he'd finish 12-0 with an ERA right around 2.00. If that happens, and the Brewers make the playoffs, I don't see how you give the MVP to somebody else. He will have been a Brewer for half the season, he will have put this team on his back and gotten them into the playoffs (again, if he finishes 3-0, the Crew will be 15-1 in his starts). No other NL player will have had such a meaningful impact on his team in 2008. Of course, if he gets bombed tonight, all bets are off. But somehow, I doubt that's going to happen.