First Team All Free Agent

Let's just say the stove is getting hot.

C - Ivan Rodriguez (36; 13 Gold Gloves; 2,605 hits)
1b - Mark Teixeira (28; 2 Silver Sluggers, 2 Gold Gloves; .919 career OPS; 30 HR/100 RBI 5 straight seasons)
2b - Orlando Hudson (30; 2 Gold Gloves; .346 career OBP)
SS - Rafael Furcal (31; 20+ steals 8 of 9 seasons; .352 career OBP)
3b - Joe Crede (30; 1 Silver Slugger, 125 career HR)
OF - Manny Ramirez (36; 3 Silver Sluggers; 1.004 career OPS; 527 career HR)
OF - Adam Dunn (29; .381 career OBP; 40 HR/100 BB 5 straight seasons;
OF - Bobby Abreu (34; 1 Silver Slugger; 1 Gold Glove; .405 career OBP; 95 R/100 RBI 6 straight seasons)
DH - Pat Burrell (32; .367 career OBP; 251 career HR; 85 RBI/95 BB 4 straight seasons)
SP - C.C. Sabathia (28; 1 Cy Young; 117 career wins; 36 wins/460 K's last 2 seasons)
SP - A.J. Burnett (31; .235 career BAA; 87 career wins; 18 W/231 K in '08)
SP - Ben Sheets (30; 86 wins; 1.20 career WHIP; 7.6 career K/9)
RP - Francisco Rodriguiez (26; 208 career saves; 40 saves 4 straight seasons; 2.35 career ERA)

I've Had My Phil

Well, the Phillies are the champs, and despite the concerns of some fans in the City of Brotherly Love, Game 5 in all its suspended glory was every bit as dramatic and climactic as it would have been had it been completed Monday night. The pile on the mound was just as enthusiastic and the champagne was just as cold (I assume), so relax, naysayers.

As for individual players, you have to acknowledge the performance of Brad Lidge. A guy whose career as a dominant 9th inning man seemed all-but-over a few seasons ago is now alive and well, following a 48-for-48 season concerting saves including the postseason. He's not a Dennis Eckersley kind of closer. He's going to put guys on base and he's going to give up runs, but he's also going to pitch out of trouble and make hitters (Eric Hinske) look like they've never seen a slider before. For him to bounce back and do so in such convincing fashion speaks volumes about his character.

Speaking of character, they didn't talk about it at all during the game, but did anyone else see B.J. Upton not bust it out of the box on his double-play grounder in the 8th? This was a huge play in the game. The Rays were down a run and J.C. Romero gave up a leadoff single. So Upton had a chance to, at the very least, put a lightning-quick guy (Carl Crawford) in scoring position with one out and the heart of the order due up. But instead, he hit a weak grounder to short and, in my estimation, was not at top speed when the throw hit Ryan Howard's glove. Had this been just about any other hitter, I would have given him the benefit of the doubt, but since it's Upton, a guy who was benched multiple times this season for lack of hustle, I have to wonder what in the hell was going through his head. For someone who is allegedly one of the fastest runners in baseball, he grounded into 13 double plays during the regular season, plus 4 more in 5 World Series games. That's more than noted sloths Prince Fielder, Ryan Howard, Pat Burrell, Kevin Milar, Jack Cust, and Jason Giambi. It's also way more than his younger brother Justin, who hit into just 3 twin-killings in 417 plate appearances and his teammate Akinori Iwamura, who grounded into only 2 double plays in more than 700 plate appearances (yet Iwamura stole 8 bases this year compared to Upton's 44). Bottom line, while it wasn't as blatant, he tanked it again and on the biggest stage posible. Mark my words, this guy is not going to end up being as big of a superstar as everybody thinks.

Pat Burrell also didn't run hard on his leadoff double in the 7th because he thought he'd hit a go-ahead homerun, but in his defense, you don't want to make the first out at third in that situation. Plus, although perhaps not fairly, it's forgiven because pinch runner Eric Bruntlett ended up scoring.

This was also the first time I got to see David Price pitch live and I must say- wow. Mid-to-high 90's fastball that he can throw arm side and extension side, and that slider. His only downfall in '09, I fear, will be the leash the Rays keep him on with regards to innings and pitches thrown, and to a lesser extent occasionally spotty control.

Given everything he's been through this year, I also thought it was a nice moment when Rocco Baldelli hit a game-tying homerun off Ryan Madson in the top of the 7th. You have to wonder if Baldelli will have a more memorable moment in a career that's certain to be cut short. It's too bad for him that this bit hit was rendered meaningless in the bottom half of the inning.

Finally, for all the talk about matchups, bullpens, and shortening an already short Game 5 Wednesday night, did anybody else notice that no reliever had a 1-2-3 inning? A total of 7 different guys pitched 6 half-innings and not one of them could retire each guy he faced. I guess when it's all on the line and the wind chill is 25, even the best of the best become human.

In closing- good for the Phillies and good for Philadelphia. They were my favorite to win it all at the start of October (although I had them beating the Sox) and for many of the reasons I've previously highlighted (big boppers, speedsters, best bullpen, hottest starting pitcher), they made me look like I know what I'm talking about. I'm sure '09 will afford many opportunities for me to re-insert my foot in my mouth.

This Is Big

Tonight's start will the biggest in Scott Kazmir's life. The Rays cannot fall behind 2-0 with the series shifting to Fenway and Jon Lester waiting in the wings. They simply can't. So tonight at the Trop, it all comes down to the little lefty and his big arm.

For the record, it's been almost 3 months since he pitched more than 6 innings and in two September starts against the Red Sox (one at home, one on the road), he went 0-1 with a ERA of 11.00.

And did I mention Josh Beckett is pitching for Boston tonight?

Yeah, this one's big.

300

That's how many posts I've completed on the ol' Baseblogg in its year and three quarters of existence. And it's also the topic of this particular post.

.300 is largely considered to be the gold standard among hitters. And while it's a ridiculous notion that a .299 hitter is somehow a much worse hitter than somebody who hit a point higher, there's just something about that first number being a 3 that resonates with fans, sportswriters, agents, and potential suitors.

This year's batting champs, Joe Mauer and Chipper Jones, hit .328 and .364 respectively. Additionally, Mauer was one of 17 AL hitters to meet or exceed the magic number, while Jones was one of 14 in the senior circuit. When you add the 3 hitters who were traded mid-season but combined to hit .300 in all their at-bats this season (Manny Ramirez hit .332, Mark Teixeira hit .308, and Xavier Nady hit .305), that means just 34 of the qualifying 147 big league hitters this season were .300 hitters (apologies to Ryan Ludwick and his .299). 34 of 147 works out to 23.1%.

Just for fun, I looked at the last few years in the big leagues, and interestingly, the numbers are fairly consistent. Last year, 40 players hit .300 while 162 qualified (24.7%), the year before it was 38 out of 160 (23.8%), and in 2005 it was 33 of 148 (22.2%). 2004's rate was 22.3%, 2003's was 24.2%, and 2002's was 23.1%. In the few years after that, the ratio is a little closer to 30%, but I'm inclined to think something that rhymes with "beeroids" might have been afoot then.

So right now in the big leagues, less than a quarter of the hitters in the big leagues are considered "good hitters" if a "good hitter" to you is one who gets a hit at least 3 out of every 10 at bats- just something extra to ponder while you're watching the Sox and the Sox tonight.

My World Series

Now that we know the Mets and Twins will be spending their Octobers playing golf, it's time to break down the playoff matchups and make some predictions.

Just for a frame of reference, back when I made my preseason predictions in mid-February, I had the Red Sox winning the East, the Tigers taking the Central, and the Mariners winning the West with the Yankees taking the Wild Card. In the NL, I liked the Mets in the East, the Cubs in the Central, the D-Backs in the West, and the Dodgers to win the Wild Card. So, I was 1-8 in picking the exact winners, and 3-8 in picking playoff teams Ouch (although I did say I thought the Dodgers would beat the Red Sox, so that could still happen).

So now that the teams have been picked for me, my job shoudl be easier, right? We'll see. Anyway, in the Divisional Round I like the White Sox to beat the Rays, the Red Sox to beat the Angels, the Dodgers over the Cubs, and Phillies over the Brewers. The Chi Sox, frankly, showed me something the last few games. This is an experienced playoff team that knows how to win tight, do-or-die games. Plus, they can rake, and have a dynamite bullpen. Their lack of speed concerns me, though. Also, I guess I'm still not sold on the Rays pitching, at least not in the pressure-packed postseason. This series has the chance to go all 5, though. The only reason I'm picking Boston is because LA hasn't had to play a significant game in about 2 months. They've had a 10-game lead or bigger ever since. So in the rest vs. rust debate, I'm going with the latter. I also think Josh Beckett is going to show up big time. In the NL, I'm also going against the grain, picking against the Cubs. Don't get me wrong, I like Chicago and would love to see them finally win a World Series. I just don't trust Carlos Zambrano's emotions or Rich Harden's arm. Plus, LA is red-hot right now. And the Brewers, God love 'em, just don't have the pitching (starting or relief) to hang with the Phillies. They'll win Sabathia's start, but no other games.

In the League Championship round, I still like Boston in the battle of the Sox and I'm taking Philadelphia over the Dodgers. The Red Sox, for all their flaws (starting pitching questions, middle relief questions) are the superior team because unlike Chicago, they have the ability to manufacture runs- a must in the postseason. They have two dynamic MVP candidates and neither of them are named David Ortiz. And I don't see the Chi Sox doing particularly well at Fenway. And I like the Phillies because they are simply a more well-rounded club than the Dodgers. They have better starting pitching, more power, and better speed. Plus, Manny has to cool off at some point, right?

Finally, in the World Series, I'm going to go with the Phillies over the Red Sox. Few people seemed to notice that Brad Lidge was perfect in save chances this year and most people seem to have forgotten than Jimmy Rollins is a proud, reigning MVP. This team is dynamic offensively, comes at you with a number of looks on the mound, and plays its home games in a ballpark that really benefits guys like Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, and Pat Burrell. Sorry Terry Francona, I think your World Series game winning streak is not only going to come to an end in 2008, but I think you're going to lose 4 times.

Oh, Sheet(s)

Fresh off last night's big win against the Cubs, Big Ben (not Roethlisberger) is going to try to take the mound for the Brewers in a game that could send Milwaukee to the postseason for the first time since 1982. Mr. Sheets' last start (ironically, also against Chicago) ended with an early exit thanks to a sore elbow. But after taking the last 9 days off, he says he's ready to go. We'll see.

The Cubs will counter with Ted Lilly, who has also been named Chicago's NLDS Game 4 starter (if necessary). Last night, Chicago's NLDS Game 1 starter, Ryan Dempster, was pulled after just 5 innings and I wouldn't expect Lilly to throw for much more than 5 or 6 today. First pitch is at 3:35 this afternoon.

Sheets' comeback attempt is huge for several reasons. First, if the Brewers win and the Mets lose, the Wild Card race would be officially over. That's because the Mets didn't show up (again) last night and lost to the Marlins 6-1. New York has now lost 5 of its last 7, now sits 1 game back of the Wild Card and 2 back in the NL East with 2 to play (thanks to a win by the Phillies last night who are now a win, or a Mets loss away from clinching), and is on the verge of a second consecutive late-September meltdown, although this one is not nearly as cataclysmic as last year's.

The second reason a Sheets win and Mets loss would be huge for Milwaukee is that it would enable the Brew Crew to rest C.C. Sabathia until Game 1 of the NLDS against Philadelphia. Of course if Ben gets bounced, or the Mets win, it all comes down to Sunday.

Speaking of the Mets, in their desperate playoff push, it seems they've pushed Johan Santana up a day in the rotation, which makes sense because his start Sunday wouldn't mean a thing if his team loses Saturday. And faced with the alternatives of a not-quite-healthty John Maine and rookie Jonathon Niese, I'd say they're doing the right thing. Florida counters with ace Ricky Nolasco at 1:10 this afternoon, meaning the Brewers will likely know the outcome of that game when they take the field for theirs.

In the AL, the Twins and White Sox both lost, meaning Minnesota still has a half-game lead. No matter what happens today, nobody will be able to clinch because the Sox have played one fewer game than the Twins. The only way Ozzie Guillen's team won't play Monday's make-up against Detroit is if Chicago is a game and a half up, or a game and a half down in the Central on Sunday.

Unlike in the NL, today's pitching matchups are unchanged. It's Glen Perkins for the Twins against Gil Meche of the Royals, and Javy Vazquez for the Sox against rookie Zach Jackson for the Tribe.

Stay tuned...

This Is Just Nuts!

In honor of Ryan Braun's Brandy-Chastain-like celebration last night, I was going to call this post "Crunch Time" because obviously somebody's been doing his core-strengthening exercises. But I think the headline I went with works too.

Here's the deal. There are three days left in the regular season. That's it. And yet somehow, we are still waiting to find out who will win two different divisional races and one Wild Card spot.

Last night, the Twins beat the White Sox in extra innings to complete an improbable sweep and now lead the AL Central by half a game. They're at home this weekend against the Kansas City Royals. The Sox are also home this weekend against Cleveland, and then have to host a make-up game Monday against the Detroit Tigers, although there's a chance it won't mean anything if the Twins win one more game than the Sox do this weekend.

Then in the NL, the Mets and Brewers both had walk-off wins at home, meaning the Wild Card stalemate continues. And the Phillies had an off-day, so they still lead the East by a full game.

So in short, we have 3 playoff spots open and 5 teams with very real shots at earning them.

Back to the AL, the Twins will throw Francisco Liriano (1-0, 4.56 ERA in his last two starts) against Kyle Davies (2-0, 1.20 ERA in his last two) tonight. Saturday, it's Glen Perkins for the Twins (9.42 ERA in September) against Gil Meche (10 of his last 13 appearances have been quality starts). Then Sunday, it's Minnestoa's Scott Baker (winner of his last 3 decisions) against Brandon Duckworth (who's thrown back-to-back quality starts). The Royals are not pushovers. In fact, they've won 12 times in their last 15 games, so the Twins aren't going to sweep them. And I wouldn't be shocked if the Royals go 2-1, meaning the Twins would finish up at 88-74.

The Sox, who've lost 7 of 10, will go with John Danks tonight (13 consecutive scoreless innings) against rookie Scott Lewis (who's won his first 3 big league starts). Saturday, it's Javy Vazquez (coming off back-to-back losses) against rookie Zach Jackson (up and down since being acquired in the Sabathia trade). And then Sunday it's a real treat with Mark Buehrle (5 straight quality starts) against Cliff Lee (who lost Tuesday for the first time since July 6). Monday's game against the Tigers is scheduled to be Gavin Floyd (5.20 September ERA) against Freddy Garcia (1-1, 4.50 ERA in 2 starts this season). Before dropping 3 of 4 in Boston, the Tribe had won 7 in a row and the Tigers would like nothing more than to ruin Chicago's season (it's really all they have left to play for), so a 1-3 finish for the Northsiders is not out of the realm of possibility. My guess is, they finish 87-75 and miss October by 1 game.

In the NL, the Phillies host the Nats for 3. They have Joe Blanton (3-0 in his last 3 decisions), Jamie Moyer (5-0 in his last 5 decisions), and then Cole Hamels (2.98 ERA post All-Start break) slated to throw against rookie Collin Balester (3 quality starts in 14 tries the year), John Lannan (2 earned in his last 14 IP), and Odalis Perez (fresh off back-to-back quality starts). I think the Phillies easily win the series, and could even sweep. So at 92-70 or 91-71, they'll win the East.

That leaves the Mets and Brewers to slug it out for the Wild Card. New York hosts Floirida, who finished their season last year. The Mets will go with Mike Pelfrey (7 quality starts in last 8), rookie Jonathon Niese (1 great start, 2 bad starts in his brief career) and Johan Santana (6-0, 2.38 ERA since the break) against Chris Volstad (3 earned or fewer in each of his last 5 starts), Ricky Nolasco (11 straight quality starts) and Scott Olsen (3.38 ERA in September). I think the Mets will lose Saturday and win Sunday, so it all comes down to tonight. Pelfrey v. Volstad is too close to call right now. So they'll end up either 90-72 or 89-73, pending tonight's outcome.

Finally, the Brew Crew hosts the Central-champion Cubs, who really have nothing to play for and could adopt a "don't get hurt" mentality in this series. In other words, it would appear Milwaukee has the advantage. But they will throw Jeff Suppan (10.47 ERA this month) against NLDS Game 1 starter Ryan Dempster (2.57 ERA since the break) tonight, David Bush (6 IP or fewer in his last 3 starts) against Ted Lilly (7 IP or more in his last 3 starts) Saturday, and then C.C. Sabathia (10-2, 1.78 ERA since being traded, but making his 4th start in 13 days) against Jason Marquis (who lost to the Brewers a week and a half ago) in the finale. Certainly Suppan against Dempster appears to favor the Cubs as does the Bush/Lilly matchup Saturday. Sunday is a tough call. Sabathia's been great, but he's been a bit more human this month (2.67 ERA) and you have to wonder if pitching on short rest for the 3rd turn in a row will take a toll on his stuff. Then again, will Lou Piniella play all his starters for all 9 innings? And will his pitchers be allowed to go deep into games? I know he doesn't want to get swept going into the playoffs, but a win and two losses in these unimportant games would be perfectly acceptable. My prediction is, the Cubs win tonight, lose Saturday, then lose Sunday, making Milwaukee 90-72. It sure will be fun to scoreboard-watch Sunday though as two of the best pitchers in the game try to propel their teams into October, but in my mind, the Brewers have a slight advantage over the Mets as we close out the season.

Down The Stretch They Come!

Not all teams have the luxury of being able to rest and set up their playoff starting rotations like the L.A. Angels. Others (in fact almost all the other potentially playoff-bound teams) have something to play for, even though there's only a week and a half left in the season.

In the AL East, Tampa now has a full one game lead over the Sox with yet another late-inning rally last night- the third time they've done it to them in the last 8 days! These two hook up again tonight (Wakefield vs. Garza) but don't play again in the regular season, and may not play each other again until spring training '09. Including tonight, the Sox have 11 games left, with 7 at home to close the season when the Indians and Yankees come to town. For Tampa, they host Minnesota then end on the road with 4 in Baltimore and 4 in Detroit. So by virtue of the home/away factor the rest of the way, plus the fact that the Rays have 13 games left rather than 11, I'll give the edge to the Sox here and guess they'll sneak in and win the East, with Tampa getting the Wild Card. Although if the Rays rough up Wakefield tonight, they'll be a full two up with 12 to go and that could complicate things. By the way, they're 7-1 against the Sox at home this year.

In the Central, the Sox got back to their winning ways and the Twins stuck to their losing ways, enabling Ozzie Guillen and Co. to extend their lead to 2.5 games. They have two more in New York, followed by an easy-to-look-past series in Kansas City before heading to Minnesota for what will likely be a do-or-die 3 game series for the Twins. They return home for their final 3 of '08 against Cleveland...a total of 11 games. Minnesota has a tough road ahead. Tonight, they'll try to avoid a sweep and a 4-game losing streak at Cleveland and it won't be easy because Cliff Lee is on the bump. Then, it's off to Tampa for 4 before closing out their season at home with those 3 against the Sox and then another 3 against KC. Unless they right the ship soon, their series with the Sox might be "sweep or bust," so the smart money's on Chicago to win the Central.

In the NL East last night, the Phillies, winners of 5 in a row, leap-frogged the Mets, losers of 3 in a row. And there's not much reason to think they can't continue their hot play the next 11 games. They have two more in Atlanta, then 3 in Florida, before a pair of 3-game home series with the Braves and Nationals. The road series with the Fish could be tricky, but everybody else is well below .500. The Mets have made things especially difficult on themselves because this is the so-called easy part of the remainder of their schedule. They have 2 more at Washington, then 3 at Atlanta. But those two clubs alone have taken 4 out of 5 from them since Saturday. Then for 4 games, they host the team with the NL's best record- the Cubs, before finishing up at home against the Marlins. It crazy to think it could happen again this year, but I don't see the Phillies squandering their lead, small as it is. But that doesn't mean the Mets will be golfing in October. They'll just need some help from the NL Central.

In that division, the Cubs all-but have it locked up. But the real drama surrounds the Wild Card. And what's interesting is- nobody seems to want it. The Brewers lost one of C.C. Sabathia's starts last night for just the second time since acquiring him (which is also their 5th loss in a row) and are now a half game behind New York (losers of 3 in a row) for the Wild Card. Houston (losers of 3 in a row) is now 3 back, and the Cardinals (losers of 6 in a row) and Marlins (winners of 6 in a row) are teetering on the brink of elimination as they sit 5 back. Milwaukee has 2 more at Chicago, 3 at Cincinnati, then 3 at home with Pittsburgh and 3 at home with those Cubs again. They're 9 back of the Cubs right now, so all those late-season games with the division leader are more of a punishment than an opportunity to make up ground. The 'Stros are on the road with the Fish, then close with 3 at Pittsburgh, 3 versus Cincinnati and 3 versus Atlanta. St. Louis, like the Mets, picked a bad time to hit the skids because the rest of their schedule is significantly harder than the stretch they're in right now. They have 2 more at Cincinnati, 3 at Chicago, 4 at home with Arizona (which will likely be must-wins for both teams) and finally 3 at home with the Reds. Getting swept at Pittsburgh last week killed them. As for the hot Marlins, don't count them out yet- but it's hard to imagine them continuing their "2007 Rockies" act much longer. They have 2 more with Houston (they could move into 3rd place in the Wild Card if they win both of these), then they host the Phillies, visit the Reds for one, then end up at the Reds and at the Mets. Wouldn't it be crazy if the Marlins ended the Mets season, in New York, again in 2008? This race is a bit too close to call at the moment, but with C.C. and Ben Sheets getting the ball for 5 of the Crew's last 11, I like their odds.

Out West, it's much less complicated. The Dodgers are up 4.5 games with 11 to play, and those 11 are against the Pirates, Giants, and Padres. The division is theirs to lose. Arizona's pair of extra inning losses with the Reds sting a little bit extra now, especially on the heels of being swept in L.A. And even with Webb and Haren seemingly back on track, they'll need to win just about all of their remaining 12 games to make the postseason.

Awards, Still Watching And Waiting

At this time last year, just about all of the major awards were either completely decided, or down to a two-man race. A-Rod, we all knew, was going to breeze to the AL MVP. Jake Peavy, we all knew, was going to breeze to NL Cy Young Award. And for awards like AL Cy Young, NL MVP and NL ROY, it was basically a voter coin-flip between, respectively, C.C. Sabathia and Josh Beckett, Jimmy Rollins and Matt Holliday, and Ryan Braun and Troy Tulowitzki.

If it was just that easy last year, it's just that hard this year because for a number of big awards, there is still no clear-cut favorite even though most teams have a little more than 10 games to play. That said, I'll start with some easy ones, like AL Cy Young. Cliff Lee and his baseball-leading win total and ERA should trump Roy Halladay for AL Cy Young, although it's worth pointing out Halladay has many more K's, a slightly better WHIP, a lower batting average against, and has been getting a run and a half less support than Lee all season.

For AL ROY, I'm still giving the nod to Evan Longoria, although this vote won't be as lopsided as it appeared a few weeks ago. Longoria has just 11 at-bats since August 8th because of an injury and in that time, his team's lead in the East has slipped from 3.5 games down to percentage points. Still, he's hitting, hitting for power, and playing great defense at third. That's not to take away from Jacoby Ellsbury who is closing in on 50 steals and 90 runs scored for the Sox, but I think Longoria is the more complete player right now.

And for NL ROY, Geovanny Soto (who really only has competition from Joey Votto of Cincinnati) should win this award unanimously. His OPS is .872, he has 58 extra base hits, and he's the All-Star backstop on the NL team with the best record.

Here's where it gets tricky...AL MVP. At the break, it looked like somebody from Texas was going to win this- either Ian Kinsler or Josh Hamilton. The problem now is, Kinsler hit under .260 in 120 post ASB at-bats before being shut down for the season following hernia surgery. And Hamilton, who's currently tied for the big league RBI lead, has seen his run production slow significantly from his torrid pre-break pace. That's allowed others to begin to enter the discussion, including Carlos Quentin, Justin Morneau, Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis, and Grady Sizemore.

Personally, I eliminate Quentin right off the bat because he broke his own hand on a bat in early September in the midst of a peannant race. I don't care if he is leading the AL in homeruns, I can't think of what's less valuable than that. Nobody has more RBI than Morneau, he has 3 more strikeouts than walks, and even though he's slowed in the second half too, his numbers close and late, with men on, and with men in scoring position are all excellent. Pedroia and Youkilis will likely hurt each other in the voting, although they've been the most consistent Sox hitters all year. Pedroia leads the AL in runs, has hit over .350 in the second half, his pressure splits (runners on, close and late) are very good, you have to love the 48 walks and 48 strikeouts, he plays a marvelous second base, and you might be surprised to learn he has more extra base hits than both Manny and A-Rod. Youkilis has more extra base hits than Pedroia to go along with 100+ RBI. His OPS is 4th in the AL, and his splits, while not quite as good as Pedroia, are still excellent. Then there's a man named Grady who will end up as the only 30-30 guy in the AL this year. The 93 walks are great and he's third in the AL in extra base hits. But he's slowed way down in the second half, his splits are good but not great, and he's not on a contender. If I had to vote today, I'd go...Morneau, Pedroia, Youkilis, Hamilton, Sizemore.

It gets even messier in the NL because it raises the question of exactly where astronomically productive mid-season acquisitions should fit into the discussion of awards that measure a full season's production in one league. With NL MVP, clearly Albert Pujols and his MLB-best 1.115 OPS is having another extraordinary year (not to mention the fact that he's doing it with one elbow). Chipper Jones, Lance Berkman, David Wright, Ryan Braun...they've all put up unbelievable numbers too. Then there's Manny. And to use a tired phrase, he's just being Manny again. Since switching leagues and joining the Dodgers 42 games ago, he's hitting .395 with 14 homeruns, 43 RBI, 29 runs scored, and a 1.221 OPS. And perhaps more convincing, his team went from being 2 back in the NL West to 4.5 up in the NL West! But what about the 100 games where he was in the other league? That's more than 60% of the season. Does that count for nothing? Complicating matters even further is C.C. Sabathia. Not only is he a pitcher (and thus, according to some, not a viable MVP candidate) but he too is a mid-season league changer. But he's also been a game-changer. In his 13 starts for the Brewers, he's 9-0 with a 1.59 ERA, 6 complete games, 3 shutouts, a nearly 5:1 strikeout to walk ratio, and Milwaukee is 12-1 in those games. Can a player be more valuable than that? When he pitches, his team wins 92% of the time! Then again, he also made 18 starts for the Indians, which for a starting pitcher, accounts for slightly more than half a season.

And if you don't like Sabathia for MVP, how about Cy Young? There, he's competing against a smaller field of worthy candidates, but Tim Lincecum (17 wins, ML-best 237 K's, NL-best 2.43 ERA) and Brandon Webb (NL-best 20 wins and unlike Lincecum, in a playoff chase) are stiff competition.

My feeling is, as good as Ramirez has been, there are other NL hitters who've (a) been in the league all season and (b) been as hot as Manny for as long of a stretch, like, for example, Mr. Pujols (see April and May, or the month of August). He's kept his team in the race (along with the help of Ryan Ludwick) a lot longer than they should have hung around, he's hitting over .370 in the second half, his splits are great, and his OPS is silly. It's almost 80 points higher than anyone else in baseball.

For Cy Young, Lincecum's numbers are by far the most superior of the group, but his team is 10 games back and really hasn't factored into the playoff picture all season. In other words, are his numbers worth inherently less than the numbers of a playoff-bound, or playoff-pushing pitcher? They just might be. Then again, Cy Young tends to focus more on the pitcher and not his team. That's why, no matter what happens, I think Lincecum should win this award.

But that doesn't mean C.C. gets shut out. By my math, he has 3 starts left this season, two of which will come against the division leading Cubs, and one of which will be on the second-to-last game of the season. If he wins all three he'd finish 12-0 with an ERA right around 2.00. If that happens, and the Brewers make the playoffs, I don't see how you give the MVP to somebody else. He will have been a Brewer for half the season, he will have put this team on his back and gotten them into the playoffs (again, if he finishes 3-0, the Crew will be 15-1 in his starts). No other NL player will have had such a meaningful impact on his team in 2008. Of course, if he gets bombed tonight, all bets are off. But somehow, I doubt that's going to happen.

Howie Mandell Would Be Proud...

...Because there have been more big deals this month involving big names, All-Stars, and future Hall of Famers than I can remember taking place in such a short period of time.

Consider this.

As of tomorrow, C. C. Sabathia, Rich Harden, Xavier Nady, Mark Teixeira, Ivan Rodriguez, Ken Griffey Jr., Jason Bay, and Manny Ramirez will all be wearing different uniforms than they were wearing on July 1st. And that's not including less exciting players like Joe Blanton, Damaso Marte, Casey Kotchman, Casey Blake, Kyle Farnsworth, Arthur Rhodes, Craig Hansen, and Andy LaRoche.

What else is interesting is that after all the chatter surrounding closer/set-up types like Huston Street, Brian Fuentes, and George Sherill, they're all staying put.

One last thought. With the Red Sox, Yankees, White Sox, Angels, Phillies, Marlins and Dodgers all making deadline moves, you wonder what will happen to contending teams that decided to stand pat, like Tampa, Minnesota, New York, St. Louis, and Arizona. Just because you make a trade doesn't mean you're automatically going to start winning. But if teams like the Rays, Mets, Cards and D-Backs fade in the season's final two months, they might wish they had made a move, come October.

Things Just Got Interesting

Wow, talk about story lines in the AL East.

The Rays snapped their 7-game road losing streak in Kansas City and now lead the Sox by a full game...the Sox got David Ortiz back after a nearly two-month absense but still got shut out by the Yankees 1-0...and during the game the Yankees pulled off a 6-player trade acquiring Xavier Nady (a much-needed righty bat) and Damaso Marte (a much-needed lefty reliever) from Pittsburgh.

Oh, by the way...the Rays, Sox, and Bombers are now separated by just 3 games. Tampa and New York each have 60 games remaining and Boston has 58.

Now the question is, which team (or teams if Minnesota, Texas, Detroit, Oakland, or Toronto get hot...they're all within 7.5 of the Wild Card) will be on the outside looking in come October? Does Tampa have enough experience and offense to finish strong? Will Boston's bullpen hold up and will its lineup wake up? And can New York recover from its litany of injuries and continue to ride Moose and Joba to a 14th straight playoff appearance?

I think most people were expecting August and September to be a dogfight in the AL East, but I don't think too many were expecting a third pooch in the ring.

A Manny Ramirez Fact Very Few People Know

So, apparently one of my friends picked the music Manny Ramirez has played when he comes to the plate during home games.

Impossible you say? Think again.

For the seven of you who are loyal Basebloger readers, you'll recall my trip to Fenway a month ago. During that post, I mentioned how I thought it was odd that out of every song on the planet, Manny strides to the plate to "Zombie" by the Cranberries. I assumed it would be some Latin song, or perhaps a rap song, but not a 1995 chart-topper by an Irish alt-rock band. Well, now I know why.

The story begins with a guy by the name of Scott Rosier. He works in sales for the Baltimore Orioles, and I know him through fantasy baseball. Despite how he looks in this Mustache Day 2008 picture (courtesy of "It's Not Wrong") he is neither a professional wrestler, police officer, or serial killer.

So apparently Scott was pretty chummy with the guy who is in charge of music at Camden Yards. One night they were out at a bar when Scott suggested to the guy that he play "Zombie" whenever the opposing team's pitching coach visited the mound (playing off the "in your head" lyrics). The guy loved the idea and the story goes, he immediately put it to practice while the Red Sox were in town.

Prepare yourself, because this is where the story gets fantastic.

It's the middle innings. Manny's in left, and his pitcher is in a jam, so the Sox pitching coach heads to the mound when the song comes over the PA system. Apparently (although not surprisingly, given Manny's penchant for becoming distracted at crucial points in a baseball game) he was simply mesmerized by what he heard...so much so that the next day, he actually went into the O's clubhouse, tracked down the team's music guy and asked what the song was because he absolutely loved it (and he communicated all this in Spanglish, mind you). Well, the guy ended up burning Manny a CD of "Zombie" which he proceeded to take back to Fenway and it's been his "now batting" music ever since.

That, my friends, is a story.

It's In The Books

The first half is officially over and things are starting to return to normal. Chipper Jones is no longer flirting with .400 and the Tampa Bay Rays are no longer in first place in the AL East. Still, a lot can happen in the final 65-or-so games of the '08 season and many of the major awards races are still really close. But at this point, these guys have the upper hand...

AL MVP - Josh Hamilton (.310, 21 homeruns, 95 RBI)

I had to count some dangling chads on this one, because Hamilton and teammate Ian Kinsler are separated by an even smaller margin than Dubbya and Al Gore were in 2000. Both hitters are to thank for a surprisingly good Texas team, which enters the break above .500. Both have been incredible run producers, and both have been good in the clutch. I'm giving the edge to Hamilton though because in my opinion it's inherently harder to drive in runs than to score runs. Good pitchers bear down with men on base and in scoring position and bad pitchers pitch around the middle of the order. But no pitcher has been able to contain Hamilton, who enters the break on pace to drive in 162 runs this season. Only 11 players in major league history have driven in more in a single season and with the exception of Manny Ramirez in 1999, all of them played before 1938. That's how prolific Hamilton's been. That's why he's my mid-season MVP. Also receiving votes: Kinsler, Carlos Quentin, Grady Sizemore

NL MVP - Hanley Ramirez (.311, 23 homeruns, 80 runs, 23 steals)

What doesn't this guy do well? The answer is...not much. He's one of just two players at the break with 20+ homeruns and 20+ steals (a man named Grady is the other). He has more bombs, steals, and runs scored than Lance Berkman (and is on a competitive team) and has a higher average, more runs, and more steals than Chase Utley. At the beginning of the season, I was guilty of thinking that without Miguel Cabrera, Ramirez's numbers would drop off a bit. I won't make that mistake again. Also receiving votes: Berkman, Utley, Albert Pujols

AL Cy Young - Justin Duchscherer (10-5, 1.82 ERA, 0.87 WHIP)

Perhaps this is my Oakland bias shining through here. Or perhaps it's the fact that I like pitchers who don't allow baserunners. JD's WHIP is silly. A starter allowing 6 baserunners for every seven innings pitched is absolutely unheard of these days. And if you want further proof that he's been the best of the best, look at his game log. His "worst" outing of the year is either his May 18 start in Atlanta (3 earned over 5) or his May 1 start in LA (6 runs, but only one earned over 5, in a win against the Angels). Who cares if he doesn't get many strikeouts? His stuff is dirty. Also receiving votes: Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay, Mariano Rivera

NL Cy Young - Edinson Volquez (12-3, 2.29 ERA, 126 K's)

Talk about your classic case of "boy, that trade sure benefitted both teams," Volquez has been to the Reds what Josh Hamilton has been for the Rangers. He's leading the league in ERA, he's second in wins, and he's tied for third in K's. And you thought we'd be saying that about Johan Santana this time of year? Also receiving votes: Tim Lincecum, Dan Haren, Cole Hamels, Brandon Webb

AL ROY - Evan Longoria (.275, 16 homeruns, 53 RBI)

As good as advertised, if not better. He's become Delmon Young before Delmon Young has become Delmon Young. Plus he runs a little bit (6 steals), plays a magnificent third base, and was selected to the All-Star game after just 300 big league at-bats. Not bad. Also receiving votes: Jacoby Ellsbury, David Murphy

NL ROY - Geovanny Soto (.288, 16 homeruns, 56 RBI)

So Evan Longoria is an All-Star, huh? That's nice. Soto is an All-Star starter! He's far and away the cream of the NL newbie crop, and he's leading all rookies in OPS on a first-place team. The one chink in his armor? He's only thrown out 15 of 58 base stealers- third worst for qualifying NL catchers. As long as he keeps raking, I'm sure the Cubbies will deal with it. Also receiving votes: Kosuke Fukodome, Jair Jurrjens

AL LVP - Paul Konerko (.217, 9 homeruns, 34 RBI)

Yes, he's missed about 25 games. But the White Sox have missed his big bat in the other 68 he's actually played in. I was about to write that PK is a guy who's been a lock for 35 and 100+ batted in for the last few years, but that's actually not true. His homerun total will likely drop for a 4th straight year this season, his average- for a third straight year, and his RBI total- for a second straight year. These are surprising trends for a guy who turned just 32 in spring training. Also receiving votes: Robinson Cano. Edgar Renteria, Chone Figgins

NL LVP - Andruw Jones (.164, 2 homeruns, 10 RBI)

Usually, I don't like to give these awards to guys who've been hurt, but Jones has redefined what it means to be terrible. During a 7-year stretch from 2000 to 2006, he averaged more than 37 homeruns and 109 RBI a season. Last year when he fell off to 26 and 94 with a .222 average, I thought it was an abberation and so did the Dodgers. Now, I'm not so sure because he looks so absolutely clueless at the plate. Case and point- he's striking out once every 2.8 at bats this year and has twice as many wiffs as hits! He'll be a free agent at the end of the year and his list of potential suitors will be exponentially smaller than everyone would have imagined just a few years ago. Like Konerko, his rapid decline is also surprising considering he's just 31. Also receiving votes: Eric Byrnes, Ryan Zimmerman, Khalil Greene

AL Cy Anora - Joe Blanton (5-12, 4.96 ERA, 1.42 WHIP)

At the beginning of the season the thinking was, the A's would try to move Blanton, a useful innings eater, to a playoff contender right around the trade deadline. Now, they'd probably have a hard time trading him for a bucket of pearls and an L-screen. Blanton, while still making all his starts, has been remarkably hittable this season, although it's worth noting his secondary numbers from his '08 campaign are strikingly similar to his '06 campaign when he won a career-high 16 games. That ain't gonna happen this time around. And with all the young arms in Oakland (Sean Gallagher, Trevor Cahill, Brett Anderson, Henry Rodriguez, Gio Gonzalez) JB's days as a starter in the Bay Area may be limited. Also receiving votes: Erik Bedard, Livan Hernandez

NL Cy Anora - Aaron Harang (3-11, 4.76 ERA, 1.40 WHIP)

Harang was one of the few guys in baseball who has been consistentlty good, consistently healthy, and consistently unnoticed for the last few years. Unfortunately all three of those are out the window this year. He's on the DL now with a bad forearm. It's going to take a miracle for him to get to .500. And he's unlikely to hit 200 K's or 200 IP for the first time since 2005. Oh by the way, he's already allowed 20 homeruns. Also receiving votes: Barry Zito, Brett Myers, Bronson Arroyo (huh, maybe that's why the Reds are so bad), Roy Oswalt

C.C. And Richie Rich

With the trade deadline still 22 days away, we've already seen two potentially race-changing deals involving two potential Game 1 World Series starters...C.C. Sabathia to the Brewers for slugging outfielder Matt LaPorta and 3 other prospects, and Rich Harden to the Cubs along with reliever Chad Gaudin for Sean Gallagher and 3 other prospects.

The Cubs were the better team before these deals were completed and because they made a better trade than Milwaukee did, should be the better team the rest of the season (and next year).

Yes, Harden carries an injury risk. But ever since missing a month with a strained shoulder muscle, he's been healthy, he's been as good as anybody, and in general his ceiling is much higher than Sabathia's. True, Sabathia is the reigning Cy Young award winner and true, he is a workhorse, but all things being equal, Harden has Santana-esque stuff without Santana-esque mileage on his arm, whereas Sabathia is "7 innings pitched, 3 earned, 7 K's, 2 walks" good.

Another reason the Cubs made the better trade is because, unlike Sabathia, they're not renting Harden for the next 2 and a half months. Harden's deal doesn't expire until 2009 and being the bigger-market team, the Cubs have a much better chance of re-upping with him than the Brew-Crew does with Sabathia.

And the final reason the Cubs made out better is because unlike Milwaukee, they didn't give up any front-line prospects to make their move. Matt LaPorta could be a poor man's Ryan Braun, and soon. Add him to Grady Sizemore and Victor Martinez, and Cleveland's lineup could be in pretty good shape for the forseeable future. The Cubs gave up Gallagher, speedster Eric Patterson, Matt Murton, and minor league catcher Josh Donaldson- none of whom were big pieces of the Chicago puzzle this year, although Gallagher has the best pedigree.

That's not to say that the A's got a bunch of chumps, though. In Gallagher, they get a strikeout-an-inning guy who will likely benefit from his move to the pitcher-friendly Bay Area. Patterson may take over for Mark Ellis in a year or so, Murton gives them a strong arm and bat to play alongside youngsters Travis Buck and Carlos Gonzalez in the Oakland outfield, and Donaldson is still a few years away.

Say what you will about "Moneyball" and Billy Beane. But as an A's fan, I definitely don't hate this trade. Beane has a knack for getting rid of good pitchers at just the right time. For proof, see Mulder, Mark...Hudson, Tim...and Zito, Barry. He got good value for each of those guys, as he did for Dan Haren last winter. Now, he sells Harden when he's healthy and his value is at its highest and although he didn't get a blue-chip prospect, he did get four serviceable players in return.

What'll be really interesting to see now is (a) if Oakland moves any other players (Huston Street?, Joe Blanton?) and (b) if St. Louis makes any moves in the next 3 weeks to keep up with the Joneses in the division. After all, they're just 3.5 back (a half game up on the Brewers) and starting to get their pitchers healthy.

One final thought. What's going through your head if you're a hitter on the lowly Reds, Pirates, or Astros right now?

Just My Latest Jinx

If you recall, I priased Jay Bruce's hot start back on June 2nd. At the time, he had an OPS approaching 1.700 and a 1:6 strikeout-to-walk ratio in his first six major league games.

My how times have changed.

His OPS has dropped 900 points, his strikeout-to-walk has done a virtual 180 (it's now 2.5:1), and in the 26 games since my post, he has just three multi-hit efforts.

For further perspective, consider this. The upper line shows Bruce's pre-post numbers. The lower line shows how he's fared post-post (which is a funny compound word).

13 for 22 (.591), 10 runs, 5 XBH, 6 RBI, 6 walks, 1 strikeout

21 for 97 (.216), 8 runs, 5 XBH, 8 RBI, 7 walks, 32 strikeouts

What's ironic about all this is that "the real" Jay Bruce is probably somewhere in the neighborhood of where he is right now with his torrid and frigid stretches included. Over 600 AB's it works out to roughly a .286, 20 homerun, 71 RBI, 91 run, 10 steal season...not bad even for a highly-touted 21-year-old. I just wish I could use my powers for good rather than evil.

I Guess I've Officially Taken Sides

My wife and I are in Boston right now, visiting friends. It's my first time in New England in years, and last night, my first-ever trip to Fenway Park. And I think I can sum up the experience in one word, "wow."

First of all, we show up around 5 o'clock- two hours before first pitch. And yet, the whole area outside the ballpark is absolutely packed. Yawkey Way, the shops, the sports bars...all jam-packed...and it's a random Wednesday in late-June.

We ate at "Game On!" and there was an hour wait to be seated, which was no problem because there was plenty of space in their standing-room-only section (although it made eating nachos interesting). Another thing that struck me inside the bar was the number of people in Red Sox jerseys or some type of Red Sox attire in general. With only a handful of exceptions, literally every person in there (again, we're talking I-sure-hope-there-isn't-a-fire-in-the-kitchen-because-someone's-getting-trampled-if-we-all-have-to-evacuate crowded) had on some sort of Sox stuff. Having grown up near Baltimore going to Camden Yards, this was a completely new phenomenon to me.

We finished our meal right around first pitch and made our way over to the park right at 7:05 to see Randy Johnson vs. Tim Wakefield, or as our friend Dave (aka Ezekiel) put it, AARP night. We had very good seats on the third base side of home plate a few sections up and I'll say this about the two hurlers. Johnson can still bring it and Wakefield's stuff breaks about 3 feet. The Big Unit was at 91-92 the whole night but hit 94 a few times later in the game and looks like he's 8 feet tall on the mound. Meanwhile, T-Dub threw one curveball that was 59 miles an hour and made, among others, Connor Jackson look like he was hitting a high-arc softball pitch for the first time ever. Oh, by the way, his knuckler is good too.

Next, to the player introductions, because a few of them were funny. Manny Ramirez (who I'm told came up to Afroman's "Because I Got High" a few seasons ago), chose "Zombie" by the Cranberries. Seriously. Every time #24 and his halfway-down-his jersey-dreads sauntered to the plate, some lady was singing "in your heaaaa-d, in your he-ah-ah-ed...zombie! zombie!" Weird. My favorite had to be Dustin Pedroia's plate music, "Dre. Day" by Dr. Dre. First of all, great song. Second of all, really funny for a balding, white, 5-foot-tall middle infielder.

As for the game, the Sox got some contributions from some unlikely places- Coco Crisp, Brandon Moss, and Kevin Cash, whose 3-run blast in the 8th all-but put it out of reach. Craig Hansen started the 9th and was wild, so with two outs and the bases loaded in a 5-0 game, Terry Francona came out to the mound to summon Jonathan Papelbon, whose face is in every Dunkin Donuts shop in New England. As soon as he started to walk in from the bullpen, they played "Wild Thing" by Steppinwolf and I have to admit, I kind of wished he had summoned me to come in and pitch. I was so pumped up, I think I probably could have touched 90 on the gun. Anyway, Papelbon got loose to "Shipping Up To Boston" by the Dropkick Murphys, the song he made famous during last season's playoffs. Then he struck out poor Chad Tracy on a series of 97 mile an hour fastballs. Poor guy didn't have a chance. Then, shocker, Fenway Park and it's nearly 40-thousand fans who all stayed until the last out, went nuts.

We visited the team shop after the game just for fun and it, too, was packed! Our friend Monica ended up buying a pink Red Sox thong for a friend's upcoming bachelorette party (sure it was for a friend, Mon) which was also funny. Then we left.

So getting back to the title of this post. I've never been to Yankee Stadium. But I don't think I can imagine a better environment to watch a baseball game than Fenway. Maybe it's the same in the Bronx as it was here last night, but I find it hard to imagine. And although I'm still officially an Oakland A's fan, I must consider myself leaning Massachusetts in the whole Yanks/Sox rivalry, largely thanks to my experiences last night.

Time To Go Closet-Digging

Remember these from 1993? The All-Star game is in Baltimore. Cito Gaston is managing the AL. Mike Mussina is sitting in the bullpen, waiting, waiting, waiting, but never gets called on to pitch. Gaston, instead, uses his own closer, Duane Ward to finish off the NL. T-shirts are promptly born.

Well, he's back, so I'd expect these shirts to start popping up all over Charm City too, especially July 21-24 when the Jays come to town.

I'll say this. I had no idea the O's were 4.5 games up on Toronto for 4th place in the AL East and just a game back of the Yankees for 3rd. Impressive!

Being Curt About Schilling

Right shoulder surgery will end Curt Schilling's 2008 season before it ever started, and it may end his career. That's all according to #38 himself. Assuming he has thrown his last pitch (personally I think it's too early to say he has) let's examine his Hall-of-Fame resume so far.

His 3,116 career strikeouts are good for 14th all-time. There are four people ahead of him who aren't Hall of Famers, although Randy Johnson and Greg Maddux will be five years after they retire. Roger Clemens is the third, and he's anyone's guess. The fourth is Bert Blyleven and he has nearly 600 more.

What Schilling really lacks is an impressive number of regular season wins, largely due to injuries and his decade spent in Philadelphia. His 216 W's don't even put him in the top-75. He's in Charlie Hough/Kenny Rogers/Kevin Brown territory with that win total, although there are more than a dozen pitchers who got into the Hall with even fewer victories.

He won 20 or more three times. That's also good, but not great. And the fact that he was never a Cy Young Award winner doesn't help either, although he was runner-up on three separate occasions and finished fourth in the voting another time. He appeared in six All-Star games, but never more than three in a row, so he wasn't exactly a staple there.

Up until this point, I'd say he's a long-shot for Cooperstown. But what I haven't mentioned is what's he done in October. And what he's done in October has been exceptional. He has three World Series rings, an 11-2 career postseason record, 2.23 postseason ERA, and 120 strikeouts in 133 1/3 IP. His totals for wins, winning percentage, strikeouts, and innings pitched all rank in the top-10 all-time, meaning it is not unreasonable to make the argument that Schilling has been one of the best postseason pitchers ever. And it is for that reason that I think Schilling deserves a place in the Hall.

He may not be a first-ballot guy. And he may not be on the level of contemporaries Johnson, Maddux, Glavine, Smoltz or Rivera, but Schilling still deserves a spot, even if he never throws another pitch.

Statistical Oddities

Today is June 11. Most teams have played about 65 games, meaning we're roughly 40% through the 2008 regular season. Yet, there's still some awfully weird stuff happening, aside from the fact that Tampa has a 3.5 game lead over Oakland for the AL Wild Card.

Here are a few of my favorite examples...

*Milton Bradley, a career .278 hitter, has the highest batting average in the American League (.338).

*In nearly 220 at-bats, Chipper Jones is still hitting .420. He needs to hit approximately .387 the rest of the season to finish up at .400.

*The top 2 pitchers in the AL in wins right now (Cliff Lee and Joe Saunders) already have more wins this season than they did all of last season.

*Entering this season, Edinson Volquez had given up 64 earned runs in 80 career innings. This season, he's given up 14 earned runs in 81 innings, en route to the lowest ERA (1.56) in baseball.

*Ryan Howard has 38 more strikeouts (89) than hits (51).

*Miguel Cabrera is tied for 29th in the league in homeruns, 17th in RBI, and 32nd in batting average. Last year he was 5th, 3rd, and 8th.

*Adam Dunn and Jack Cust are hitting .240 and .247 respectively but their on base percentages are .406 and .407 respectively!

*Four of the top-10 strikeout pitchers in baseball (Sabathia, Harang, Billingsley, Burnett) have losing records.

*Jacoby Ellsbury has more walks than strikeouts and more steals than RBI.

*Joey Votto is on pace to commit 20 errors this season at first base. Kevin Youkilis has one error at first base in 185 games over the last two seasons.

*And perhaps my favorite...Nate McLouth has more extra base hits this season (37) than every single All-Star from 2007 except Chase Utley (41).

Johnny On The Spot

Even though his team is playing more than 1200 miles away in Texas, I'd be willing to bet if there's a brawl in tonight's Orioles/Blue Jays game in Toronto, Jonny Gomes will find a way to be in it. After all, he manages to be a part of every other fight.

He's #31 in the picture above, pounding on Coco Crisp, who charged the mound after being plunked by James Shields, who hit Crisp because Crisp (in the minds of most members of the Rays) slid in too hard on Akinori Iwamura in Wednesday night's game, who is coincidentally the same guy victimized by a hard slide in spring training by New York Yankee Shelly Duncan, a slide which prompted another brawl, which also featured Gomes (got all that?).

After hearing about the brawl in the car last night, my initial reaction was that the Rays (in a Teddy KGB voice from the movie "Rounders") "von't be pooshed a-round" anymore...that their newfound aggressiveness and penchant for fisticuffs are somehow derived from a decade of doormat-dom. Turns out, I'm right. Quoting Shields, "We've been getting stomped around the last 10 years and it isn't going to happen anymore."

Jonny Gomes will probably try to sucker-punch me for saying this but Shields wasn't on the 63-99 Tampa team from 1998 (led by Fred McGriff and Rolando Arrojo). He was a 16-year-old attending Hart High School in Santa Clarita, Calirfornia, where he was most likely not a Rays fan.

With Apologies To Jay Bruce Owners...

Sorry, but I'm about to jinx the heck out of your boy.

In his first 6 games, JB has 13 hits, 6 walks (compared to just one strikeout), 3 doubles, 2 homeruns, 6 RBI, 2 stolen bases, he's scored 10 times, and his OPS is 1.690.

Over the remainder of this season, that projects to a .591/37/111 line with 185 runs scored, 56 doubles, 37 steals, and 111 walks. Oh, and he's been able to legally purchase alcohol for 2 months.

Does anybody know why Dusty Baker stuck with Corey Patterson as long as he did?

I Love This Kid

Yes, I'm still alive and so, apparently, is the good 'ol Baseblogg. That's why I wanted to make my comeback post about "The Kid," Ken Griffey Jr. and his pursuit of 600 career homeruns.

Here's a guy who, in an era where seemingly everybody is tainted by steroid suspicion, has been remarkably productive and remarkably free from controversy. Yes, he was Mr. Glass from 2001 to 2006, missing an average of 70 games a season. There's no question that lost time has kept him from joining an even more elite class of players, a class he was seemingly destined for in the 90s. Based on his career averages, he lost about 100 dingers to those injuries, meaning, if healthy, he would be one away from 700, not 600.

Either way, when you look at the players who have made it close to, or surpassed 600 recently (Bonds, Sosa, and Palmeiro), it'll be nice to have an undeniably legit one in the group. I just hope it's soon.

Closing Time

The Nationals are undefeated. The Tigers are winless. It's early. But if there's been any theme at all these first few days of '08, it's been late-game meltdowns by "closers." I use quotation marks because there's a decent shot many of these guys will be middle relievers by the All-Star break.

Last night, Trevor Hoffman picked up right where he left off in '07, giving up 3 of his 4 runs on a Lance Berkman homerun, en route to a 9-6 Padres loss. Also last night, Brandon Lyon entered the 9th against the Reds with a 5-3 lead, but didn't retire a batter before giving up a 3-run walk-off to Edwin Encarnacion.

The night before that, Josh Hamilton took J.J. Putz deep for what proved to be a 2-run game winner. The M's promptly placed Putz on the DL with inflamed cartilage near his ribcage.

Monday, we saw a pair of "closers," Kerry Wood and Eric Gagne, give up 3-spots in the top and bottom halves of the 9th. The 0-2 Cubs proved their bullpen is, in fact, worse, when Bob Howry allowed another run in the top of the 10th, and the Brew-crew won 4-3. And perhaps the most Chernobyl-esque meltdown came in Philadelphia, courtesy of the never-reliable Tom Gordon. Flash gave up 5 runs on just 20 pitches to the jugger-not Washington offense as the Phils lost 11-6.

That's six multi-run 9th-inning implosions in just 35 games played, and it's not even counting Huston Street's blown save in Japan, or Jon Rauch's blown-save-turned-win Sunday night after Ryan Zimmerman's walk-off. The only reason Rauch was in the game was because Chad Cordero hurt himself warming up and hasn't pitched yet.

There's no way to know if this trend will continue, or for how long. But I do know this. San Diego, Arizona, Seattle, Chicago, Milwaukee, and Philadelphia need to have a steady 9th inning man or they'll all miss the playoffs. There's just too much talent in their respective divisions.

And So It Begins...

It's baseball season.

Not just in Japan. Not just in China, Mexico, or another country that isn't spelled A-M-E-R-I-C-A. It's baseball season here, and that's exciting. That's not to say that I object to teams playing regular season games overseas, because I don't. It just makes me a little jealous. But it also makes me feel quite comforted to know that after a tumultuous offseason, the next 7 months will be about walk-offs and wild pitches, not steroids and subpoenas (that said, I did just buy Jose Canseco's new book, although I haven't started reading it yet).

Among today's 14 games, we'll see Johan Santana's New York Mets debut, Erik Bedard's Seattle Mariners debut, Joe Torre's Los Angeles Dodgers debut, and Joe Girardi's New York Yankees debut (along with the last-ever home opener at Yankee Stadium). There are potential pitchers' duels between Brandon Webb and Aaron Harang in Cinncinnati, Roy Oswalt and Jake Peavy in San Diego, and Ben Sheets and Carlos Zambrano in Chicago. We'll get a first look at the new-look, high-octane Detroit offense.

And if last night's US opener (complete with a new ballpark, Presidential first-pitch, and walk-off homerun) is any indicator, this season is going to be another memorable one.

Rich Predictions, With Conditions

Much to the delight of Oakland fans, and to fantasy owners who took a chance on the oft-injured #40, Rich Harden dazzled in his first start of 2008, limiting the Red Sox to one run (a Manny Ramirez dinger...p.s. this guy is going to have a huge '08) over six innings. He also struck out 9 and earned the win, as the A's split with Boston in Japan.

I know I've said in the past that I think Oakland will lose upwards of 90 games, and I'm not prepared to go back on that after their 1-1 start. But I'm am prepared to make a bold, if not condition-laden, prediction.

#1 If Harden can have a full season (he's never made 32 starts or thrown 190 innings, but based on the fragment seasons he's put together as a starter since 2003, his projected numbers over 34 starts would be...203 IP, 188 K, 88 BB, 1.27 WHIP, .218 BAA... his projected 14-8 record and 3.64 ERA seems conservative based on the other numbers)...

#2 If Bobby Crosby can play in 150 games (he's averaged 106 in each of the last 4 seasons so don't hold your breath)...

#3 If another hitter comes out of nowhere, a-la Frank Thomas '06 and Jack Cust '07, and has a surprise season (Emil Brown appears to be the early front runner with his homerun and 4 RBI through two games)...

#4 If they get contributions from "The Gonzalezes" this year (outfielder Carlos was acquired from Arizona in the Dan Haren trade, is drawing Carlos Beltran comparisons, and is Baseball America's #22 overall prospect; lefthanded pitcher Gio was acquired from the White Sox in the Nick Swisher trade, led the minors in K's last year and is BA's #26 prospect)...

#5 If LA's pitching injuries persist (John Lackey's already out for the first month, and Kelvim Escobar's career may be over)...

#6 And if Seattle's pitching falls apart (Erik Bedard and Felix Hernandez, while full of promise, are not Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling circa 2001, just yet)...

...then the A's could be in the hunt for October all season long. Then again, if very few of the 6 big if's don't pan out, they'll likely battle it out with Texas for the AL West doormat. We'll know more 160 games from now.

Huston, We Have A Problem

Major League Baseball's regular season is underway in Japan, and it's off to a start Oakland A's closer Huston Street would like to forget. He blew the save in the 9th when he gave up Brandon Moss' first career homerun, a game-tying shot. Then in the 10th, he gave up a 2-run double to Manny Ramirez (Manny's second of the game) and Oakland went on to lose 6-5.

While I'm bashing Street, Jonathan Papelbon's debut in the Far East was nothing to write home about either. He nearly blew the save himself in the bottom of the 10th, allowing a run-scoring double to Emil Brown (Oakland's version of Manny Ramirez, I'm sad to say). The A's actually had the tying run on second and the winning run on first when JP got Kurt Suzuki to ground out, bringing an end to the ballgame.

Game 2 is tomorrow at 6:05 A.M. Eastern and it's an intriguing starting pitching matchup...Jon Lester for the Sox, Rich Harden for the A's. Oakland is still considered the "home" team for that one. After that, the next real game is March 30 when the Braves visit the Nats' new stadium on ESPN's Sunday Night Baseball. And on Monday, there are 14 regular season games.

Other performances of note from today's game...

Jack Cust, 0-4, 4 K's

Jason Varitek, 0-4, 3 K's

Travis Buck, 0-5, 2 K's

Daric Barton, 0-2, 3 BB, 2 R

Jack Hannahan, 2-4, HR, 2 RBI

Dice-K, 5 IP, 2 ER, 5 BB, 6 K's

Good!

This seems about right.

Why People Hate The New York Yankees

"It's just disheartening. It's spring training. I just don't understand. I told all my players to play hard, but when you do something like that you take your chances that you will get someone hurt."

That's what new, New York Yankees manager Joe Girardi said four days ago after a play at the plate where Tampa Bay second baseman Elliot Johnson plowed into Yankees' catcher Francisco Cervelli in the 9th inning (starters no longer in the game), breaking Cervelli's wrist and sidelining him 8-10 weeks in the process. If you've never heard of Johnson or Cervelli before, there's good reason. Combined, they have zero at-bats in the bigs. Johnson just turned 24 and Cervelli just turned 22. Neither were expected to make the team's opening day rosters.

Don Zimmer immediately responded to Girardi's comments, saying they sounded un-Girardi-like.

"You block the plate. If I slide into him and break a leg, nothing is said. Instead of breaking my leg, I bowl him over and it's not the right play? Well, to me it is the right play, spring training, or no spring training. Play the game the right way. To me, our kid played it the way he thought it was right, and I think it was right," Zim said.

And Zimmer is right, especially considering what the Rays are trying to do- have their first winning season in franchise history. You don't accomplish that by letting Girardi's message of "play hard some of the time, just don't get hurt" be your organizational mantra. The Rays don't have New York's history, talent, or budget, so they're going to have to play hard to win. Johnson is trying to make a good impression on his organization by being gritty. Not dirty, gritty. There's a difference. And for that matter, Cervelli was trying to be gritty too, by blocking the plate. Obviously Johnson wasn't trying to break Cervelli's wrist, but that's what happens sometimes when a catcher blocks the plate.

Nevertheless Girardi said there wasn't any bad blood between the two AL East clubs. But it now appears he may come in a close second to former Governor Eliot Spitzer for the title of Biggest Hypocrite in New York.

This was the scene Wednesday in the second inning (mind you, less than 10 outs from the first pitch, starters still playing). Despite being warned before the game, Yankee hurler Heath Phillips (not a candidate for the rotation) drilled Rays' top prospect Evan Longoria with a pitch (the projected opening day third baseman). Phillips was ejected and both dugouts were warned again, but apparently Shelley Duncan (and Girardi, perhaps) didn't get the message, because Duncan went spikes-up into Rays' infielder Akinori Iwamura (another starter). Duncan was ejected, then tackled by Jonny Gomes who came racing in from right field and both benches emptied.

Duncan hinted he was going to do something meat-headed or dirty (not gritty) right after the collision at home a few days ago.

"They showed what is acceptable to them and how they're going to play the game, so we're going to go out there to match their intensity, or even exceed it," he told reporters after Cervelli-gate.

What his quote basically says is, "we're going to exceed their intensity by playing dirty."

A gritty player doesn't need to tell everyone how hard he's going to play, because he just goes out and does it. But that's not what Duncan did because he's a non-starter, goon. He's 6'6'', 225 pounds, 28 years old, and has 74 career at-bats in the majors. If he gets hurt it doesn't matter. So he either took it upon himself to avenge a guy whose name he probably didn't know a month ago, or he was sent in to do his manager's dirty work.

The biggest problem I have here is the fact that Duncan, Girardi, or both, specifically targeted Tampa's starters- Iwamura and Longoria. It wasn't Jorge Posada who got plowed into four days ago. It was a guy who was going to be in high-A ball. That's playing dirty and trying to injure half of Tampa's starting infield.

Collisions at the plate are part of the game. They happen. Nobody scripts them out ahead of time. And in most cases, nobody involved in one does so with malicious intent. A runner wants to score, a catcher wants to tag him out. But throwing at people and going in spikes-high...those actions are just the opposite. They're premeditated, malicious, and dirty.

Thankfully, nobody got hurt during today's exchanges and no punches were thrown. But it will be interesting to see if the Yankees continue to be as petty as they've been so far when these teams hook up in the regular season, April 4 in the Bronx. It was also be interesting to see if Tampa decides to retaliate a little higher up the totem pole...i.e. against one of the Yankees' starters, not Shelley Duncan.